Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #deflation

Most recents (19)

Hey all! Attention if you are up for an update on my perspective on markets. Deflation and massive moves ahead! Stay tuned #HZupdates
Let's start with #CRB, which created a nice shooting star on weekly chart, and leaving gap open below. Wave "e" often overshoots trend-line only to turn hard the opposite direction. The likely coming decline in #CRB is deflationary #HZupdates
This week we had an #Oil crisis according to some analysts. It played out on Monday😄Like #CRB, #Oil is consolidating in a sideway-consolidation (wave B) before a strong move lower. Target in Ending Diagonal remains <20USD. This will be secular bottom. First #deflation #HZupdates
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My 140 favorite quotes from The Ethics of Money Production (2008), by Jörg Guido Hülsmann
1. #Money is omnipresent in modern life, yet the production of money does not seem to warrant any moral assessment”. J.G.Hülsmann
2. “To be sure, central bank representatives are lecturing the public on the importance of business #ethics; but their concerns do not seem to apply to themselves”. J.G.Hülsmann
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Good morning! 😀End of August --> Time to look at some Monthly charts. What does the latest Monthly candles suggest for the road ahead for global economy? Stay tuned for #HZupdates
Yesterday, I posted this chart for #EURUSD. This is very central, as it provides indication for direction of USD. Major topping pattern - backtest in early 2018 - now targeting <0.9. Notice August candle! Zoom-in chart 2. It seems to be very Bearish #HZupdates
Turning towards Monthly chart for #DXY, we got corresponding candle to what we observed in #EURUSD. Bullish which set #DXY on the path towards min. 111, pot. as high as 120. Trend line suggest we could get there by Q1/Q2 2020. USD strength will create global challenges #HZupdates
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Good morning! 😁Deflationary phase is developing in economy. Stay tuned for my perspectives on coming developments in markets based on charts - technical and fundamental analysis #HZupdates thread coming up!
SP500 recovered some of the loses from early trading this week. Still, I think we have seen the top of the Expanding Diagonal, and we are currently in the Deflationary part of the crisis, where growth in economy is rolling over. Target ~2050 by Q1/Q2 2020 #HZupdates
#SP500 - will we see rally to 2950 for pot. top of wave 2 (black) before reversal and strong decline? That would close the gap in market from early Aug. #HZupdates
Read 16 tweets
Hope you enjoy the weekend! 😀Deflation unfolding in economy. Stay tuned for my view on market and coming macro developments #HZupdates
Short term we may see a bounce in #AUDUSD, as wave 2 develops - which sets us up for strong wave 3 down #HZupdates
#OIL develops in Ending Diagonal, which sets a target <20USD before LT-bottom. Again - we could pot. see that LT-bottom in around early Spring 2020. The period from now - until then is the #DEFLATIONARY phase of the crisis. This is where liquidity (USD) is scarce #HZupdates
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#SP500 hmmmmm......! Deflation - then Stagflation #HZupdates
#VIX hmmmmm......! #HZupdates
And so it begins....! #Copper We can only hope, that downturn will only take us to Target 1 - and not Target 2 (which I think it will drop to). Note - SP500 + VIX + Copper + Oil mutually support break lower! Global recession and Deflation coming #HZupdates
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Vacation time 🙂I'm currently in beautiful Oregon, US. Been flying, rafting, hiking, eating and playing with the kids - great time! Now - small break to update myself on the markets. Stay tuned for some #HZupdates
Where the #USD goes, rest of the market follows! Getting the direction of USD right is key. This is how I see #DXY short term. Further downside to develop - with target ~95.0. This is likely a major bottom - before DXY explodes higher #HZupdates
Following the ST weakness in #DXY, I think we will see much higher levels coming , as the shortage of USDs in the financial system becomes very clear. The target remains 107-109 - pot. higher to be reached some time around Mid-2020 #HZupdates
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Dear all 🙂Hope you enjoy the weekend! We are still in the Twilight Zone. Despite continued deteriorating economic fundamentals across the globe, US stock market continues to rally. But for how long...? Stay tuned for some #HZupdates
Indicators and signals across the globe continue to suggest economic slowdown - which slowly but surely spreads to all geographical regions and industries. It is my firm belief, that US will not decouple and US #equities will realize this at some point #HZupdates
#WTI sends clear signal from major Ending Diagonal. We may rally further in wave (B) - but soon we will see a reversal, which will send #Oil towards its LT-target of <20USD #HZupdates
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Supposedly QT is tapering off. You wouldn't know it looking at this simple chart.
Balance sheet V. SPX
DXY Weekly: Going to plan, looking for another higher high. 100 area is huge.
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Good morning all! 🙂 Morning in Copenhagen - listening to Ludovico while I'm updating analyses and family sleeps. Fantastic piece of music: #AllisGood
Time for some #HZupdates. Let's take a look at the market from the way I see it. Where is that deflation, I have been forecasting? Did CBs succeed to do their magic and eliminate that threat? What about the Kondratiev's winter - over/done? Stay tuned! 🙂
AUDUSD is inflation gauge. Rally=inflation up; Decline=inflation down. LT perspective looks like this. Decline in 2008 = wave A. Rally up to 2011 = wave B. We have since been in wave C. Wave 5 will take us to ~0.5. Note the horizontal line. When this goes -->free fall #HZupdates
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Good morning all! 😎 Trust you are well. #Oil declined hard last week. The deflationary environment is unfolding, as it has been laid out in #HZupdates. Please stay tuned for more!
Anybody who has been following my #deflationary scenario remembers my #Oil chart. The bounce, we saw from end 2018 until April 2019 was a wave "B" bounce in this wave 5 of the great Ending Diagonal. We will see Oil plummet to min. 22USD pot. all the wavy to ~10USD #HZupdates
This has not come as a surprise! #AUDUSD (Inflation gauge) had for a long time been flirting with LT-trendline from 2008. This was a sign of weakness in inflation - which could only play out, if Oil dropped (like the Ending diagonal suggested) #HZupdates
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Hi #fintwit 😎 We are approaching a watershed moment in markets. Final deflationary phase of Kondratiev's winter is about to play out. Huge implications for #EUR, #Gold, #SP500, #DXY etc. I have some new interesting followers - hence something extra in this week's #HZupdates
#Kondratiev's winter is a period where #Velocity of Money drops which creates a disinflationary economic environment, where growth is subdued due to #debt levels. Since ~2000 we have been in this winter - and are still to see a range of "major economic events" unfold #HZupdates
In fact, we have never left the #Financial #Crisis. We have only been bouncing in the great "Financial and Sovereign Debt Crisis" of this #Kondratiev's winter. This can be observed from the #Deflation Gauges #Copper, #XAU, AUD, EUR. We are about to see wave C develop #HZupdates
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As you all know #deflation has been my theme for some time. It is obvious looking at charts like #Copper and #Oil. Here is #Oil. Ending Diagonal which will send Oil <23 USD during 2019/2020. This has been my call since top in 2018. It is >70% drop --> deflationary #HZupdates
#Copper shows same picture. #Deflation is coming. We are in wave 5 of C in expanding diagonal. Current bounce is wave 2 - will rally slightly higher - before major drop. I imagine this is what Powell starts getting indications on #HZupdates
Notice 2008 Q1-Q3 - during last deflationary phase. Fed had been tightening up to Sept. 2007 - and started lowering rates. BUT damage had been done to economy. World rolled over and #deflation /disinflation. It was from Q1-Q3 2008. #Copper plunged. Same situation now! #HZupdates
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#Equities #SP500 was rallying and the bulls are cheering. The excuse seems to be, that Powell has blinked. Remember 2007-09? Fed started lowering rates by September 07. Yet that did not prevent Financial markets to decline hard until March 2009 #HZupdates
The thing is, that when liquidity #crunch snowball gets rolling, some announcement from #Fed will not do the job. Down the line, Fed will need to scramble (QE or the like) to fight USD shortage. My LT #SP500 model remains like this. Major Bear market ABC-structure. #HZupdates
I will not reveal my EW-count for #SP500 here. That is reserved for subscribers and buyers of Weekly Update. Only say, that we have not seen an impulse wave since Sept high. I expect a MAJOR decline to set in rather soon, taking us to my bottom of wave A from LT-chart. #HZupdates
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Good morning to all 😀Interesting weeks/months ahead of us as my deflationary scenario plays out. Will have massive consequences for currencies, gold, equities etc. I keep my subscribers updated closely on Daily/Weekly updates. But for now - stay tuned for some #HZupdates 👍
"#Deflation" or "#Disinflation" have been my call for a long time. We are not out of Kondratiev's winter yet. We haven't seen the all events which unfold during K's winter. Still to come Pension Funds Crisis, Currency Crisis, Run from Paper Money ...and War #HZupdates
And "#Deflation" outlook is clear in the charts imo. I look primarily to #AUDUSD and #Copper for guidance. Observe this chart of #Copper. Major ABC pattern. Length of C can be set by the irregular pattern indicating low in Copper below 2008-levels = deflation in 2019 #HZupdates
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Hi all 😀It has been a good year! 2019 will be difficult for world economy. A lot of fall outs ahead from disinflationary environment. Get ready for last #HZupdates from the old year 👍
As I laid out at the beginning of 2018, we have seen a rally in #DXY. The USD rally is not over yet. I expect the rally to continuing into 2019 - reaching min. 107 before the rally is over, This will have deflationary consequences across various markets #HZupdates
#EURUSD topped early 2018 and has dropped to a low of 1.121 by Nov. But - this is not the end of this major Bear market for Euro. LT-target remains 0.91 likely to be reached by Q2/Q3 2019 #HZupdates
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Last week in markets was truly exciting! Some important signals were provided - which sets us up for some truly great trades 😀Before all leaves FinTwit to relax and enjoy during Christmas - I will provide you with some #HZupdates. Stay tuned! 👍
#EURUSD has been showing a lot of weakness. The LT-perspective is same as it has been for a very long time. Target of ~0.91 to be reached some time during 2019. Coming decline will bring about massive capitulation #HZupdates
#EURUSD - I have had 2 scenarios for how price will develop coming days/weeks. This scenario seems to hold most credibility. We could see small bounce next week - but soon EURUSD will crash in a strong wave lower. Great opportunity to go short is closing in #HZupdates
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Hi all 😀Ready for some #HZupdates? I have had some busy weeks - however, I expect to post more regularly soon again. I'm also spending more time on my Whatsapp list for subscribers. Some great trades ahead. Stay tuned! 👍
#EURUSD No changes to LT-view. We are on the path towards 0.91. I do expect a bounce in EURUSD, before a crash will set in #HZupdates
#EURUSD Following the bounce, the decline will be forceful - comparable to the decline in 2014-15 in steepness. One small bounce on the way towards 0.91 will be wave 4 #HZupdates
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Good morning 😀 Another interesting week in the market. Last week, I expected SP500 to set up a relief rally. It did - but what is the outlook ahead? And the Euro....everybody was so bearish the Euro this week. What happens next? Ready for some #HZupdates?
#SP500 the big picture, I think we have the beginning of a major Bear market. We have 5 waves up since 2009 - and this is a major 5(red) top. Hence, the correction is on the entire structure. Will unfold in 3 waves (ABC). Three possible target areas. #HZupdates
#SP500 Wave A of major Bear will unfold in 5 waves. We may have seen wave 1(red) of that decline, and are currently in making of wave 2(red). This may take some weeks to unfold. If this is right, then one of the crashes, we will experience during this bear, waits ahead #HZupdates
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