One of my biggest losses/investing failures came on cannabis side. I did all the financial statement analysis, saw the demand was great and extrapolated the additional capacity coning online with the unit economics & got bulled up on select names i thought were great like $vff
Stock fell from 13 to 4 in a straight line as most companies got killed in the canadian space. What i missed was margin compression due to too much competition and oversupply. I try to take that lesson with me and when others see high margins i see potential for price erosion
I tend to be more contrarian in nature. For example very negative on $fubo & while less so dont see anything but never ending losses on $nvta for foreseeable future (maybe in 5-10 years could be ok but by then dilution will have hit hard as already has). $jmia imo hits 20 or 10
This was sparked by $zm, someone said how its cheaper now than pre pandemic, i dont agree & while it has name recognition its literally the best example of what could happen with so much competition. I think prices fall and costs rise.
If you have high margins u have to have a product with the best tech Thsts irreplaceable which to me is $crwd. Id much rather own that with their fcf % than $zm or most other companies
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