Have questions about the new "Jan 6 Capitol Attacks" study by my @CPOST_UChicago colleagues? Please see their slide deck laying out the methodology and analysis:

d3qi0qp55mx5f5.cloudfront.net/cpost/i/docs/a… Image
My methodological take?

Seems like a useful initial set of results. Image
In case you are wondering, they don't appear to "select on the DV" (they considered counties and states that did AND did not produce insurgents) ImageImage
My substantive take?

Builds on findings of work, such as the recent book by @AshleyJardina, showing whites fear a loss of status (and the political consequences of that fear)

amazon.com/Identity-Polit…
Moreover, the finding about the participants' wealth and fear over "white rights" reminds me of the Civil War era findings by @andrewbhall, @shirokuriwaki, & @ConnorDHuff in @apsrjournal: American insurgency is a tool of the (relatively) wealthy & racist

stanforddpl.org/papers/hall_hu… Image

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More from @ProfPaulPoast

2 Apr
People around the world will reflect today on the meaning of empire, rivalry, COIN tactics, and buffer states.

I'm of course referring to hearing the Passion account during Good Friday services.

[THREAD]
Just to make sure we're on the same page, the Passion account is the narrative in the New Testament Gospels (such as Mark, linked below) describing the trial and execution of Jesus of Nazareth.

quod.lib.umich.edu/cgi/r/rsv/rsv-…
For Christians, it (and the aftermath -- i.e. Easter) is central to their faith. How central? A New Testament scholar once said something to the effect of "The gospels are just passion accounts with prologues"

(maybe @BartEhrman can help me recall the exact quote)
Read 28 tweets
26 Mar
The "Ever Given" has indeed given: not just memes, but a teachable moment.

Let's explain why the global economy is extremely fragile.

[THREAD]
The @nytimes just ran a story on this very issue

nytimes.com/2021/03/26/bus…
Much work in International political economy (IPE) & International Economics discusses two extreme forms of disruption to the flows of goods & services in the global economy.
Read 27 tweets
23 Mar
Should @NATO reorient itself to counter 🇨🇳, as recommended recently by @sb_moller?

As it turns out, doing so is consistent with the original vision of the "Atlantic Pact".

[THREAD]
washingtonpost.com/outlook/chinas…
Consider three aspects of how the "Atlantic Pact" was viewed when originally negotiated.
First, it was recognized that the alliance could have a reach outside of Europe -- potentially as far as China.
Read 23 tweets
20 Mar
Should Americans be concerned about the US National Debt?

As I tell my students: No.

[THREAD]
This thread is inspired by seeing, in the wake of the $1.9 Trillion stimulus bill, much fretting over the size of the national debt.

But as @mcopelov has emphasized time and time again: such concerns are largely misplaced

Read 31 tweets
17 Mar
How much does 🇺🇸 spend on defense compared to the rest of 🌏?

That's a hard question to answer. For starters, we don't precisely know how much 🇺🇸 spends on defense (& that's the easy part).

[THREAD]
This thread is inspired by a debate several folks were having recently about comparing US defense spending to that of other countries
So how much does the US spend on defense?

One might think this is simply a budgeting and accounting exercise. That's part of it, but it's actually a conceptual exercise: what do we mean by "defense" or "national security"

jstor.org/stable/2145138…
Read 18 tweets
10 Mar
Why did the US invade Iraq in 2003?

Retaliation for 9/11? A demonstration of US power? Saddam Hussein was a threat? Bush had a personal vendetta to settle? A mistake? All of the above?

The reality is that we don't know.

[THREAD]
This thread is partly motivated by what @_danigilbert recently observed

To start, let's give some background and review the war's lead-up.
Read 53 tweets

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