North Carolina is an interesting case study, because rurals have become a lot redder and the urban cores have become far bluer, but the suburbs haven't moved as much as elsewhere. Meanwhile, Black turnout in the rurals *tanked* in 2020, which hurts Democrats in such a close state 
Chart is PVI-adjusted. Data was gathered by @stewroel, who knows way more about this state than I do, so go drop him a follow.
Another thing to note is that Appalachian rurals (in the west) have not behaved like the rest of the rurals in the state. Not so coincidentally, Biden overperformed by a decent amount in the rural west, per a demographic/partisanship regression-based model.
Basically, what happens is this: if the national environment is slightly D-leaning again in 2022 (not guaranteed but I believe it's actually more likely than not), NC is winnable for Ds provided that they hold the west margins (plausible) and drive up rural Black turnout.
preemptively saying that I don't really feel like engaging in a debate about whether 2022 is going to be D-leaning or not, because it's not going to be productive here. I'm just stating that *under this assumption*, Dems have a clear path to victory in terms of campaign strategy.
Under this lens, @EScrimshaw's point about Beasley being the best Democratic bet to activate rural Black voters begins to make a lot of sense. scrimshawunscripted.substack.com/p/scrimshaw-sp…
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