Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/11 - France - Apr 06 to Apr 12 -
#COVID19 is in red zones, i.e. deteriorating in all Départements.
Increase in mortality in most areas.
Schools closed from Tuesday for 3 weeks.
renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/11 - Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes is experiencing a rise, at high level, in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.11), increasing in mortality at high levels, for 7 more days.

Bourgogne-et-Franche-Comté are rising at high level too (1.13), with high mortality.

3/11 - Corsica is plateauing at high levels of activity, in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.04), with no expected mortality, for 7 more days.

4/11 - Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur is experiencing a rise, at high levels, in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.12), and is plateauing in mortality at very high levels, for 7 more days.

5/11 - Occitanie is experiencing a rise at high levels in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.11), and is increasing in mortality at high levels, for 7 more days.

Nouvelle-Aquitaine is rising at high level of activity too (1.10), with low mortality.

6/11 - Pays-de-la-Loire are experiencing a rise, at high levels, in their #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.13), and is plateauing in mortality at high levels, for 7 more days.

Centre-Val-de-Loire is rising at high level too (1.10), with high levels of mortality.

7/11 - Bretagne is experiencing an increase, at high levels, in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.07), plateauing in mortality at medium-high levels, for 7 more days.

Normandie is increasing at high level (1.06), while decreasing in mortality, although still at high level.

8/11 - Hauts-de-France may have reached their peak in #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.0), plateauing at high levels, while plateauing in mortality too, at very high levels, for 7 more days.

9/11 - Grand-Est is experiencing a rise at high levels in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.10), and is plateauing in mortality at high levels, for 7 more days.

10/11 - Ile-de-France seems reaching its peak, at high levels, in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.02), and is plateauing in mortality at very high levels, for 7 more days.

11/11 - Martinique is experiencing a surge, at high levels, in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.27), with high level of mortality, for 7 more days.

Guadeloupe (1.07)/Guyane (1.16) increases/rises at medium levels, with high/no mortality.

Réunion (0.98); Mayotte (0.92).

12/11 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
and @elisa_manetti

A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 4.29/100K pop
4.3 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 20 cases/day
20 < High level < 100
Very high level > 100...

13/11 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0