Quick lesson on the cost of poor vaccination priorities.

Vaccinating the wrong person in Ontario costs up to $5,000 per vaccine.

Sounds absurd, right? Let's run through some quick napkin math on why that might be an underestimate.

<thread> 🧵👇
2/ The economy is shut down because of a very specific demographic of people are impacted by widespread outbreaks — essential workers (less healthcare).

Teachers, grocery clerks, food processors, warehouse employees, and restaurant employees.

Shutting down is expensive.
3/ Ontario is spending $186 billion on COVID related programs, like floating small businesses over the next year.

That averages $0.5 billion per day. Then there's federal programs like CRB, EI+, etc.. Then add the lost revenue for businesses, and the cost of financing it...
4/ The debt the government is going to have to borrow to keep people going, also incurs interest until at least 2031.

It's a fair estimate, the cost of a shutdown is ~$1.5 billion per day, but let's be optimistic and say it's just a billion.

$1 billion per day.
5/ Now, back to those vaccines. Ontario's vaccinating about 100k people day now that it's shut down. They're in hyperdrive, almost 40% more than yesterday.

Even at that pace, it takes 90 days to just the first shot in all of the population. First. Shot.
6/ You're thinking the more shots in the arm, the better! Well, if that guy on Bay Street gets it, and then works at home anyway — that doesn't help the economy open any faster.

Only vaccinating necessary people that are forced to have close contact opens the economy faster.
7/ For every 100,000 people that need it, and are displaced, the economy opens up one day later — pushing recovery one day further.

That's about a billion dollars per day, conservatively. Or about $10,000 per displaced shot. Extra shots may throttle by half? So $5k/shot?
8/ Once again, this is just napkin math — it might be higher, it might be lower.

Either way, it's pretty fucking pricey when you consider the economic costs of screwing it up.
9/ It totally gets worse if you think about it too. The median person pays like, $15k/year in taxes.

Imagine a third of your money going to vaccine the wrong person that year? You could have had a lot of nice shit for that money.

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More from @StephenPunwasi

7 Apr
Communism: Here’s your identical 2 bedroom apartments, and if shit blows up, you’re going to have to line up for toilet paper.

Capitalism: Here’s your identical 1 bedroom apartments, and if things work well, you’re going to have to line up for toilet paper.
Yeesh. Snowflakes getting touchy about a Communist joke, and giving me low Marx in the humor department.
Also, my original tweet doesn't indicate a preference for either communism or capitalism.

It very clearly indicates the real problem is big toilet paper. The toilet paper plutocrats control the system, regardless.
Read 4 tweets
7 Apr
Ontario stay at home order starts Thursday.

“big box stores will be restricted to selling only essentials for in-store shopping”

Now that Walmart is impacted, Dougie will have the vaccine in everyone’s arm by next week, with strict health measures in place.

The pandemic, one year later.

New Zealand, China, Taiwan, Vietnam: Everything is back to normal! Let's party!

America: Y'all are gettin vaccines in 2 weeks. Booyah! U-S-A. U-S-A.

Canada: What did we do last year? Right... do that again. Back in your house. Close the blinds
Try and pry my essential Auntie Annie's soft pretzel from my cold, blue from a lack oxygen, dead hands, Dougie.
Read 4 tweets
6 Apr
Canada created so much moral hazard, people *cannot* see risk.

Over 1 in 5 mortgages are going to over-leveraged borrowers.

Calling it. OFSI does something before the Fed, because it's reached regulatory risk. This is way worse than the US bubble.

#VanRe #ToRe
Ahhhhh yeah, boyyy. First up to the plate with real estate cooling measures is OSFI.

The banking regulator will resume policy consultation on minimum qualifying uninsured mortgage rates beginning tomorrow.

#VanRe #ToRe
Read 4 tweets
21 Mar
I ❤️ Boomers.

Taxing the gains on a principal residence as an investment lacks "critical analysis."

As opposed to the idea of taxing the investment gains of anyone that doesn't own a home, including a generation unlikely to ever own.

That's just good business for old folks. Image
2/ Here. Keep tax exemptions on the profits of homes.

Just let our generation know where we can opt of paying for your CPP.
Boomers: Tax people that work! They don't contribute to society like we do. We had to buy a home for a nickel, and worked twelve jobs in a day. It took just as long to save a downpayment too!

It took your generation 25 years? You bought your starter home at 45?
Read 6 tweets
16 Mar
"The government is trying to microchip you with vaccines."

Bruh. Have you tried to use a government website? There's no way they can build that kind of tech.
Imagine if Canada tried to microchip people with vaccines.

*two weeks later*

Everyone receives an email saying their microchips have been locked, please call in to have it reenabled. Everyone's on hold for 8+ hours to reactivate.
Imagine if the 🇺🇸 tried.

“We wrote the system in COBOL, a language no longer used in computing, and can’t find anyone to finish it.”
Read 4 tweets
11 Mar
I hate real estate as an investment. Some people call me anti-developer.

One of my best friends is one of the biggest real estate developers in America.

Here's what we candidly discuss in terms of housing affordability and supply, that most will never understand.

<thread> 👇🧵
2/ First, let's talk about developer motivation.

When do developers build rentals? When it's most profitable.

When do developers build homes for sale? When it's most profitable.

It's never because they have a deep desire to build housing. Glad that's out of the way.
3/ How do you determine what will be more profitable?

Rentals are based on the gross yield they receive. Since rents are tied to income growth, it can only grow as fast as an economy.

Now selling a house? That grows as quickly as people can borrow money.
Read 10 tweets

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