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10 Apr, 9 tweets, 3 min read
Ukraine crisis - a summary of the last 24 hours:
1/ Ukraine army chief declared they have no intention of using military force to retake the Donbas.
english.alarabiya.net/News/world/202…
2. More shelling and remote minelaying on Donbas front line
liveuamap.com
3. Zelensky imposed sanctions on former president Yanukovich and other former ministers.
ukrinform.ua/rubric-polytic…
4. USA demanded Russia "clarify" the purpose of major troop deployments, saying unsatisfied with "weak" answers about training exercise. defense.gov/Explore/News/A…
5.USA notified Turkey it will send 2x warships into the Black Sea next week. Probably 2x Arleigh Burke Class destroyers USS Roosevelt and USS Donald Cook
thedrive.com/the-war-zone/4…
6. Turkey issues video claiming Greece, Germany etc are harbouring terrorists (presumed quid-pro-quo for the above). Erdogan set to call both Putin and Zelensky.
7. Russian trains apparently continue to arrive in Crimea and the Azov region with armor, logistics, per OSINT posted on Twitter. Most Twitter OSINT still showing APCs parked in rows
8. Other OSINT shows US Reaper drone flying from Sicily to the Black Sea, and now on station.
9. Various high level phone calls and visits going on between Western countries and Ukraine, masking no clarity on Russian intent, and no agreed line of action.

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Paul Mason Profile picture
9 Apr
No defence experts I talk to claim to be certain what Putin plans in Ukraine. What we know is: 1/ Russia launched a big military buildup, giving itself the ability a) break out of Crimea to the north and b) stage a landing on the Azov coast (map not mine h/t @mhmck)...
2/ Ukraine’s president Zelensky looks out of his depth. He has called for UKR to be allowed to join NATO, which is a non-starter. I say this as someone highly critical of Russia’s geopolitics and internal repression....
3/ I am told the Ukrainian military preparations look currently shambolic, as they believe the USA will ride diplomatically to their rescue and, in any case, are numerically and technologically outclassed...
Read 12 tweets
Paul Mason Profile picture
8 Apr
Alba, NIP, WEP... the rise of the popup party is about more than just networks lowering the barrier to entry... it's what happens when people contemplate the permanent rule of English Tory xenophobes... 1/ newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
2/ British politics looks less like the A-Level Politics syllabus than at any time since the 1930s... "liberalism, conservatism and socialism" have all fragmented culturally... newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
3/ FPTP is holding fragmentation at bay, but if you look at Spain, Ireland, Germany or Italy - the same centrifugal forces in politics are there.... newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
Read 9 tweets
Paul Mason Profile picture
3 Apr
FCDO's @DominicRaab says he's "gravely concerned" by the Russian buildup on Ukraine's borders. Me too, and we should be doing everything we can to calm things down. So what's going on? 1/ Here's the Russian deployment video traced on a map citeam.org/ru-forces-near…
2/ What is Putin trying to achieve? No Western government seems to possess a clear answer. This @ICDS_Tallinn analysis says: flareup, insertion of Russian peacekeepers followed by annexation icds.ee/en/rumours-of-…
3/ Meanwhile in Belarus, the slow but steady takeover of the private sector by Russian interests, and redirection of export traffic from the EU to the Russia atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainea…
Read 9 tweets
Paul Mason Profile picture
28 Mar
I could see today's anti-left briefings coming from within the PLP a mile off - here's what's driving it 1/ The social-democratic centre left is a theoretical deadzone ... it has no explanations for its own failure... newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
2/ ...So it's always a "failure to communicate" rather than the strategy itself.... The real problem - as I, @meadwaj and others point out - is that the Tory project has morphed radically... newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
3/ The Tories are now a machine for staying in power by throwing money at individual communities, demographics and problems... the central bank will subsidise that until the UK becomes a one-party state... newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
Read 10 tweets
Paul Mason Profile picture
13 Mar
Contents of the Integrated Review are being drip-fed to the Times this weekend. Get ready for 2 weeks of hubris and bullshit about Britain as a "global power" operating in the Pacific and space, while the army is cut by 10,000. Thread 1/ ... thetimes.co.uk/article/defenc…
2/ The IR is both a review of foreign policy and defence: on the foreign policy, it's set to open up the first truly partisan situation in UK politics in a lifetime. Why? Labour will oppose the "tilt to the Indo-Pacific" - and so does Joe Biden... see below...
3/ The army is getting cut because its chiefs refused to play the game of the IR, which is talk about AI, space, cyber and then build hi-tech platforms with no resilient industry behind them in times of crisis...
Read 11 tweets
Paul Mason Profile picture
9 Mar
Labour's @RachelReevesMP has written an important strategic article in the @NewStatesman which I assume reflects frontbench thinking ... it has implications for the left that need to be decoded... newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20… 1/ Here goes... (thread)....
2/ The Tories haven't just borrowed some Corbynist policies, they too have moved back from the individual to "community" as the basis for politics - so this is Base One of Labour's strategy: begs the question of how communities are defined and imagined...
3/ Very important attempt to differentiate from the Tories, English (and Scottish) nationalism, and ethnonationalist politics. But Labour needs to be a lot harder attacking the rising xenophobia that makes this argument necessary...
Read 16 tweets

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