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Moon Capital 🔑 Profile picture
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11 Dec, 9 tweets, 3 min read
1/ We've all seen the massive amount of BTC being drained from exchange balances, but I've been somewhat skeptical that $GBTC could be sucking up exchange balances (not HODLers adding BTC into cold storage).

Here's a short thread of my research on this topic. Image
2/ The total Exchange Balance peaked roughly February 14th (around the same time the price peaked).

Price $10,300
Exchange Balance 2.95M BTC
GBTC AUM $2.97B
GBTC Holdings 288,000 BTC
3/ Today, December 11th, the data is...

Price $18,000
Exchange Balance 2.3M BTC
GBTC AUM $10B
GBTC Holdings 553,000 BTC
4/ 650,000 BTC were removed off of exchanges since Feb 14th, 2020.

GBTC added 265,000 BTC since Feb 14th, 2020.

It is possible that a large portion of those BTC were pulled off of exchanges and added to GBTC (funds arbing the premium).
5/ This research indicates that even if ALL the newly added coins to GBTC came directly from exchanges, there is still a very significant amount of coins being moved off exchanges into cold storage (minimum of 385,000 BTC).

This is still extremely bullish for #Bitcoin.
6/ I would love to hear from @glassnode about whether GBTC holdings are included in "Exchange Balances" as GBTC does have Coinbase Custody Trust Company as their custodian.
7/ If Glassnode does include GBTC holdings in their Exchange Balances, then it would be scary bullish.

If they don't, then I'm still highly bullish.
8/ Thanks to @MimesisCapital for helping provide the resources to allow me to take the time to perform this research.
9/ Update: Thanks to @n3ocortex's quick reply, we have confirmed that $GBTC holdings are NOT included in "Exchange Balances".

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More from @Moon__Capital

Moon Capital 🔑 Profile picture
27 Nov
I think one of the best ways to store #Bitcoin is @COLDCARDwallet.

Here is a strategy for max security.

1. Use it air gapped.
2. Download and verify latest firmware (use firmware from a few months ago if you don't review the updates yourself).
3. Generate seed using dice rolls.
4. Store seed on @blockplate.
5. Export your "watch only" wallet to microusb.
6. Import your "watch only" into software wallets (I like @ElectrumWallet and @bluewalletio).
7. Make sure the receiving addresses match the receiving addresses visibly on your Coldcard.
8. Send a small amount of Bitcoin ($5) and view the confirmed transactions on your software wallet.
9. Wipe your Coldcard device's seed.
10. Use the same device or a completely different air gapped Coldcard to recover your seed.
Read 6 tweets
Moon Capital 🔑 Profile picture
20 Nov
1/ Introducing my new series: INSIDE THE EVENT HORIZON with @MimesisCapital

THREAD #1

Why is One Bitcoin Worth $18,000?
2/ $330,000,000,000 (330 BILLION DOLLARS)

That’s the total current value stored on the Bitcoin network, and it is likely undervalued by 200x-1000x (or more).
3/ In 2009, not a single Bitcoin existed. Today, over 18 Million of them exist and each one is worth $18,000 (18.5 million x 18,000 = 330 Billion Dollars of Value).

How is this possible?
Read 11 tweets
Moon Capital 🔑 Profile picture
11 Nov
1/ “BUT THEY WILL BAN BITCOIN.”

Let me quickly explain why this threat is HIGHLY overestimated and why it is NOT possible or even reasonable.

$1,000,000+ #Bitcoin is nearly inevitable.
2/ First, if someone is presenting this argument, they've conceded that Bitcoin is the world's most valuable monetary good ever discovered.

They understand that Bitcoin will become so incredibly valuable that it may threaten government itself.
3/ Many reference that private gold ownership was banned in the US in 1933.

BUT, people forget that the reason private gold ownership was banned is because the USD was redeemable for a fixed amount of gold. They needed to break the peg to expand credit (to stimulate).
Read 11 tweets
Moon Capital 🔑 Profile picture
5 Nov
As we enter #Bitcoin's next parabolic bull run from $3,000 to $1,000,000 and beyond, I'm compiling a thread (below) of all major Twitter threads written to help YOU understand what is happening.
Bitcoin is NOT a bubble. It's the world's best form of money.

Bitcoin is HIGHLY volatile. This is good.

Read 8 tweets
Moon Capital 🔑 Profile picture
25 Oct
1/ It's intuitive for smart people to see Bitcoin as a ponzi/bubble at first.

Why?

Because MONETARY VALUE is DEPENDENT on OTHER HUMANS. If you are trapped on a island alone, monetary goods (dollars, gold, bitcoin) serve no use for you.
2/ However, a fishing pole is valuable whether you're alone or not.

Like most goods, it isn't dependent on other humans to be useful.

It's a tool that will help you obtain food whether you're alone or with billions of other people.
3/ But just because Bitcoin's value is DEPENDENT on OTHER HUMANS doesn't mean it's simply a ponzi based on a "collective hallucination".
Read 7 tweets
Moon Capital 🔑 Profile picture
27 Feb
1/ The Bitcoin stock to flow model by @100trillionUSD describes that the price of bitcoin can mostly be explained by its ever increasing SCARCITY.

Today I will explain how this is rational.

$1+ Million Bitcoin is inevitable.
2/ Bitcoin is a good. A toothbrush is also a good. Certain properties make some goods better than other goods for specific use cases. A toothbrush needs to have an appropriate size, a secure handle, and soft bristles (if you plan on using it to brush your teeth).
3/ Certain goods are well suited for brushing teeth (like a toothbrush), and some goods are well suited for being used as money.

Goods that are well suited to be used as money have the following properties: durable, divisible, transactable, fungible, portable, and SCARCE.
Read 14 tweets

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