"Building a secure, prosperous, and democratic Ukraine, even if parts of the country remain under Russian occupation, is the best way to counter Moscow’s ideological and military aggression in Europe." THREAD 1/
A successful, democratic Ukraine will inspire new democratic possibilities inside Russia and other former Soviet republics—just as a failed Ukrainian democracy and economy will serve Putin’s narrative about the futility of revolutions allegedly sponsored by the United States. 2/
The Biden administration should therefore increase U.S. military, political, and economic support for Ukraine to help its stalled reform efforts succeed. 3/
"Trump did real damage to U.S.-Ukrainian relations. His administration rightly provided lethal assistance to the Ukrainian military and increased U.S. military training and assistance to Kyiv." 4/
"...Trump undermined this progress by trying to leverage U.S. assistance to advance his 2020 reelection efforts. During the Trump years, Ukraine’s economic and political reform agenda drifted, and the political influence of big business conglomerates grew." 5/
"In the new Biden era, U.S. federal agencies, Congress, businesses, and NGOs should engage more deeply with Ukraine’s government and society to assist democratic and market reforms." 6 END THREAD
Looking forward to discussing my ideas for reform for U.S. (1) diplomacy, (2) democracy promotion, and (2) USG media, information & public diplomacy efforts on Mar. 25th . Sign up here. americanpurpose.com/events/mar-25-… THREAD 1/
"The Cold War analogy distorts, more than illuminates, dynamics in US-China relations today." THREAD 1/
Advocates for a new Cold War w/ China underplay the costs and mistakes of the actual Cold War—a tragic era that resulted in millions of deaths, including tens of thousands of Americans, support for autocracies in both the East & West, and billions of dollars spent inefficiently.
This new hegemonic paradigm also forgets (whether consciously or unconsciously) that containment was not a single, consistent US strategy but stretched to mean everything from détente with Kremlin communists to rolling back communism around the developing world. 3/
In dealing with China today, US leaders should emulate successes & avoid mistakes from the Cold War. THREAD 1/
"American leaders must learn another lesson of the Cold War—détente with a communist regime also will not end confrontation or produce permanent cooperation."
"They tried that approach in the 1970s, and it didn’t work. ...The United States cannot end its great power ideological rivalry with China anytime soon. Instead, it must be managed." 2/
"That leaves only a third, complicated, nuanced path—a patient mix of sustained confrontation and cooperation, containment and engagement, isolation and integration." 3/
I wrote this in 2009: "To pretend that the status quo [in the Middle East] can be maintained is wishful thinking. The real question is not whether existing political institutions will change, but how they will change." THREAD 1/
"Will the process of political change be evolutionary , as were the transitions from authoritarian rule to democracy in southern Europe in the 1970s or revolutionary, as in the case from the transition from monarchy to theocracy in Iran after 1979?" 2/
"Assuming that the configuration of autocratic regimes in place today will persist 50 years from now is much more naive than believing that some of these regimes might succeed in making the transition to democracy." 3/
[During the Cold War] The overly expansive containment mission also pulled the United States into immoral alliances and partnerships as US presidents greenlighted coups, embraced dictators, provided aid to illiberal governments and movements, ... THREAD 1/
"and encouraged societal mobilization against communist regimes when chances of success were near zero." 2/
"These mistakes in the ideological fight during the Cold War must be recognized in order to help shape a more successful and nuanced policy of competition, containment, and engagement with China today." 3/
"In the Cold War, American and European scientists cooperated on projects from nuclear weapons to computer design, animated in part by a common cause to compete with Soviet scientists. This collaborative spirit must be rekindled again." THREAD 1/
" A new union of democracies could develop collective responses to Chinese technological challenges and advance together shared policies and norms for" 2/
(1) nurturing cooperation between 5G and 6G suppliers in democracies (i.e., an industrial policy for fostering synergies among Nokia, Samsung, and Ericsson); (2) containing, exposing, and deterring digital meddling; 3/