Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #deflation

Most recents (24)

Largely because (a) the injections functioned differently last time as it was primarily a financial seizure, not a real one; (c) the real assets which did deflate -RE- are the very ones which have since most risen in price (“inflated”); (d) intl division of labour then undamaged
Somewhat risible to say no fiscal response last time, even if this one is shaping up to dwarf it. That’s just #Keynesian dinosaurs trying to say only their Master’s nostrums can work.
Worry is, we redo the 30s: lacklustre growth as too big a Boondoggle state exploiting its edge.
The state runs only the softest of soft budgets, is the most wasteful, least productive, most monolithic, least innovative of spenders. Backed up by a compliant #centralbank -monetary ‘authority’ is now a joke!- that implies lots of (misdirected) demand for not much extra supply
Read 7 tweets
Trust you are safe! For a long time, I have been forecasting #DEFLATION. We got that! Today, I want to address, why I think we are about to see a NEW ECONOMIC REGIME arise soon - and why #STAGFLATION will be the transformation into the coming Kondratiev Spring #HZupdates
We know, that Fed and CBs around the world have been printing money - and lots of it! However, we have failed to see inflation - to the regret of Draghi, Yellen, etc. Despite their efforts, inflation has been in decline. Why? Because Velocity of Money has been in strong decline.
Two factors to create inflation: 1) Amount of money 2) Speed of circulation. The latter has been in decline for years as during Kondratiev's Winter, debt has become a burden to society - which hinders growth. The more debt - the less growth - and hence slower money circulation
Read 23 tweets
#Deflation unfolding - but as in all moves - we will always see counter-moves or corrections. Last week was such a correction. We must not drop our guard! The economic situation is dire and we are not through the illiquid phase. Major developments ahead! Stay tuned for #HZupdates
It is all about #USD. Last week was a retracement in the new strong spike for #DXY = wave ii (blue). Within days, DXY will likely start strong rally higher - reaching min. 109 within weeks. End target will be reached later this year ~122 #HZupdates
The rally in #DXY is caused by extreme USD shortage. #EURUSD will feel the strength. In fact, it seems to me, that we are about to see a very strong decline in EURUSD within days/weeks to ~0.97-0.98 before a sideways bounce. LT-target remains the same: ~0.85 to be reached this yr
Read 20 tweets
1. During the Holocaust, Jews were told if they just followed the rules, then they would be OK.

They were sent off to concentration camps & were victims of genocide.

Do you not see the ruse that is happening now? Be smart & hedge w/ cryptocurrency.

$BTC
linkedin.com/pulse/anatomy-…
2. The FED has announced unlimited quantitative easing & now the reserve requirement from banks has been lowered to 0 from 10%.

This means that literally there are no assets backing you deposits.

We may 1st see #deflation but #hyperinflation eventually.

3. #Cryptocurrency by contrast, you have
physical custody of the digital assets (100% backed vs 0).

This is a hedge against rehypothication risk & as we found out with Dole Foods as well as from the last global financial crisis, this is a very real risk.

linkedin.com/pulse/cryptocu…
Read 4 tweets
"Something is Breaking!" and we are going to see decades worth of developments in the span of few weeks or months. #Coronavirus has been the trigger of the #Deflation, I have been expecting for so long. It is now here! Stay tuned for #HZupdates to get my view on markets
"Something is Breaking" has been taken from zerohedge.com/markets/someth…. We are observing an extreme USD Shortage developing fast and it is going to cause a wild #DXY rally the coming weeks & months. Chart of FRA/OIS provides overview of the severity of the developing USD shortage
My #DXY model supports this macro outlook exactly. Correction from late 2019 has concluded and DXY will now explode higher in 5 impulsive waves higher to target ~111. I expect this move to reach target ~Mid-2020. The consequences of a strong DXY will be wide-spread. #Deflation
Read 15 tweets
Good morning! Let's have an update on markets as it has now become very clear, that we are to see the #Deflation unfolding, which I have mentioned here for a long time. Why hasn't it really hurt yet - and what to expect? Stay tuned for some #HZupdates
I have shown my #Oil chart for a long time with Ending Diagonal. Since talks of oil >100USD - and during spikes in oil due to attacks in ME. All noise!! Structures drive price - and we are en route towards <20USD - perhaps as low as ~10USD for Oil. #Deflation unfolding!
I have shown #Deflation in #CRB chart. Broken lower trendline and now heading towards much lower levels to be reached this year! It will be a SECULAR BOTTOM - hence this is from where #STAGLFLATION will develop, as economy continues to plummet and prices begin to rise #HZupdates
Read 23 tweets
#Deflation phase has started. Stocks will plummet in 5 waves down to ~1800 in #SP500. Wave 2 and 4 will be corrections. We have break of 200SMA and trendline from early 2019. I think we see a backtest of these (yellow area?). But - in general trend is down - and fast!
#USD #DXY is about to set off on a major move higher. The current correction is a wave 2 (blue) and hence next wave will take us to min. 103 - but more likely 106-107 in an impulsive move. Do not stand in front of the USD train coming months!
#EURUSD kissing 50SMA and pot. also 200SMA "Goodbye" - before turning down hard. Next wave will take down to - and likely below bottom from early 2017 - only for a short consolidation before EUR crash continues. LT-target remains ~0.85
Read 14 tweets
Will #deflation be the end for business? Hardly. Deflation is only a problem for businesses in an inflationary economy. Sounds contradictory, but the point is that business is properly operated aimed toward (meeting or creating) the future--not to repeat but to *leverage* the
past. Entrepreneurs and managers continuously forecast and try to position their businesses with respect to the future market situation. In today's heavily distorted, #inflation-suffering markets, businesses have learned to anticipate that prices will continue to rise: buying
(factor, input) prices as well as selling (output) prices. This is more than simply relying on experience, which is a shaky foundation for predicting the future. In present markets, government through central planning of national currencies *promise* to *enforce* inflation. The
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My 116 favorite quotes from Money: Sound and Unsound, by Joseph.T. Salerno (2015)
@jtsale @mises #AustrianEconomics #SoundMoney
1. “The idea of sound #money was present from the very beginning of modern monetary theory in the works of the 16th-century Spanish #Scholastics who argued against debasement of the coinage by the king on ethical and economic grounds”
J.T.Salerno
2. “It was #Fisher and not #Keynes who was the true founder of modern macroeconomics with its aggregative reasoning and its central notion of politically managed fiat money”
J.T.Salerno
Read 118 tweets
Hey all! Attention if you are up for an update on my perspective on markets. Deflation and massive moves ahead! Stay tuned #HZupdates
Let's start with #CRB, which created a nice shooting star on weekly chart, and leaving gap open below. Wave "e" often overshoots trend-line only to turn hard the opposite direction. The likely coming decline in #CRB is deflationary #HZupdates
This week we had an #Oil crisis according to some analysts. It played out on Monday😄Like #CRB, #Oil is consolidating in a sideway-consolidation (wave B) before a strong move lower. Target in Ending Diagonal remains <20USD. This will be secular bottom. First #deflation #HZupdates
Read 14 tweets
My 140 favorite quotes from The Ethics of Money Production (2008), by Jörg Guido Hülsmann
1. #Money is omnipresent in modern life, yet the production of money does not seem to warrant any moral assessment”. J.G.Hülsmann
2. “To be sure, central bank representatives are lecturing the public on the importance of business #ethics; but their concerns do not seem to apply to themselves”. J.G.Hülsmann
Read 142 tweets
Good morning! 😀End of August --> Time to look at some Monthly charts. What does the latest Monthly candles suggest for the road ahead for global economy? Stay tuned for #HZupdates
Yesterday, I posted this chart for #EURUSD. This is very central, as it provides indication for direction of USD. Major topping pattern - backtest in early 2018 - now targeting <0.9. Notice August candle! Zoom-in chart 2. It seems to be very Bearish #HZupdates
Turning towards Monthly chart for #DXY, we got corresponding candle to what we observed in #EURUSD. Bullish which set #DXY on the path towards min. 111, pot. as high as 120. Trend line suggest we could get there by Q1/Q2 2020. USD strength will create global challenges #HZupdates
Read 10 tweets
Good morning! 😁Deflationary phase is developing in economy. Stay tuned for my perspectives on coming developments in markets based on charts - technical and fundamental analysis #HZupdates thread coming up!
SP500 recovered some of the loses from early trading this week. Still, I think we have seen the top of the Expanding Diagonal, and we are currently in the Deflationary part of the crisis, where growth in economy is rolling over. Target ~2050 by Q1/Q2 2020 #HZupdates
#SP500 - will we see rally to 2950 for pot. top of wave 2 (black) before reversal and strong decline? That would close the gap in market from early Aug. #HZupdates
Read 16 tweets
Hope you enjoy the weekend! 😀Deflation unfolding in economy. Stay tuned for my view on market and coming macro developments #HZupdates
Short term we may see a bounce in #AUDUSD, as wave 2 develops - which sets us up for strong wave 3 down #HZupdates
#OIL develops in Ending Diagonal, which sets a target <20USD before LT-bottom. Again - we could pot. see that LT-bottom in around early Spring 2020. The period from now - until then is the #DEFLATIONARY phase of the crisis. This is where liquidity (USD) is scarce #HZupdates
Read 18 tweets
#SP500 hmmmmm......! Deflation - then Stagflation #HZupdates
#VIX hmmmmm......! #HZupdates
And so it begins....! #Copper We can only hope, that downturn will only take us to Target 1 - and not Target 2 (which I think it will drop to). Note - SP500 + VIX + Copper + Oil mutually support break lower! Global recession and Deflation coming #HZupdates
Read 5 tweets
Vacation time 🙂I'm currently in beautiful Oregon, US. Been flying, rafting, hiking, eating and playing with the kids - great time! Now - small break to update myself on the markets. Stay tuned for some #HZupdates
Where the #USD goes, rest of the market follows! Getting the direction of USD right is key. This is how I see #DXY short term. Further downside to develop - with target ~95.0. This is likely a major bottom - before DXY explodes higher #HZupdates
Following the ST weakness in #DXY, I think we will see much higher levels coming , as the shortage of USDs in the financial system becomes very clear. The target remains 107-109 - pot. higher to be reached some time around Mid-2020 #HZupdates
Read 19 tweets
Dear all 🙂Hope you enjoy the weekend! We are still in the Twilight Zone. Despite continued deteriorating economic fundamentals across the globe, US stock market continues to rally. But for how long...? Stay tuned for some #HZupdates
Indicators and signals across the globe continue to suggest economic slowdown - which slowly but surely spreads to all geographical regions and industries. It is my firm belief, that US will not decouple and US #equities will realize this at some point #HZupdates
#WTI sends clear signal from major Ending Diagonal. We may rally further in wave (B) - but soon we will see a reversal, which will send #Oil towards its LT-target of <20USD #HZupdates
Read 19 tweets
Supposedly QT is tapering off. You wouldn't know it looking at this simple chart.
Balance sheet V. SPX
DXY Weekly: Going to plan, looking for another higher high. 100 area is huge.
Read 28 tweets
Good morning all! 🙂 Morning in Copenhagen - listening to Ludovico while I'm updating analyses and family sleeps. Fantastic piece of music: #AllisGood
Time for some #HZupdates. Let's take a look at the market from the way I see it. Where is that deflation, I have been forecasting? Did CBs succeed to do their magic and eliminate that threat? What about the Kondratiev's winter - over/done? Stay tuned! 🙂
AUDUSD is inflation gauge. Rally=inflation up; Decline=inflation down. LT perspective looks like this. Decline in 2008 = wave A. Rally up to 2011 = wave B. We have since been in wave C. Wave 5 will take us to ~0.5. Note the horizontal line. When this goes -->free fall #HZupdates
Read 28 tweets
Good morning all! 😎 Trust you are well. #Oil declined hard last week. The deflationary environment is unfolding, as it has been laid out in #HZupdates. Please stay tuned for more!
Anybody who has been following my #deflationary scenario remembers my #Oil chart. The bounce, we saw from end 2018 until April 2019 was a wave "B" bounce in this wave 5 of the great Ending Diagonal. We will see Oil plummet to min. 22USD pot. all the wavy to ~10USD #HZupdates
This has not come as a surprise! #AUDUSD (Inflation gauge) had for a long time been flirting with LT-trendline from 2008. This was a sign of weakness in inflation - which could only play out, if Oil dropped (like the Ending diagonal suggested) #HZupdates
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Hi #fintwit 😎 We are approaching a watershed moment in markets. Final deflationary phase of Kondratiev's winter is about to play out. Huge implications for #EUR, #Gold, #SP500, #DXY etc. I have some new interesting followers - hence something extra in this week's #HZupdates
#Kondratiev's winter is a period where #Velocity of Money drops which creates a disinflationary economic environment, where growth is subdued due to #debt levels. Since ~2000 we have been in this winter - and are still to see a range of "major economic events" unfold #HZupdates
In fact, we have never left the #Financial #Crisis. We have only been bouncing in the great "Financial and Sovereign Debt Crisis" of this #Kondratiev's winter. This can be observed from the #Deflation Gauges #Copper, #XAU, AUD, EUR. We are about to see wave C develop #HZupdates
Read 21 tweets
As you all know #deflation has been my theme for some time. It is obvious looking at charts like #Copper and #Oil. Here is #Oil. Ending Diagonal which will send Oil <23 USD during 2019/2020. This has been my call since top in 2018. It is >70% drop --> deflationary #HZupdates
#Copper shows same picture. #Deflation is coming. We are in wave 5 of C in expanding diagonal. Current bounce is wave 2 - will rally slightly higher - before major drop. I imagine this is what Powell starts getting indications on #HZupdates
Notice 2008 Q1-Q3 - during last deflationary phase. Fed had been tightening up to Sept. 2007 - and started lowering rates. BUT damage had been done to economy. World rolled over and #deflation /disinflation. It was from Q1-Q3 2008. #Copper plunged. Same situation now! #HZupdates
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#Equities #SP500 was rallying and the bulls are cheering. The excuse seems to be, that Powell has blinked. Remember 2007-09? Fed started lowering rates by September 07. Yet that did not prevent Financial markets to decline hard until March 2009 #HZupdates
The thing is, that when liquidity #crunch snowball gets rolling, some announcement from #Fed will not do the job. Down the line, Fed will need to scramble (QE or the like) to fight USD shortage. My LT #SP500 model remains like this. Major Bear market ABC-structure. #HZupdates
I will not reveal my EW-count for #SP500 here. That is reserved for subscribers and buyers of Weekly Update. Only say, that we have not seen an impulse wave since Sept high. I expect a MAJOR decline to set in rather soon, taking us to my bottom of wave A from LT-chart. #HZupdates
Read 17 tweets
Good morning to all 😀Interesting weeks/months ahead of us as my deflationary scenario plays out. Will have massive consequences for currencies, gold, equities etc. I keep my subscribers updated closely on Daily/Weekly updates. But for now - stay tuned for some #HZupdates 👍
"#Deflation" or "#Disinflation" have been my call for a long time. We are not out of Kondratiev's winter yet. We haven't seen the all events which unfold during K's winter. Still to come Pension Funds Crisis, Currency Crisis, Run from Paper Money ...and War #HZupdates
And "#Deflation" outlook is clear in the charts imo. I look primarily to #AUDUSD and #Copper for guidance. Observe this chart of #Copper. Major ABC pattern. Length of C can be set by the irregular pattern indicating low in Copper below 2008-levels = deflation in 2019 #HZupdates
Read 19 tweets

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