Thread by @petermbenglish

Intriguing conclusion to this generally excellent article on screening for Covid-19.

thelancet.com/journals/lanep…
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It is good to see references to the frameworks for thinking about screening - very familiar to public health specialists like myself, but less well understood by others, including some in the medical professions.
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The conclusion intrigued me because it didn't even attempt to answer the question in the title; and it sat on the fence wrt whether screening for Covid-19 (and any very widespread testing amounts to screening) is a good idea.
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I also felt that it overemphasised false positives. Yes, they will happen; yes some people will be asked to self-isolate "unnecessarily". But…
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…But - short of having more specific tests - if the alternative is that we ALL have to self-isolate ("lockdown), it's better that a tiny proportion of people with a (false-) positive test result do so, rather than that we all do so.
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