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Frederik 'Neckar' Profile picture
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9 Apr, 12 tweets, 4 min read
For the history nerds: the American Archive of Public Broadcasting has old episodes of Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street Week.
As I understand, watching the video is only possible with a US IP address.
americanarchive.org/special_collec…
Peter Lynch, June 1980: "I think the biggest mistake is investors don't know what they own."
americanarchive.org/catalog/cpb-aa…
Posted quotes from Lynch's different appearances here:
Some episodes must be missing. For example, this legendary episode is on youtube but not at the AAPB:
Marty Zweig on Friday October 16, right before the 1987 crash.

Templeton right after the crash, commenting on the comparison to 1929:

"The panic this time was much greater much larger. But at that time ... the panic spread into general business conditions and that I do not expect this time."

americanarchive.org/catalog/cpb-aa…
Peter Lynch, January 1990:
"People spend so much time predicting the big picture. Alan Greenspan heads the Federal Reserve and he doesn't know what's going to happen with interest rates. How the heck am I supposed to know what's gonna happen to rates?"
americanarchive.org/catalog/cpb-aa…
1990: 20th Anniversary Show: black tie dinner with Peter Lynch and John Templeton

americanarchive.org/catalog/cpb-aa…
Templeton's quotes:
In 1990 @MarioGabelli talked private market value:
"What would a company be worth if an industrialist somewhere in the world wanted to own it."

americanarchive.org/catalog/cpb-aa…
1992 "best of" with Peter Lynch, John Templeton, Walter Wriston, Paul Samuelson, Milton Friedman
americanarchive.org/catalog/cpb-aa…
1997 with Jim Grant:
"I think one of the great trades the bond market going for is to be long treasuries against almost anything else you can even junk bonds to investment grade corporates to mortgages"
americanarchive.org/catalog/cpb-aa…
I read that Soros once was on the show. Haven't been able to find it.

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More from @NeckarValue

Frederik 'Neckar' Profile picture
11 Apr
Notes from a recent talk by @yliownyc about training, edge, game selection.

"What is your plan to be among the best performers?"
"Are you even the top 5% version of you?" Image
- Never fight fair fights
- Train hard
- Do good things with good people ('play infinite games') Image
What you can decide today (=what is in your control):
- How fast you learn
- How successful you *can* be

"Quality of your life sits on the other side of
focused effort (and tremendous struggle)" Image
Read 12 tweets
Frederik 'Neckar' Profile picture
10 Apr
Ray Dalio in 2000, on the history of predicting the future:
"most people who experienced consistent reinforcement for 10 years were inclined to believe that this would continue indefinitely"

academia.edu/33406891/Bridg… Image
"At the end of the 60’s I remember most believed that managing an economy is like managing most things, we get better at it with time; it is why we could expect even lower volatility in the future.

This view was held just prior to the one of the most volatile decades ever."
"I feel my understanding of the world economy is reasonably intimate going back to the 1920’s, meaning that I believe that I have both an intellectual and visceral sense of what they were like."

"I have learned that dramatic change is the norm and to doubt the new era theories."
Read 10 tweets
Frederik 'Neckar' Profile picture
9 Apr
Jeff Bezos on decision making:
If a decision is consequential and (nearly) irreversible: analyze carefully, wait to get more information.

If the decision can be reversed or is inconsequential: decide quickly and don't let it kill your momentum.
s2.q4cdn.com/299287126/file…
I tell myself as I agonize for weeks about a new logo or changing my avatar
"The biggest risk to irreversible decisions is deciding before you need to. The biggest risk to reversible ones is waiting until the last minute.
Make reversible decisions as soon as possible and irreversible decisions as late as possible."
@ShaneAParrish
fs.blog/2018/04/revers…
Read 5 tweets
Frederik 'Neckar' Profile picture
8 Apr
“Investing With Keynes”

"After losing 80% of his net worth in the '29 crash, he “switched from market timer to value investor, seeking to profit from swings in the market rather than participating in them.”

wsj.com/articles/inves…
Focus on intrinsic value (projected earnings)
Margin of safety
Think for yourself and be contrarian if necessary
"Steadfast holding" to limit transaction costs
Concentrate in a few great companies
Right temperament, balancing “equanimity and patience” with decisiveness.
"During his 25 years running the King’s College endowment, he generated an annual return of 16%, adapting his investment style to flourish even during the Great Depression and World War II."
Read 12 tweets
Frederik 'Neckar' Profile picture
7 Apr
This was me, one year ago. After years in allocator seats, I joined a friend who was spinning out to set up his own fund. Strong team, track record, locked-up capital.

It was so much harder than I expected it to be.
First off: I was so enamored with the idea of helping to build something that I overruled my gut. I knew I wasn't a good fit for a sales role.
My friends know I'm more comfortable in the basement of the NY Public Library than bantering with a group of strangers. It is what it is.
Bad idea. Shortly after COVID hit I was let go.

I was angry. Resentful. But in the back of my mind I knew that I hadn't been a good fit.

Today I can see the positive that came out of it.
Read 16 tweets
Frederik 'Neckar' Profile picture
6 Apr
In 2009, @BGurley bet on $AMZN in his PA because he saw the potential of AWS:

"it was obvious they were winning. You could see it in the number of startups that were building on their platform and that were adding to their platform"

abovethecrowd.com/2009/06/08/ama…
"Many are quick to point out that only small businesses and rogue developers in large organizations are using AWS. This is exactly how these markets develop. Amazon is selling to the innovators and early adopters — the exact customers that are prescribed in Crossing the Chasm.
"First, as a “retailer” Amazon was comfortable running a low-margin business."

"The second piece of the strategy leverages the company’s prowess in customer support ... They would have the best developer relations attitude and execution in the business."
Read 4 tweets

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