Thread by @Crussian17

Bearish thesis thread:
1) there are so many ppl that have made SO much $ over the past year on stocks like $zm, $crwd, $roku, $pins and now a million spaqs. Many are first time investors who have no clue hoe much capital gains tax they are going to owe from all the $ they made

2) but thats NOT all the taxes u owe! Anyone trading in & out or selling anything this yr ALSO owes estimated payments for the first q on top of 2020 capital gains which many dont realize. For example im up 90% ytd already and given 2019 taxes were small i owe a ton on 21 already

3) i would think ppl need to pay taxes couple weeks beforehand but some will sell earlier and then others will make a play on this even earlier to front run it as history has shown selling to pay taxes HAS caused liquidity event drops before

4) At first itll start with a drop & as always instead of selling ppl will look at it as oppty to buy cuz thats ehat they used to, then maybe another drop where ppl use margin to buy cuz dont want to sell when holdings not at the top and then a bigger drop where they panic sell

5) the HUGE risk is ppl that have gains they owe a lot of taxes on in 20 go on margin or do riskier things and lose $ in 21 where they dont have $ to pay 20 taxes... dont let that be you. Im 35% cash partly to pay my own taxes but also to make a bearish bet & have powder to buy

6) all this doesnt even contemplate the surging interest rates, its not about what they are as current rates are still very low but more about the speed at how they’re rising. 20 basis points this week alone. At that rate multiples esp for growth will contract

7) half the gains over last yr came from multiple expansion so even with improving economy stocks could fall from rising rates as tech especially after 2020 makes up outsized portion of market. 2T stimulus plus 3T infrastructure bill into a vaccine themed recovery...too much $

8) i could be wrong but given huge speculation in meme stocks, rising rates, potential for selling to pay taxes & so many new ipos/spaqs coming out each day, i see market as overextended. Im bullish select names that ill continue to hold otherwise bought puts on indexes

Appendix: stocks I continue to hold:
$twtr, $pins, $gogo, $ntnx, $fiii, $rh, $rkt, $gdrx, $insg, $aone

Leaps: $aapl, $rh, $pins, $ntnx

Non leap options: $twtr sept 75 call, $gdrx March 50 call, $spy 390 put, $qqq 330 put, $rkt 18 and 22 calls, $ntnx March 30 call