Investor Intelligence newsletter sentiment metric continues to recover with bulls 60.8% (+6.4%), bears 16.7% (-.8%) and the correction camp at 22.5% (-5.6%)
Retail investor #sentiment much more optimistic with those expecting the stock market to continue to rally at the highest levels since January 3rd 2018:
NAAIM Exposure Index has recovered with 90% avg and 80% median.
The net of extremes has also bounced back from the recent #contrarian pessimism I pointed out several weeks ago and is now back to more normal historical levels:
And for good measure, here's a bond #sentiment chart showing Consensus Bulls at historic extremes:
Spread between University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment & Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence at -24.8%, lower than 86% of monthly readings since 1970.
Attitudes of consumer's immediate personal circumstances vs general view of the overall economy.
Goldman Sachs Risk Appetite Indicator reached the heights last seen in early 2018 and has since retraced ever so slightly - remaining at historic thin-air elevations:
Not your typical sentiment gauge and yet... h/t @NoonSixCap
Sophos AUM $1.16B to $258M
Kynikos AUM $932M to $405M
Goldman Sachs' survey of 25 CIOs shows that #Bitcoin is their least favorite asset class
With growth and value leading the most favorite:
This stands in stark contrast to the larger survey conducted by Bank of America ML GFMS (May 2021) where long #Bitcoin was deemed the most crowded trade:
Whichever way you personally lean, the most consequential narrative that will determine the framework for major investment decisions is #inflation vs #deflation.
Checking in with the options market, the very LT trend remains clearly bullish (all major MAs in sustained synchronized downtrend):
While the market has accelerated higher, the short term standardized equity put/call ratio remains surprisingly neutral(ish):
The only recent bullish option signal I noticed was from ISEE's Call/Put ratio which opened up a significant gap between its 10d MA vs 50d MA (see below). This was similar to late October 2020:
"the forces of Supply and Demand suggest the market is consolidating its gains from the Dec 24 2018 and June 4 2019 lows through this sideways trading rather than forming a significant topping pattern."
"Thus, the probabilities are this period of consolidation will be resolved to the upside through a rally that carries to new all-time highs. (…) Historically, breadth tends to lead price in moving to new highs."
Lowry Research 3/7:
"Thus, if precedent holds, the new highs in the various Adv-Dec Lines reinforce the probabilities the market’s current sideways movement will be followed by a rally that carries the major price indexes to new highs in the months ahead.”