Thread by @paulmasonnews

FCDO's @DominicRaab says he's "gravely concerned" by the Russian buildup on Ukraine's borders. Me too, and we should be doing everything we can to calm things down. So what's going on? 1/ Here's the Russian deployment video traced on a map citeam.org/ru-forces-near…

2/ What is Putin trying to achieve? No Western government seems to possess a clear answer. This @ICDS_Tallinn analysis says: flareup, insertion of Russian peacekeepers followed by annexation icds.ee/en/rumours-of-…

3/ Meanwhile in Belarus, the slow but steady takeover of the private sector by Russian interests, and redirection of export traffic from the EU to the Russia atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainea…

4/ Then there is the theory that, because Ukraine is starving Crimea of water, Putin intends to make a land grab out of Crimea towards the Dniepr... cnbc.com/2021/04/01/rus…

5/ The background is a) unplanned removal of Russia-friendly US president b) Ukraine moves against Russian proxy businesses and media outlets c) weeks of escalation in Donbas with sniper teams etc...

6/ Now we get Biden, Raab and other western governments saying they will "back" Ukraine? It's not a NATO member so what does this mean? If Parliament were sitting I would want a pretty clear answer from Raab about that...

7/ One of the hugely different aspects to East-West tension now, compared to the Cold War, is the absence of hotlines and the potential for misunderstanding... esp with parts of the Russian media buzzing with accusations that Ukraine intends to attack...

8/ BTW if you read the Integrated Review, its clear the UK might have an armed force that Russia could worry about 10 years time but has for now morally disengaged from European security and defence. Hence Tory newspapers very silent on Ukraine/Russia right now...

9/ I keep saying it: the biggest threat to the UK is the breakdown of the rules-based global order, yet we have a government that's connived at/resigned to the breakdown of that order. Watch this space liveuamap.com