Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #deflation

Most recents (24)

He has BLOCKED me but @profholden once asked for a “formal theory” of MMT. Well here it is.
The model examines two claims of Modern Monetary Theory: 1) The government determines the price level through the prices it pays when it spends. 2) Deficient demand results when the government does not supply enough currency to meet private demand. #MMT 🏛️💸
The model builds a "monopoly money" framework where the government sets the "price of money" through its spending. While private actors recirculate government currency, they depend on the government as the monopoly supplier. #MonopolyMoney 💰📈
Read 11 tweets
Time to update this chart.

With everything going lately this may be the single most important chart to look at.

What do the latest numbers tell us?

A thread.


I made the quoted tweet on Feb 2 which was before Jan employment report, #CPI , #PPI and #PCE when most were still talking about great Dec numbers.

In the meantime most indicators showed higher #inflation numbers but, as I noted beforehand, that is only seasonality.

2/16 ImageImage
As I suspected, some took advantage of these seasonality numbers and revisions of SA data (#CPI) to wrongly point to #inflation picking up.

And even worse, the #Fed embraced this false narrative and hiked 25 last week despite the ongoing banking crisis.

Read 16 tweets
There's something about price #deflation (that the purchasing power of money rises) that messes with people's ability to think properly. Instead, they assert/conclude that the economy will go down the tubes if people get more for their earnings and savings.
The only way you end up with such a nonsense conclusion is if you have no conception of value creation in the economy. That is, if you assert that the economy is about simple statistical metrics, not the constant striving to satisfy people's wants (on their own terms, not yours).
By disregarding value creation, you get to the common (but crazy) view that if people expect their money's purchasing power to rise, they will postpone consumption (all of it, indefinitely). That is of course an impossibility. We must and want to consume.
Read 6 tweets
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

Macro Review 🧵


Don’t you find it amazing how quickly the phrases “Transitory Goldilocks” and “Immaculate Disinflation” have entered the #macro vocabulary?

Where did they come from? Why?

Let’s start with “Immaculate Disinflation”

Core #PCE rose .72% in Q4 2022 or +2.88% annualized.

The Fed has to be pleased with this, but given the pace of rate hikes, this is not all that surprising

Chart: Core #PCE

Wages have also started to decelerated quickly - now +4.6% y/y

Chart: US average hourly earnings y/y
Read 20 tweets
At first glance, Nov #CPI was somewhat better-than-expected report (headline MoM slightly lower than expectations -0.1% vs 0%) and mostly in line (YoY headline, as well as MoM&YoY core).

But in the details #inflation is much weaker than gets recognized.

A thread.

Unadjusted headline #CPI is down for the 2nd M in a row with -0.31% which is the lowest print since Apr 2020 (-0.67%).

In the last 8 yrs there were only 2M with materially lower prints (Apr 2020 and Jan 2015 -0.47%)!

2/17 Image
Unadjusted headline in Dec 2022 (-0.31%) is the 6th lowest in 8 yrs but 3 of these prints were almost identical (Dec 2018 -0.32%, Nov 2018 -0.33% and Dec 2015 -0.34%).

In Apr 2020 the economy was on forced lockdown, and in 2015/late 2018 #deflation was a problem.

Read 17 tweets
23 Global Developments to Watch Over The Next Five Years.

(See Thread).… Image
#1 - DEI gives way to DEI 2.0 which focuses on Diversity (of perspective), Equality (of opportunity), and Incentives (to do well). Image
#2 - As education and incomes rise, birth rates plunge. Demographers increasingly worry about an underpopulated planet instead of an overpopulated one.
@JohnIbbitson @darrellbricker Image
Read 24 tweets
🇺🇸 #Fed | From #Inflation (Now) To #Deflation Fears (In Late 2023)

*A bit provocative I know but leading indicators suggest that CPI YoY will normalize quickly in the coming months and, in absence of external shock, could return to 2% in late 2023.
*A thread ⬇
1- Market #rents will keep retracing in the coming months. Household formation and rental demand are slowing in response to macro conditions while #housing supply will gain traction in the coming months, with a peak expected around 4Q23 (HT @jayparsons).
The collision of these factors will probably result in a contraction of market #rents on a YoY basis at some point next year. In the past, the CPI’s measure of rents for homeowners has typically lagged other measures of market rents by between 6 and 12 months.
Read 7 tweets
Nov #CPI was the 2nd better-than-expected report in a row.

The last time that happened was, prepare yourself, in Oct 2018!

It didn't even happen during the lockdowns in 2020 making this report all the more significant.

Let's delve deeper.

A thread.

On an unadjusted basis headline #CPI was down -0.1% MoM, the lowest MoM reading since April 2020!

Back then the economy was on forced lockdown and this is only second to that lowest 2 readings (Mar-Apr 2020) in the recent history.

3M moving average of headline #CPI (MoM unadjusted) is 0.17% which is 2.1% annualized, well BELOW the #Fed's #inflation target.

I already explained this but for the ones that are reading this for the first time, yes, you read that right - 2.1% #CPI is way below the target

Read 16 tweets
I've been saying this the whole yr.

Earlier many disagreed saying the #Fed needs to go to 4, 5, 9%... to "kill" the #inflation but, just as I was saying, it turned out the #Fed can't do a thing to this #inflation as it's running its course no matter what the #Fed does.


In hindsight what could have the #Fed done differently?

Their first policy mistake was not starting hiking #FFR in Mar 2021.

Still, I don't think they could have done much to this #inflation.

Maybe the peak #CPI YoY would be 8%-ish instead of 9.1% but not much less.

This is bc of the nature of this #inflation which was mostly caused by factors out of the #Fed's control.

Here is more on that (bear in mind this estimate was done in the early stages of hikes - I think May- by now MP has long eclipsed the demand %)

Read 22 tweets
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

Global Macro Review

🧵 1/7

#Recession cometh
Are you positioned accordingly?

Chart: Conference Board Leading Economic Index -3.2% over the past 6 months…

The 10Y3M treasury spread, as a standalone indicator, has predicted recession with 98% accuracy.

Chart: 10Y3M Treasury Spread to -52 bps

According to this Richmond Fed article, when both the LEI and 10Y3M are flashing #recession, there is a 99% chance of recession ahead.…

Chart: Recession Indicators
Read 12 tweets
Amid the election today it is easy to forget we get the Oct #CPI Thursday.

#CPI is the most important economic report this week.

So where will the Oct figure print?

A thread.

In prior months my estimates were ahead of both consensus and the Cleveland #Fed.

They also turned out to be more optimistic than the actual numbers.

Non #CPI/#PCE indicators are showing a clear #disinflation, even MoM rent #deflation:

Rents make 32% of the #CPI (about 40% of the core #CPI) and are therefore the crucial component.

Even if we seasonally adjust them, rents are showing clear declines, the largest in at least 5 yrs:

Read 8 tweets
[1/14] Der #eEUR oder digitale #Euro, in Fachliteratur eher als "#Retail #CBDC" bekannt, unterscheidet sich stark vom "#Wholesale #CBDC" u. bringt unterschiedlichste Eigenheiten mit sich

In diesem 🧵 gehe ich dem Thema #Bargeld und unserer #Privatsphäre näher auf die Schliche 🧐
[2/14] "Digitale #Zentralbankwährungen" (#CBDCs) werden als zukünftiges gesetzliches Zahlungsmittel für jede Art von Transaktionen im Mittelpunkt stehen

Der subjektive "Vorteil", der dabei häufig hervorgehoben wird, ist die Bindung an eine digitale #ID u. die Programmierbarkeit Wholsale CBDC: Interbanking-sector Retail CBDC: General publ
[3/14] Die Programmierbarkeit, bereits von #ETH und anderen Smart-Contract Plattformen bekannt, ermöglicht intelligente und automatisierbare Ausführungen

#Inflation, #Deflation oder zum Beispiel das #Rentensystem, könnte digital sehr viel effizienter verwaltet (gerettet?) werden Smart Contract: money and data exchanged Source: https://pir
Read 15 tweets
The #Fed #pivot talk has intensified lately.

Sth possibly breaking in the #UK, European financial system ( $CS, $DB...), #RBA pivoting by hiking less than expected, higher financial risk in the #US...

Should the #Fed #pivot and why?

Let's demystify all this.

A thread.

Those that follow me know I've been calling the #Fed to #pivot for quite a while.

Ever since mid-May it's been clear to me the #US #economy is in a #recession which should prompt the #Fed to #pivot in Sep.

And every important economic indicator warranted the #Fed #pivot.

But the #Fed decided to turn the blind eye to the #economy in an effort to try to regain some of the credibility they lost last yr by "transitory" talk.

So instead of amending things, they have made another policy error.

Here is more about this:

Read 25 tweets
What really causes inflation? 🧵

[a thread for normies - like me]
2/ The problem with #inflation is that it's a very personal experience.

As I always say, the wallet is the most sensitive organ in the body, so my inflation might not be your inflation.

In fact, my inflation could be seen as #disinflation by you... (more on that later)
3/ Price inflation and monetary inflation have different definitions:

* For many.- #inflation is the increased prices paid for goods & services.

** To others.- it's a decline in the purchasing power of your #money.

*** In layman's terms.- Too much money chasing too few goods.
Read 25 tweets
A barely known fact when it comes to the @ECB's recent interest rate hikes: Banks are now being subsidized for doing nothing.

Yes, read that again: Commercial banks connected to the #Eurosystem GAIN interest by NOT lending their money!

A 🧵 on why that is and why it's dumb.
The ECB's monetary policy toolbox comprises, among other things, three dedicated interest rates:
1. The Main Refinancing Operations (MRO) rate, currently at 1.25%
2. The rate of the Marginal Lending Facility, currently at 1.5%
3. The Deposit Facility rate (DFR), now at 0.75%
The former two rates apply when banks acquire loans from the ECB and have to pay interest on those loans. These have never been below 0%.

The latter rate, as the name suggests, applies on the money (excess reserves) a bank deposits at the ECB, i.e. money not used otherwise.
Read 14 tweets
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

Global Macro Review
September 5, 2022

Hello Labor Day 🇺🇸!
Other than the $USD, very little that was in the green long side last week. This morning, commodities are bouncing but equities ↘️

Let’s review the week and the real-time 🧮!

Asia 🪓🩸 last week with $HSI -3.55%, $NIKK -3.45%, and $KOSPI -2.9%.

Today ↔️
$NIKK 27620 -0.1%
$SSEC 3200 +0.4%
$TWII 14661 -0.1%
$HSI 2404 -0.25%
$IDX 7232 +0.75%

$ASX 6852 +0.35%

$BSE 59209 +0.7%

Chart: $NIKK flipped to neutral Trend (T) -0.4% over the past 3 months
Unambiguously 🪓🩸 ↘️ this morning, Europe was ↔️ last week with $DAX + 0.44% and $CAC -1.7%

$DAX 12640 -3.15%
$FTSE 7200 -1.1%
$CAC 6031 -2.2%
$AEX 666 -1.9%
$IDEX 7778 -1.95%
$MIB 21327 -2.7%
$SMI 10704 -1.7%
$MOEX 2457 -0.6%

$VSTOXX 28.96 🔺

Chart: $DAX bye higher low 💣
Read 11 tweets
NEW PAPER out today "Investing in #deflation, #inflation, and #stagflation regimes" Link to study:
The study was discussed in the @washingtonpost today as well as @business
🚀 500+ downloads in 1 day!…
Read 3 tweets

Annual inflation rate in the US unexpectedly accelerated to 8.6% in May 2022, the highest since December 1981 and compared to market forecasts of 8.3%.

We have been writing #Threads 🧵on #INFLATION.

Compiling all the threads for our friends.
#Inflation, #Deflation, #Stagflation.
We have heard all these terms on #Twitter in the last few months.

Initially, we were also confused, like most of our friends.

This #Thread🧵will give a brief description of these.

Where is #Inflation?

Let's understand this from the #Indian #Customer Perspective.

Read 6 tweets

Global Macro Review 01/23/2022


US equity distribution ↘️ continued with a vengeance into Friday’s #OPEX

VIX ↗️ to ~30 ahead of Wednesday’s #FOMC event risk, leading to vol backwardation - a SHORT-TERM ♉️ signal

Let’s dig into the week's 🧮!

High correlation between the UST2Y crossing the 1.0% Rubicon on Tuesday night’s open and acceleration ↘️ in US equity markets

How pathetic is it that the equity market cannot tolerate a 1% 2Y?


Nonetheless, $TNX turned on a dime Wednesday leading to a further flattering of the yield curve with 10/s to 75.5 BPS -36% over the past 3 months (T = Trend) and 30/5s to 51.3 BPS -41% over T duration.

Chart: TNX daily
Read 14 tweets
Hello 🐫 day!

Oil ↗️

Yields ↗️

Equities ⬆️⬇️

#VIXperation on tap

Let's dig into the 🧮!
Asian equities ↘️🐫

$NIKK 27467 -2.8%
$SSEC 3558 -0.35%
$TWII 18227 -0.8%
$HSI 24128 +0.05%
$KOSPI 2842 -0.75%
$IDX 6592 -0.35%

Australia ↘️🐫
$ASX 73332 -1.05%

India ↘️🐫
$BSE 60139 -1.0%
European bourses open ↔️

$DAX 15751 -0.15%
$FTSE 7562 unch
$CAC 7160 +0.35%
$AEX 769 -0.05%
$IBEX 8801 +0.2%
$MIB 27274 -0.8%
$SMI 12520 -0.05%
$MOEX 3442 +3.4% ⬅️🪆

$VSTOXX 21.96 🔺
Read 11 tweets
Time for a 🧵 on two charts (at the end) that seem to tell an interesting #Bitcoin story.

For several yrs @CaitlinLong_ has openly discussed the potential negative impact of #rehypothecation of #bitcoin by banks, wall street, hedge funds & the broader #tradfi community.
@saylor has discussed and shown the need for sound money and the value that having a savings mechanism brings to the system.

@JeffBooth has shed light on the fact that #deflation isn’t such a bad thing when #technology is actually making our lives better and costs cheaper.
@saifedean taught the 🌏 the importance of time, effort, and energy & the value that living by the #Bitcoin Standard can bring to individuals and countries across the globe.

@FossGregfoss has done a phenomenal job helping to #educate on the benefits of owning #volatile #assets.
Read 24 tweets
Die #Inflation von 4,1 % im September löst viel Empörung aus. Der Schuldige ist für manche in 🇩🇪 klar: es ist die #EZB, die die Inflation in die Höhe treibt und die #Sparer „enteignet“.

Der Alarmismus ist falsch, manipulativ und schädlich.

Ein Thread mit Zahlen und Fakten: Image
„Mega-Inflation von 4,1 Prozent frisst unser Geld auf“ (#Bild Zeitung)

Ist eine #Inflation von 4,1 % im September 2021 ein Problem?

Oder ist es nicht viel mir eine gezielte Panikmache um von Fehlern der Politik abzulenken?
Fakt #1: Preise sind im September 2021 NICHT auf ein Rekordhoch gestiegen, sondern sie sind im Vergleich zu August und Juli 2021 GLEICH geblieben (monatliche Inflation von 0,0%).
Read 22 tweets
Global Macro Review 07/25/2021

Hedge funds rattled by $RUT @Mike_Taylor1972 and active participants confused by the phase transition price action @PatrickCeresna

Let’s review what has been working/failing on trade and Trend durations for clues

t = 1-month, T = 3-months

Domestic equities bounced off Monday’s ↘️ day with $COMPQ +2.84%, $IWM +2.14%, and $SPX +1.96% for the week. But 👀 (t) + (T)

SPX +3.06% (t), +5.54% (T) ♉️
COMPQ +3.32% (t) +5.85% (T) ♉️
IWM -5.48% (t), -2.75% (T) 🐻 $COMPQ +2.84% and an ATH +5...

International equities a little less sanguine with $CAC +1.68% and $HSI -2.44% for the week

CAC -0.82% (t) +4.97% (T)
DAX +0.39% (t) + 2.55% (T) ♉️
SSEC -1.33% (t) +2.45% (T)
KOSPI -1.47% (t, +2.14% (T)
NIKK -5.22% (t) -5.07% (T) 🐻
HSI -6.73% (t) -6.04% (T) 🐻 $CAC +1.68% for the week an...
Read 16 tweets

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