Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/22. Apr 06 to Apr 12 -
Daily #COVID19 epidemic forecasting for 192 countries/territories. Vaccine figures per country in summary tables.
Dashboard: renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/22. Portugal (and the United-Kingdom) have both landed in their #COVID19 safety zones, and will stay in them, R-eff=0.94 (and 0.77), with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

In PRT (and the UK), 13% (and 45%) received at least one dose of vaccine.

3/22. Ireland (and Denmark) are slowly landing towards their #COVID19 safety zone, with R-eff=0.93 (and 0.96), at medium levels, and decreasing (plateauing) in mortality, at low (very low) level, for 7 more days.

4/22 - Norway (and Finland), European champions in fighting #COVID19 are landing towards their safety zone, with R-eff=0.89 (0.85), and with very low (medium) levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

Iceland benefits from #ZeroCovid strategy, with no case, no foreseen death.

5/22. Italy is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.94), at high levels, and plateauing in mortality at very high level, for 7 more days.

Cyprus (1.12), Greece (1.08), are rising (increasing) at high level, medium (very high) mortality
Malta (0.56) is landing

6/22. Germany is taking over control of its #COVID19 epidemic activity, R-eff=1.02 at medium level, with medium level of mortality, for 7 more d.

Austria is plateauing (1.0) at high levels of activity, and high level of mortality

Switzerland did not report to JHU since Mar 31.

7/22. France (and Belgium) are increasing at high level in their #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.08 (1.05), while decreasing (plateauing) in mortality at high level, for 7 more days.

New forecast for French regions:

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1379367819842891777?s=20

LUX (1.06) in similar situation.

8/22. Czechia is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.81), although remaining at high levels of activity, and is decreasing in mortality too, with still alarming levels, for 7 more days.

Estonia (0.73), Slovakia (0.84) in similar situations.

9/22. Poland seems taking over control of its #COVID19 new contaminations (R-eff=1.01), at high level, while increasing in mortality at alarming levels, for 7 more days.

Hungary(0.89), Bulgaria(0.96), with increasing alarming mortality.
Ukraine (1.08), with very high mortality.

10/22. Croatia is experiencing a rise at high levels in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.17), and is increasing in mortality at very high levels, for 7 more days.

Bosnia-Herzegovinia is plateauing (0.96), alarming mortality
Serbia is plateauing (0.94), very high mortality

11/22. Tunisia is experiencing a surge, at medium levels, in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.29), and is increasing in mortality at high levels, for 7 more days.

Libya (1.08) is increasing at medium levels with high mortality.

12/22. Namibia is plateauing, in its #COVID19 just above its safety zone (R-eff=1.0), and is increasing in mortality, at medium levels , for 7 more days.

13/22. South Africa has landed in its #COVID19 safety zone and will stay in it, plateauing in mortality at very low levels, for 7 more days.

14/22. Qatar is rising at high levels in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.19), increasing at medium levels of mortality, for 7 more d.

Oman (1.2), Iran (1.17) are rising.
Iraq (1.04), UAE (1.03) are plateauing at high levels.
Jordan (0.86) decreasing.

Israel (0.57) safe.

15/22. Russia has almost stopped its descent towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.98), just above it, while plateauing at high levels in mortality, for 7 more days.

16/22. China, Vietnam, Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore five Asian champions in fighting #COVID19, will all remain safe, with no foreseen deaths, in the 7 upcoming days. #ZeroCovid .
Japan, South Korea, Nepal in their safety zones are facing pressure on their suppression strategy.

17/22. Philippines, (with India, Bangladesh,) are all experiencing a rise (surge) in their #COVID19 epidemic activities, with R-eff=1.12 (1.22; 1.26), at medium levels of activity, with very low levels of reported mortality, for 7 more days.

Pakistan (1.05), in its safety zone.

18/22. Canada is experiencing an increase at medium levels in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.09), with low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1378992367840149504?s=20

(Forecast for 4 provinces in the thread)
Nova Scotia, New Brunswick in #ZeroCovid green zones

19/22. The USA are plateauing in their #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.07), at high levels, decreasing in mortality, from high to medium levels, for 7 more days.

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1378989365200830465?s=20

(Forecast for 9 states)

Mexico (0.91) in its safe zone, while high mortality.

20/22. Brazil seems to have reached its peak at high level in #COVID19 new contaminations (R-eff=0.92), and plateauing in mortality at alarming levels, for 7 more days.

Argentina (1.14), Colombia (1.20) at high levels, high mortality.
Uruguay (1.27), alarming mortality.

21/22. Chile, vaccinated>40% of its population, is experiencing an increase at high levels in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.03), increasing in mortality, at very high levels, for 7 more days.

Paraguay (0.92), Peru (0.97) plateauing at high level, very high mortality.

22/22. Australia (and New Zealand), two Pacific champions in fighting #COVID19 will both remain in their safety zone with no expected death, for 7 more days.

Both countries are experiencing successful #ZeroCovid strategy (with respectively 8 and 17 cases with no death).

23/22.
A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 4.29/100K pop
4.3 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 20 cases/day
20 < High level < 100
Very high level > 100

24/22.
"Champion" country: mortality < 20 cumulative deaths/100K pop

Very low: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low < 0.10
0.10 < Medium < 0.20
0.20 < High < 0.50
Very high > 0.50
Alarming > 1.0
Very alarming > 3.0
Read also:
@KristenN_06
& @elisa_manetti
...