Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #p1

Most recents (24)

📍A revealing outbreak among gold miners infected with #P1 #GammaVariant in French Guiana—55% of 44 infected—no severe but 87% symptomatic—65% fever, 22% difficultly breathing. Attack rate was 60% in fully Pfizer-vaccinated, 75% in unvaccinated miners.🧵…
2) It all likely started with an asymptomatic index case… “Patient 40 could be the index case-patient; he reported visiting his family the previous week and had an asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection with Ct of 33–35.” 👀—a very low viral load index that triggered the cluster!
3) Any vaccine cold chain break? No. “Several BNT162b2 batch numbers were involved. Vaccine temperature had been monitored and electronically recorded by LogTag Analyzer (LogTag Recorders, without any break in the cold chain.”
Read 15 tweets
⚠️Confirmed—#DeltaVariant is by far the *most contagious** variant found to date, with a transmissibility that is ~2x faster than older strain. #P1 is 2nd fastest, says @WHO study.🧵

📍#B117 #Alpha—29% faster

📍#B1351 #Beta—25%

📍#P1 #Gamma—38%

📍#B16172 #Delta—97% #COVID19 Image
2) “Effective reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern/interest compared against each other, 64 countries, data until 3 June 2021”… Image
3) “Of the six variants currently designated as VOI, five were considered in our analysis and among these, only B.1.617.1 (#Kappa) and B.1.525 #Eta demonstrated a statistically significant increase in the effective reproduction number of 48% and 29%, respectively.” Image
Read 29 tweets
Agonizing decisions for pregnant moms Brazil 🇧🇷 maternity wards as #COVID19 is killing hundreds of moms and babies—no exaggeration. “Remove baby too early and you risk them dying outside the womb, remove them too late & they die from a lack of oxygen.”😢🧵…
2) “doctors forced to deliver her baby son who was pressing up against her disease-ridden lungs.
It was too late. Ms. Souza, an otherwise healthy 30-year-old, died three weeks after the caesarean section.”
3) “She didn’t get to hold her newborn, who was whisked away for fear she would infect him, or say goodbye to her 4-year-old son.
“She was so young, I can’t make sense of it,” said her husband. “Our sons will have to grow up without the affection and protection of a mother.”
Read 10 tweets
Caution: Uruguay is 1/3 fully vaccinated & >50% 1-shot. Yet, it still has among the highest per capita #COVID19 mortality. Why? “If you do not limit mobility, do not do more PCR tests & do not track contacts, vaccine alone” not enough! #P1 variant bad too.…
2) Here is Uruguay 🇺🇾’s sky high mortality. It exceeds Brazil 🇧🇷 per capita, and was once tied with UK 🇬🇧. It’s still 40% higher than US’s earlier winter peak. That’s also with testing limitations.
3) Which vaccine does Uruguay mostly use? CoronaVac (by SinoVac), same one used by neighbors Chile 🇨🇱 and Brazil 🇧🇷

CoronaVac vaccine reduces coronavirus mortality by 97% and reduced infection with #COVID19 by 57%…
Read 3 tweets
#CoronavirusUpdate 2021/6/1🇫🇷仏AFPが新型コロナ変異株のファクトファイルを公開。これまでの変異株をWHO指定の呼称「アルファ」「ベータ」「ガンマ」…で表記。興味深いことに #B16171 「カパ」についてはそこから派生した #B16172 を「デルタ」と表記。これではすぐに24字を使い果たしそうだ。
AFPはWHOが「懸念される変異株」(VOC)としてαアルファ・βベータ・γガンマ・δデルタ型とした4株のうち最初の3つと4つ目の「デルタ」を明確に区別。 α型 #B117 β型 #B1351 γ型 #P1 ら3変異株はいずれも #N501Y レセプターに変異がある型で、β型、γ型は #E484K #K417N レセプターに変異がある型と。 Image
一方、δデルタ型 #B16172 変異株は #E484Q #L452R レセプターに変異がみられる型であり、なぜかκカッパ型が #B16171 を指すようだが、このインフォグラフィックを正しく読めているのならば、 これら2種のレセプターに変異がみられる型が3系統存在する。

変異株の“進化“は止まることを知らない。 Image
Read 8 tweets
🧵Acerca de #Sinovac y el #CarnetVerde hay varios puntos que @ministeriosalud no ha aclarado desde hace meses y que es imperioso que se haga previo a pensar en algo como un #pasaportecovid #Covid_19
1)Antes que nada aclarar que la vacuna por definición NO previene contagios, previene la enfermedad. Hoy tenemos 60% de personas vacunadas pero alta circulación viral
2)El Minsal aun no aclara los datos reales de eficiencia de la #VacunaCOVID19 #sinovac Se presentó un dato preliminar dl 67% basado en individuos sintomáticos PCR+ en fonasa (no se incluye los sospechosos ke son muchos)
Read 11 tweets
#B1617 ARRIVAL—we just now learn that the #B1617 Indian variants first arrived in NYC in April 5-11th, but retroactively reported now. It has grown in NYC, just as #P1 from Brazil 🇧🇷 also increases in %.

HT to shrewd eyes @perdidostschool @maslowsneeds…
2) there is a ton of concern about the specific #B16172 sub lineage of #B1617, because it is even faster transmission than the already faster #B117. This was a warning this week from the U.K. 🇬🇧 govt report.
3) To be clear, if that is true, it could mean #B16172 is one of the fastest if not fastest variants identified to date… 2.4x faster than original.
Read 4 tweets
ONLY VACCINES?—What if we dropped all masks/mitigation, and only rely on vaccines? Well, with 70% fully vaccinated, even if vaccines have 97% efficacy against all transmission (they don’t)—we can only stop Wuhan 1.0 slower strain. Forget #B117/#P1/#B1617.🧵

(HT @GosiaGasperoPhD)
2) However, the math to stop #COVID19 completely changes if we add masks and other public health motivations. Even with lower transmission efficacy vaccines, even with more faster contagious variants—when combined together, vaccines + masks + mitigation can hold back surge!
3) the main leakage with the vaccine only approach is that asymptomatics keep spreading even if vaccines work for severe #COVID19 disease. And it will leak to the vulnerable.
Read 4 tweets
Qu'est-ce que le variant #B16172 qui pose problème aux anglais ?

C'est un variant dit "indien", qui s'est répandu en Inde en quelques semaines, avec un avantage de transmission de 60% vs #B117 (variant UK dit Kent), déjà 50% plus avantagé vs la souche #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 de 2020
Que sait on de #B16172 ?

Que sur GISAID, une base de données qui donne accès complet aux données de séquençage génomique, aux données cliniques et épidémiologiques,

ce variant est en nette augmentation au RU, après l'Inde (…)

Que l'OMS et le @PHE_uk ont classé le 11 mai ce variant comme VOC (Variant of Concern, ou variant préoccupant), le stade au dessus du VOI (Variant of interest, variant à suivre)…
Read 9 tweets
📍My god… the upgraded warning #B16172 variant (magenta) is surging so fast. Epidemiologists now estimate it is 60% faster than even #B117 UK/Kent variant, which is already 50% faster. If true, it could make it fastest transmission one to be found worldwide. Thread 🧵. #COVID19 Image
2) #B1672 has become quite dominant in India 🇮🇳 sequenced samples in @GISAID data. And it is projected to take over further by June. Figure from @TWenseleers.

Some say it could be due to sampling, but Tom doesn’t think so because #B16171 wouldn’t be selectively withheld. Image
3) @TWenseleers used his methods from earlier paper to estimate the new #B16172 transmission being 60% fast than the U.K. Kent #B117 variant.
Read 14 tweets
The WHO declared a coronavirus variant first identified in India, B.1.617, as a “variant of concern,” the agency’s fourth such designation…
One can understand the gravity of this announcement: The Indian variant, #B1717 is now clubbed with UK #B117, SA #B1351 & Brazil’s #P1
I think this data is saying "Take B.1.617 very seriously and surge test, contact trace, support isolation of cases & contacts, ring vaccinate - NOW" @chrischirp Look, experts from UK are sounding alert on a variant originated from here! And what was our response?
Read 6 tweets
#P1 American infiltration… over 50% of sequenced cases in Illinois is now the Brazil-origin #P1 variant. It really snuck up fast. P1 is surging in many other US states too, in addition to BC & Alberta 🇨🇦.

(Ht @JPWeiland) #COVID19
2) P1 has been steadily increasing in the US. Faster rise than B117 relatively.
3) not trying to be alarmist… but when you see #P1 trending up in so many states, often faster than other variants, it’s not isolated damnit. It’s time to get cautious. We don’t want a Brazil 🇧🇷 crisis in the Us.
Read 3 tweets
⚠️Don’t ignore—

"Ignoring variants today, suggesting they aren't important, leads us to ignore variants tomorrow.

Ignoring the variants of tomorrow is potentially a f***ing big mistake!"

…says Dr. @michaelmina_lab,
Harvard immunologist & epidemiologist
#COVID19 #vaccinate #P1 ImageImage
2) “variants are extremely concerning. Most data at this point shows anywhere from a 10-fold to a 30-fold reduction in nAb against the variants”
3) “When we mix these variants with elderly immune systems that will wane - we will see new cases emerge amongst fully vaccinated vulnerable in our communities this year. it will be bad in this fall and it will lead to outbreaks and deaths again.” 🔥
Read 5 tweets
📍VARIANT TAILORED VACCINE—Moderna announced that a variant-tailored 3rd dose of the NIH-Moderna vaccine greatly boosted antibody levels in volunteers in a new study. The updated vaccine, tailored against the #B1351 variant from 🇿🇦, worked best.🧵 #COVID19…
2) Earlier research, done in petri dishes, suggested the B.1.351 variant was able to partially reduce the effectiveness of leading vaccines, including from Pfizer and Moderna.…
3) How much did the #B1351 variant decrease neutralization from Pfizer and Moderna vaccines? A lot. 20-30x fold drop for Moderna. And 30-40x fold drop for Pfizer - akin to a completely unrelated distant bat coronavirus. While not equal to efficacy, this is a big drop. See 🧵
Read 11 tweets
Sobering—“It is already clear that the virus is changing too quickly, new variants are spreading too easily & vaccination is proceeding too slowly for herd immunity to be within reach anytime soon.”

➡️ Vaccine hesitancy hurts public health.🧵 #COVID19…
2) I don’t like this— “daily vaccination rates are slipping, and there is widespread consensus among scientists and public health experts that the herd immunity threshold is not attainable — at least not in the foreseeable future, and perhaps not ever.”
3) “rather than making a long-promised exit, the virus will most likely become a manageable threat that will continue to circulate in US for years to come, still causing hospitalizations and deaths but in much smaller numbers.”

➡️I don’t like waving this surrender flag.
Read 21 tweets
What is the fastest growing variant in the US currently? Not #B117 anymore (now #2)—it’s actually the #P1 variant from Brazil 🇧🇷.

So @NYCHealthCommr Dr @davechokshi is indeed correct when he rightfully pointed out #P1 is “growing” in New York City. #COVID19

(Figure from @trvrb)
2) In these states, #P1 variant is rising as fast or faster than even #B117. Look at Illinois especially, #P1 is now over 30% of all cases suddenly.

Most of these places as well vaccinated as NYC. Yet #P1 still growing.
3) Why so I worry about the #P1 variant so much? Because this is the estimated approximate efficacy against transmission by the major vaccines, according to @AliHMokdad of the renowned @IHME_UW epidemiology institute.

Zoom in—right column.
Read 8 tweets
Ummmm… #P1 🇧🇷 variant’s case fraction % in New York City just rose over 30% in just one week. Any others growing? Not really—#B117 (while more common) only rose tiny bit, and the NY variant #B1526 is mostly flat.

I’ve seen this movie before—in BC🇨🇦—it didn’t end well. #COVID19
2) that said, NYC is more heavily vaccinated than BC 🇨🇦. Let’s hope it’s enough to hold back any #P1 surge. I’m just trying to spot signals. And a 30% relative jump is notable in just a week.
3) BC’s #P1 started slow, but then it became a huge problematic of an outbreak.
Read 6 tweets
Estamos en #cuarentena pero c/movilidad -20% de la normal La positividad sigue entre 8,5-10% y #UCI llenas El jueves, se levanta la cuarentena p/10 comunas RM aunque parece que ya se levantó hoy de la cantidad de autos. Mi pregunta ¿cl es el plan p/disminuir los contagios? 1/8
1) sabemos que las #cuarentenas dinámicas no funcionan y sólo alargan la agonía, ¿xke insistir? 2/8
2) sabemos que abrir oficinas y escuelas aumenta hasta 20 veces el riesgo de contagio sg los experimentos de los especialistas 3/8…
Read 9 tweets
Brazil’s largest health nonprofit warns—pandemic is getting younger in Brazil. @fiocruz_en says 🇧🇷 is facing health system collapse & the #P1 pandemic is now affecting younger age groups: 30 to 39 years old, 40 to 49, and 50 to 59 more than ever. #COVID19…
2) “The Bulletin points to the fact that the pandemic is gaining a new face in Brazil: it is now rejuvenated. The study shows there has been a significant increase in the rate of Covid-19 cases in the age groups 30-39, 40-49, and 50-59, as observed in the first months of 2021.
3) “the concentration of cases is shifting to younger ages.
The researchers emphasize that since the beginning of the second wave, on the 46th epidemiological week (between 8 to 14 November 2020), health services have been seeing more young people with symptoms.
Read 9 tweets
1 million #COVID19 **deaths** projected in India 🇮🇳 by August 2021. The model even assumes vaccines to will bring it under control by May 17th (peak deaths).

God help us. God help India.

(Projections by the world renowned epidemiology center @IHME_UW)…
2) the worse case is 1.04 (95% CI 840k-1.25 mil) by August 1st.

Even with universal masks and vaccine rollout, it will likely be 878k (95% CI: 728k-1.07 mil).
3) How many projected global #COVID19 deaths? 5 million or so by August 2021.
Read 8 tweets
First reinfection death in Brazil. The 39 year old male was first infected with #P1 variant. Then 3 months later, infected with other 🇧🇷-origin #P2 variant. Patient died 8 days after reinfection found, in wealthiest/healthiest state of Rio Grande do Sul.🧵…
2) The sad thing was, both his brother and father had #COVID19 too. “He also visited his father at the hospital in a room shared with other COVID-19 diagnosed patients”.
3) “The second infection evolved with complications, and the patient was removed to an Intensive Care Unit (ICU) and intubated due to severe loss of pulmonary capacity. The patient unfortunately died on March 19th, 2021.”
Read 4 tweets
Nous sommes interpellé⋅e⋅s à propos de la #virulence plus élevée du #variant de #SARSCoV2 B.1.1.7 (ou #voc).

Certain⋅e⋅s y voient des études "contradictoires".

Tour d’horizon rapide avec deux études qui nous semblent solides et deux études, disons... «médiatiques».

La première étude du @bmj_latest a suivi plus de 54.000 patients et analysé la mortalité après 28 jours.

L’infection par B.1.1.7 multiplierait le risque de décès par 1,32 à 2,04 par rapport à l'infection par un virus d'une autre lignée.…

La seconde étude publiée dans @nature analyse plus de 2 millions de tests PCR et plus de 17.000 décès avec des outils statistiques pointus.

Elle conclue que l’infection par B.1.1.7 augmente le risque de décès de 39 à 72 %.…

Read 12 tweets
Irgendwie ein Deja Vu. Ich habe viele Mutationen ignorieren können. #B117 damals nicht, weil Zahlen und Rhythmus seltsam waren. #P1 aus Brasilien schon, weil da jetzt der Winter beginnt. Die Regenzeit in Indien beginnt aber erst im Juni.

Also gut... was sagen die Zahlen? (1/10)
Die offiziellen Sequenzierungen in Deutschland finden fast nicht: Bspw. 2 der 7.000 Sequenzierungen in Baden-Württemberg.

Woanders hatte ich eine Gesamtzahl von 39 gelesen. Das ist auch fast nichts. (2/10)
Der zeitliche Verlauf zeigt: Keine Auffälligkeit in der Verteilung. Aber das ist bei einer stochastisch agierenden Infektion bei niedrigen Inzidenzen häufig so (overdispersion). (3/10)
Read 10 tweets
Szenarien - THREAD über die Entscheidungssituationen jetzt, im Juni und im August.

Diskussionsgrundlage. Kritisiert gerne :)

So stellte sich die Lage für uns im Dezember dar:

#einkerzen @GrueneZonen
Da heißt schon im Dezember war klar, dass unsere Maßnahmen angepasst werden müssen.

Infektiöser & Tödlicher - das macht was mit der Gesellschaft.

Jetzt wird immer wahrscheinlicher, dass eine neue Variante bereits auf dem Weg ist. Es könnte #P1 sein, aber auch #B1617.

Wäre ich die Regierung: Ich würde Vorkehrungen treffen.

Read 10 tweets

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