Alba, NIP, WEP... the rise of the popup party is about more than just networks lowering the barrier to entry... it's what happens when people contemplate the permanent rule of English Tory xenophobes... 1/ newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
2/ British politics looks less like the A-Level Politics syllabus than at any time since the 1930s... "liberalism, conservatism and socialism" have all fragmented culturally... newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
3/ FPTP is holding fragmentation at bay, but if you look at Spain, Ireland, Germany or Italy - the same centrifugal forces in politics are there.... newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
4/ Labour itself has become two parties... with a definable left that wants something (socialism, zero carbon, democracy) and a right nostalgic for Blairism... in PR system it would make sense for them to be separate... newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
5/ ... and because people now see the possibility of a Progressive Alliance, a left-led coalition government and then PR, politicians are rightly starting to define themselves on principles/obsessions... newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
6/ Who would fancy being a left candidate on a list system controlled by Labour HQ? Not me! So instead of who you know, it is logical for politicians to start concentrating on "what you stand for" ... newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
7/ Labour - not just the leadership but what's left of its intelligentsia - always running to catch up with reality... if you can start a party from scratch, and existing parties are so obnoxious internally, why would the new generation engage? newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
8/ Political tribes will come together around one big objective. In Scotland it's independence; in England/Wales I suspect it will only be a radical economic, political and social offer from Labour... newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
9/ But the fact is always lost on technocrats (both SNP and Labour): just because you created a problem, doesn't mean you have the automatic capacity to solve it. The law of simplicity to complexity is strong in politics... my @NewStatesman piece today newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
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No defence experts I talk to claim to be certain what Putin plans in Ukraine. What we know is: 1/ Russia launched a big military buildup, giving itself the ability a) break out of Crimea to the north and b) stage a landing on the Azov coast (map not mine h/t @mhmck)...
2/ Ukraine’s president Zelensky looks out of his depth. He has called for UKR to be allowed to join NATO, which is a non-starter. I say this as someone highly critical of Russia’s geopolitics and internal repression....
3/ I am told the Ukrainian military preparations look currently shambolic, as they believe the USA will ride diplomatically to their rescue and, in any case, are numerically and technologically outclassed...
FCDO's @DominicRaab says he's "gravely concerned" by the Russian buildup on Ukraine's borders. Me too, and we should be doing everything we can to calm things down. So what's going on? 1/ Here's the Russian deployment video traced on a map citeam.org/ru-forces-near…
2/ What is Putin trying to achieve? No Western government seems to possess a clear answer. This @ICDS_Tallinn analysis says: flareup, insertion of Russian peacekeepers followed by annexation icds.ee/en/rumours-of-…
3/ Meanwhile in Belarus, the slow but steady takeover of the private sector by Russian interests, and redirection of export traffic from the EU to the Russia atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainea…
I could see today's anti-left briefings coming from within the PLP a mile off - here's what's driving it 1/ The social-democratic centre left is a theoretical deadzone ... it has no explanations for its own failure... newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
2/ ...So it's always a "failure to communicate" rather than the strategy itself.... The real problem - as I, @meadwaj and others point out - is that the Tory project has morphed radically... newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
3/ The Tories are now a machine for staying in power by throwing money at individual communities, demographics and problems... the central bank will subsidise that until the UK becomes a one-party state... newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
Contents of the Integrated Review are being drip-fed to the Times this weekend. Get ready for 2 weeks of hubris and bullshit about Britain as a "global power" operating in the Pacific and space, while the army is cut by 10,000. Thread 1/ ... thetimes.co.uk/article/defenc…
2/ The IR is both a review of foreign policy and defence: on the foreign policy, it's set to open up the first truly partisan situation in UK politics in a lifetime. Why? Labour will oppose the "tilt to the Indo-Pacific" - and so does Joe Biden... see below...
3/ The army is getting cut because its chiefs refused to play the game of the IR, which is talk about AI, space, cyber and then build hi-tech platforms with no resilient industry behind them in times of crisis...
Labour's @RachelReevesMP has written an important strategic article in the @NewStatesman which I assume reflects frontbench thinking ... it has implications for the left that need to be decoded... newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20… 1/ Here goes... (thread)....
2/ The Tories haven't just borrowed some Corbynist policies, they too have moved back from the individual to "community" as the basis for politics - so this is Base One of Labour's strategy: begs the question of how communities are defined and imagined...
3/ Very important attempt to differentiate from the Tories, English (and Scottish) nationalism, and ethnonationalist politics. But Labour needs to be a lot harder attacking the rising xenophobia that makes this argument necessary...
I'm a republican - but I can see a much more limited constitutional monarchy coming out of the Meghan/racism scandal. The Windsors/post-war Establishment chose this model; it's destroyed two talented, independent women who didn't fit; it needs to change 1/...
2/ For all the media intrusion, the British press never actually holds the Royal institution to account: sycophancy plus intrusion pass for accountability. That has to end. Parliament now has to redesign the monarchy...
3/ The tragedy is that only Harry and Meghan looked remotely close to the modern world. Now they're shut out, the institution - like the officers' messes, the Pall Mall clubs, the hedge funds and landed estates it's part of - reeks of prejudice and elitism...