Thread by @Jean__Fisch

Vaccination in 🇧🇪: There have been quite a few changes over the last month

➡️Extension between two jabs for AZ to 12 weeks
➡️Updates on supply (incl J&J)
➡️Etc

Time to update the vaccination outlook⬇️⬇️⬇️

Regarding deliveries

➡️Pfizer confirmed and even exceeds its deliveries
➡️Moderna set to deliver 0.6m doses
➡️AZ delivers more but still does many short-term changes
➡️J&J set to deliver 1st doses of next week
➡️Curevac indicated that it expects approval around Jun 1

1/N

So I updated the details of deliveries based on the latest supply information but kept a cautious estimation on Moderna, AZ, J&J and Curevac regarding the doses they will effectively supply until year-end

2/N

There can now be some 12 wks between 1st and 2nd doses. This requires to keep a “reserve” stock just in case supply is interrupted

Pfizer & Curevac should be reliable ➡️1wk of 2nd doses

AZ and Moderna are still anything by reliable ➡️3wks of 2nd doses

3/N

I then simply made a vaccination plan where as many doses are jabbed as possible given
/ Supply
/ Needed reserve stock at week end

(NB: Excess stock is the stock available minus the reserve stock needed for 2nd doses)

4/N

Let's stay one second on this plan to understand it via an example

The peak of stock in Jul is needed because there are a lof of AZ 2nd doses to be jabbed in July-Aug

That's why stock is high but excess stock low

5/N

The result? 🇧🇪 is likely to have

➡️offered a 1st dose its adult population by mid-Aug
➡️fully vaccinated its adult population by mid-Sep

6/N

There are many uncertainties, e.g.
1) Doses deliveries in S2 are still speculative -> Upside/downside
2) Potentially higher doses / vial was not taken into account -> Upside
3) Capability to deliver any dose within the wk -> downside
4) 100% uptake of the vaccine -> downside

7/N

But overall, this gives a good feel (give or take 10 days I think) where 🇧🇪 Belgium's vaccination is heading to