Babak 🇺🇦 🌻 Profile picture
@TN
Apr 8, 2021 11 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Quick look at a few #sentiment charts:

Investor Intelligence newsletter sentiment metric continues to recover with bulls 60.8% (+6.4%), bears 16.7% (-.8%) and the correction camp at 22.5% (-5.6%)

chart via @WillieDelwiche
Retail investor #sentiment much more optimistic with those expecting the stock market to continue to rally at the highest levels since January 3rd 2018:

chart via @WillieDelwiche
The 4 week MA of bearish AAII respondents is close to a record low as well:

chart via @hmeisler
NAAIM Exposure Index has recovered with 90% avg and 80% median.

The net of extremes has also bounced back from the recent #contrarian pessimism I pointed out several weeks ago and is now back to more normal historical levels:
And for good measure, here's a bond #sentiment chart showing Consensus Bulls at historic extremes:

chart via @topdowncharts
Spread between University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment & Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence at -24.8%, lower than 86% of monthly readings since 1970.

Attitudes of consumer's immediate personal circumstances vs general view of the overall economy.

marketwatch.com/story/why-cons…
NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll: 72.8%
NDR Daily Trading Sentiment Composite: +72.2%
Goldman Sachs Risk Appetite Indicator reached the heights last seen in early 2018 and has since retraced ever so slightly - remaining at historic thin-air elevations:
Not your typical sentiment gauge and yet... h/t @NoonSixCap

Sophos AUM $1.16B to $258M
Kynikos AUM $932M to $405M

institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1rb09…
Daily Sentiment Index for...

$SPX 88% (20d MA 76.3%)
$NDX 89% (20d MA 72.6%)
SX5E 85% (20d MA 83.8%)
NIKK 85% (20d MA 74.2%)
$VIX 13% (20d MA 13.9%)

(as of yesterday)

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More from @TN

Jun 7, 2021
Goldman Sachs' survey of 25 CIOs shows that #Bitcoin is their least favorite asset class
With growth and value leading the most favorite:
This stands in stark contrast to the larger survey conducted by Bank of America ML GFMS (May 2021) where long #Bitcoin was deemed the most crowded trade:
Read 4 tweets
Apr 20, 2021
Whichever way you personally lean, the most consequential narrative that will determine the framework for major investment decisions is #inflation vs #deflation.

ICYMI: @JeffSnider_AIP presented his case on MacroVoices

Whether our future challenge is deflation vs inflation will ultimately determine the value of not only traditional assets but also new ones.

#Bitcoin & #cryptocurrencies in general have had an evolving narrative to explain away the madness - most current one is "digital gold".
The overwhelming consensus is one of an inflation ravaged future economy.

It's just so obvious, isn't it?

And so effortless to make the argument that it would be asinine to suggest otherwise... and yet, recall Granville on the obvious in financial markets.

h/t @NuitSeraCalme Image
Read 30 tweets
Apr 7, 2021
Checking in with the options market, the very LT trend remains clearly bullish (all major MAs in sustained synchronized downtrend): Image
While the market has accelerated higher, the short term standardized equity put/call ratio remains surprisingly neutral(ish): Image
The only recent bullish option signal I noticed was from ISEE's Call/Put ratio which opened up a significant gap between its 10d MA vs 50d MA (see below). This was similar to late October 2020: Image
Read 4 tweets
Mar 22, 2021
While #sentiment for gold is most definitely depressed and close to historic extremes...

chart via @MacroCharts Image
The Bullish Percent index for the gold miners/equity sector is not as extreme: Image
Here's another breadth metric, the percent above 200EMA. It fell to almost 10% on Mar 8th and since then it has bounced strongly: Image
Read 5 tweets
Mar 7, 2021
The view from 30,000 ft... a very long term chart of stock market #valuation (via 3Edge): S&P 500 Market Valuation 19...
Similar, but slightly different #valuation gauge from Bridgewater: US Equity Price Gauge Perce...
S&P 500 Price to Forward Earnings Ratio remains below its pre-pandemic highs but still very stretched historically #valuation

via NDR h/t CMG S&P 500 Price to Forward Ea...
Read 5 tweets
Oct 24, 2019
Lowry Research 1/7:

"the forces of Supply and Demand suggest the market is consolidating its gains from the Dec 24 2018 and June 4 2019 lows through this sideways trading rather than forming a significant topping pattern."

edgeandodds.com/smart-investin…
Lowry Research 2/7:

"Thus, the probabilities are this period of consolidation will be resolved to the upside through a rally that carries to new all-time highs. (…) Historically, breadth tends to lead price in moving to new highs."
Lowry Research 3/7:

"Thus, if precedent holds, the new highs in the various Adv-Dec Lines reinforce the probabilities the market’s current sideways movement will be followed by a rally that carries the major price indexes to new highs in the months ahead.”
Read 8 tweets

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