Thread by @Crussian17

$myov:
Company has a drug, Relugolix w/ 3 potential use cases so far:
1) Men’s health: already approved for Prostate Cancer on Dec 2020. From what i can tell drug is just as safe & works as well as the competition. Benefit is its the only oral drug; competition is only injectable

The mens health is monotherapy meaning just the drug while the other use cases are in combination with others for womens health. By the way if i had to go to doc to get an injection or be able to take medicine orally id skip the injection every time, think they take massive share

2) womens health, uterine Fluids: multiple phase 3 studies all passed with flying colors with all endpoints being met and safety is good. Imo pretty much a lock to be approved and FDA said would rule by 6/1 or earlier on this so less than 60 days from now (catalyst)

3) womens health endometriosis: this one isnt as much of a lock as the last one but could still very likely to be approved. Will be Submitting the NDA to the FDA in June and likely ruled on by end of this yr. seems to me 70-80% chance of approval

Bull case on the stock used to be that sumitomo (owns 55% of $myov) would just buy them out as they have a history of doing that plus in 2019 & 2020 they kept giving $myov huge loans at low interest rates since being a large shareholder last thing theyd want is to be diluted

Everyone expected deal of $30-35 once prostate cancer use case approved by FDA but instead $myov shocked & signed partnership with $pfe for joint commercialization of all three use cases. It was a great deal but stock plummeted as ppl wanted a buyout & now weren’t going to get it

Since then every positive thing $myov has announced has been met with relentless selling as no one buys bios to slog through a commercialization story especially during covid which makes it tough and instead just wants a buyout so ppl short and others sell.

$myov positives:
1) $pfe deal
2) appointed new ceo with track record in industry of successful commercialization
3) this week announced a new experienced chief commercial officer.
All of these plus horrible technicals for both the $xbi and $myov has led to relentless selling

$pfe deal worth 4.2B:
650M upfront
Gross profits shared 50/50
SG&A & R&D expenses related to Relugolix development/commercialization 50/50
1.75B sales milestones for mens health
1.75B same for women’s health
100M for FDA approval Uterine Fluids
100M for FDA approval Endometriosis

50M & double digit royalties if $pfe commercializes prostate cancer in Europe
Takeda: commercializing prostrate cancer in Asia paying $myov high single digit royalties
Gideon Richter: europe commercialization of womens health: 147.5M w/tiered royalties (40M upfront already paid)

Analyst targets range from 26 to 55 w/peak sales estimates of 2.5B to 2.8B/year
Net cash of 400M currently with market cap of 1.65B at $18/share
Sales: 62M this yr, 296M next yr which seems conservative since as part of $pfe deal their 200 salespeople are selling Relugolix

$pfe has extensive oncology resources which makes this deal so good, much faster & more efficient commercialization than $myov could do & cheaper since same $pfe salespeople will sell Relugolix at same time & already know & have relationships w/ all the docs

Faster & better than $myov having to spend time finding, interviewing, training salespeople who have to find docs and develop relationships and then sell. Cant overstate enough how much faster they will hit peak sales with additional 200 salesppl of $pfe in addition to $myov 100

Pipeline: a negative is theres not much pipeline though perhaps the time to worry about that is not when they have yet to approve 2/3 of their portfolio. Infertility is a use case thats already passed phase 1 and 2 years ago. Theyll start phase 3 after womens health approved

Bottom Line: I see compelling derisked long oppty in the bio space for a company with a great partnership and highly likely to get all three indications passed with fast track to commercialization and massive milestones and royalties. 30-50% upside heading into June approval imo