1/ The April 14th @coinbase direct listing could ignite the next phase of the 2021 #Bitcoin bull run.
2/ Coinbase is set to float about 115M shares. A little less than half the total shares outstanding.

3/ The pre direct listing price per share is currently trading on @FTX_Official. It's just shy of $500 a share.

This would be a $125B valuation. $57.5B of which will be publicly traded on the day of the direct listing.
4/ In addition, since this is a direct listing, the only shares being floated to public markets are existing shares held by employees and investors.

5/ If you're an early employee or investor waiting to diversify out of a large stake in @coinbase equity, where are you going to put your money?
6/ I expect a lot of this capital to flow back into #Bitcoin and other bitcoin related start ups.

In addition, the hype and legitimacy this brings to the space is underestimated.

It proves that the exit opportunities for start ups in the space are massive. VCs = 🤤🤤🤤
7/ It's looking more and more likely that March and especially the second half of March could bring phenomenal returns for #Bitcoin.

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More from @IIICapital

4 Mar
1/ My Thoughts on Macro

Over the last few weeks there has been lots of discussion around things like YCC, real rates, repo market, steepening yield curve, etc. IMO, Many people are getting stuck in the weeds and missing the big picture.
2/ Neither you or me can accurately predict short term market movements over days, weeks, or even months. However, we can accurately predict long term trends.

In today’s world, money is debt. Debt is everywhere and everyone is incentivized to get into as much debt as possible.
3/ We must continue to grow the amount of debt otherwise, if the total debt (money) begins shrinking, we enter into a sharp deflationary spiral.
Read 8 tweets
20 Feb
1/ How to Live Off Your Bitcoin 101

1. Post BTC as collateral for USD loan from @unchainedcap
2. Buy Bitcoin and short futures on @binance
3. Collect spread (currently 43% annualized)
4. Pay interest 11%
5. Earn 32%.
2/ Note these spreads can change quickly.

If Bitcoin does drop rapidly you will need to collateralize your loan. But as Bitcoin is dropping the futures spread is also likely dropping. Meaning you can close out your carry trade early and make $ profit.
3/ Since Bitcoin dropped from where you originally took your loan, you probably ended up with more Bitcoin than you started with, and you can use that to collateralize your loan.

Still a win.
Read 6 tweets
19 Feb
1/ INSIDE THE EVENT HORIZON with @MimesisCapital


2/ $1M BTC will only be the beginning.

The invention of absolute scarcity has created a massive blackhole right in the middle of the global financial system. Its gravity is so strong and so powerful that measuring Bitcoin’s “market cap” will soon not be logical or useful.
3/ First, Let’s compare two vastly different monetary technologies.

One is government fiat currency (USD) and the other is Bitcoin.
Read 16 tweets
9 Jan
Clearly a blow off top bubble here. Would not buy #Bitcoin at ≈ 2x ATH.

May 2017

1 BTC = $1,791
Clearly a blow off top bubble here. Would not buy #Bitcoin at ≈ 2x ATH.

March 2013

1 BTC = $43
Clearly a blow off top bubble here. Would not buy #Bitcoin at ≈ 2x ATH.

April 2011

1 BTC = $1.82
Read 6 tweets
8 Jan
1/ INSIDE THE EVENT HORIZON with @MimesisCapital


2/ Since March of 2020, the number of Bitcoins held on exchanges has decreased at an unprecedented pace. Image
3/ Directly before the 2017 bull run, we saw a much smaller, but similar phenomenon. In August of 2016, we witnessed total exchange balances peak at 1.06M BTC. At the beginning of 2017, 0.94M BTC remained on exchanges, meaning 120,000 BTC were removed (-11% decline).
Read 8 tweets
11 Dec 20
1/ We've all seen the massive amount of BTC being drained from exchange balances, but I've been somewhat skeptical that $GBTC could be sucking up exchange balances (not HODLers adding BTC into cold storage).

Here's a short thread of my research on this topic. Image
2/ The total Exchange Balance peaked roughly February 14th (around the same time the price peaked).

Price $10,300
Exchange Balance 2.95M BTC
GBTC Holdings 288,000 BTC
3/ Today, December 11th, the data is...

Price $18,000
Exchange Balance 2.3M BTC
GBTC Holdings 553,000 BTC
Read 9 tweets

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