Thread by @chrischirp

THREAD on English vaccine supply & what this might mean for the roadmap.

It was reported the other day that England will have relatively restricted supply for the foreseeable future
theguardian.com/politics/2021/… 1/9

This is based on the recent SAGE SPI-M modelling where the central estimate for vaccine supply was 2.7m doses a week in England from April -July and then 2m doses a week. This compares to 3.2m doses a week in February & March & the previous plan of increased supply. 2/9

This means that most of April AND May will taken up honouring second doses for the over 50s.

Under 50s won't be getting their first doses in any big numbers until June and July...

What does this mean for the roadmap? 3/9

Well, it means that for at least half of the summer term, many teachers & parents of children in school will not have the protection from a first dose.

It means that when indoor mixing is due on 17th May, over 17 million adults will still not have had a dose. 4/9

By 21 June, there are likely to be still over 13 million adults without a jab.

The govt might push ahead regardless. But by then we can go almost full whack again on first doses. So waiting another 6-8 weeks means opening up once *everyone* has had a chance of a 1st jab. 5/9

That may seem like a long time, but it is definite - we know that (given supply) we can vaccinate millions of people every week. We will know there are only 13-15 million people left to do. It is safer for them *and* their elderly loved ones if opening more waits those weeks. 6/9

It would mean sticking at somewhere between April and May's restrictions (depending on case numbers) until August instead of mid June, but shops, hairdressers, gyms & museums would be open. Outdoor socialising and (hopefully) some indoor socialising would be open too. 7/9

It would also prevent much of the summer surge predicted by SAGE modelling subgroup this week, where their central estimates were ~15K-20K more deaths this summer even with excellent vax efficacy & uptake.

And reduces argument for vax passports

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… 8/9

If the situation looks much more promising in May and/or June then we can reassess, just as we should if it looks concerning (e.g. imported new variants or surging cases risking new variants emerging).

This is what data not dates should mean... 9/9

PS the more vaccine suppy is restricted, the longer the timelines gets.

Also - if uptake is poorer among under 50's then we can offer everyone a first jab faster (as there'll be fewer jabs in arms). But at the cost of a less effective vaccine programme!