Thread by @AnalystSomalia

A rejoinder to @1PolicyWonk previous THREAD:

This is how to read #Somalia’s election impasse. It’s about numbers: 329 MPs & senators who will vote for the next President.

Mr. Farmaajo wants to scheme/force/dictate a process that will secure him majority of these 329 voters
1/5

As per the attached media reports, Mr. Farmaajo has already rigged 3 state- level elections: 2018 in Southwest, January 2020 in Galmudug & November 2020 in Hirshabelle. Leaders he produced from those states are now his staunchest allies in the current election debate.
2

If the federal election process is fixed as Mr. Farmaajo schemes then there will be no election. It will be crowning a schemer and the beginning to dictatorship.

This is not acceptable.

Thus the opposition is telling him: The integrity of the federal election is a redline.

3

As of now and as a result of past state-level manipulations, Mr. Farmaajo has — in the upcoming federal election — a better chance in the 3 states than other candidates, because state leaders manage elections and have huge influence who becomes a senator or a parliamentarian.

4

In addition to dominating 3 states & Gedo region, Mr. Farmaajo is also allowed to appoint 1/2 of Somaliland & national election committees but for him ALL these advantages are not enough!

He must control EVERYTHING so he could assure himself a smooth, hustle-free re-election!
5

Sheer desire, obfuscation & tantrum aside, Candidate Farmaajo cannot, shouldn’t & won’t dictate the Somalia election process. We are NOT in the coronation business.

The President has no option but to negotiate a fair election process. The ongoing drama won’t work. It just won’t.