Jeff Bezos on decision making:
If a decision is consequential and (nearly) irreversible: analyze carefully, wait to get more information.
If the decision can be reversed or is inconsequential: decide quickly and don't let it kill your momentum. s2.q4cdn.com/299287126/file…
I tell myself as I agonize for weeks about a new logo or changing my avatar
"The biggest risk to irreversible decisions is deciding before you need to. The biggest risk to reversible ones is waiting until the last minute.
Make reversible decisions as soon as possible and irreversible decisions as late as possible." @ShaneAParrish fs.blog/2018/04/revers…
See @patrick_oshag interview with Tony Xu:
"Patrick: Is there a good example in the company's history of a high consequence decision that you intentionally slowed down?"
Ray Dalio in 2000, on the history of predicting the future:
"most people who experienced consistent reinforcement for 10 years were inclined to believe that this would continue indefinitely"
"At the end of the 60’s I remember most believed that managing an economy is like managing most things, we get better at it with time; it is why we could expect even lower volatility in the future.
This view was held just prior to the one of the most volatile decades ever."
"I feel my understanding of the world economy is reasonably intimate going back to the 1920’s, meaning that I believe that I have both an intellectual and visceral sense of what they were like."
"I have learned that dramatic change is the norm and to doubt the new era theories."
For the history nerds: the American Archive of Public Broadcasting has old episodes of Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street Week.
As I understand, watching the video is only possible with a US IP address. americanarchive.org/special_collec…
"After losing 80% of his net worth in the '29 crash, he “switched from market timer to value investor, seeking to profit from swings in the market rather than participating in them.”
Focus on intrinsic value (projected earnings)
Margin of safety
Think for yourself and be contrarian if necessary
"Steadfast holding" to limit transaction costs
Concentrate in a few great companies
Right temperament, balancing “equanimity and patience” with decisiveness.
"During his 25 years running the King’s College endowment, he generated an annual return of 16%, adapting his investment style to flourish even during the Great Depression and World War II."
This was me, one year ago. After years in allocator seats, I joined a friend who was spinning out to set up his own fund. Strong team, track record, locked-up capital.
It was so much harder than I expected it to be.
First off: I was so enamored with the idea of helping to build something that I overruled my gut. I knew I wasn't a good fit for a sales role.
My friends know I'm more comfortable in the basement of the NY Public Library than bantering with a group of strangers. It is what it is.
Bad idea. Shortly after COVID hit I was let go.
I was angry. Resentful. But in the back of my mind I knew that I hadn't been a good fit.
In 2009, @BGurley bet on $AMZN in his PA because he saw the potential of AWS:
"it was obvious they were winning. You could see it in the number of startups that were building on their platform and that were adding to their platform"
"Many are quick to point out that only small businesses and rogue developers in large organizations are using AWS. This is exactly how these markets develop. Amazon is selling to the innovators and early adopters — the exact customers that are prescribed in Crossing the Chasm.
"First, as a “retailer” Amazon was comfortable running a low-margin business."
"The second piece of the strategy leverages the company’s prowess in customer support ... They would have the best developer relations attitude and execution in the business."
"Most people have the brain power - almost everybody has the brain power to make money in the stock market. The question is whether you have the stomach for it. Whether you're willing to do a little bit of work. Those are the key elements. It's not that hard." Peter Lynch
"You can never predict the economy, you can't predict the stock market. But when you look at Dunkin' Donuts, you say 'they're the best donut chain.' You don't have to worry about Korean imports or what's happening with M1."
"You have to be very careful. Some stocks in the next 20 years, a lot of money is going to be made. A lot of money is going to be lost. People that gamble, that buy options. What a tragedy if you're right on a company and you have a three month option on, or a six month option."