At the end of the bull market, popularity contests are in abundance.
But, if you will buy the most popular companies and allocate to the most popular industries like everyone else, what is your edge to outperform?
"First answer the question, 'What's your edge?" — Seth Klarman
"I think Julian Robertson said it best and I think to some extent that's why the Tiger Cubs have been so successful.
'What is your edge?'
When having a bear or bull discussion, he would constantly say 'what is your edge?', 'what do you know that the market doesn’t?'"
"What is in your process that gives you an edge?
Whether it’s trading-wise, whether it’s research-wise that basically sets you aside?
Do you see things differently and do you see the reality versus the perception of reality?"
— Jim Chanos
"If you play games where other people have the aptitudes & you don't, you're going to lose.
And that's as close to certain as any prediction that you can make. You have to figure out where you have an edge & play within your circle of competence."
— Charlie Munger
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Cash levels have constantly remained low throughout this bull market.
The majority are invested & any turbulence sees central banks step in, saving the day.
However, low cash will eventually be a concern when forced liquidation starts since there will be no marginal buyers.
S&P 500 is approaching a record valuation of 3 times forward-looking sales.
Even if the market was to crash by -30%, valuations would be expensive since the market would trade at around 2X revenue — this was a top back in the year 2000.
CBs have created a monster bubble.
Jeff Gundlach is saying the US stock market is incredibly overpriced by any traditional metric and the next crash will be for the history books.
Thinks the $VIX will spike to never-before-seen levels surpassing the crash of 1987 & 2008.
Mezzanine financing is one of the most opportunistic ways to allocate capital, whether it's in public or illiquid markets — and yet it is very misunderstood.
In this super thread, which will be ongoing, I will disclose the theory & practice I've learned about the asset.
Mezzanine financing occurs in situations where a business or a project has insufficient creditworthiness or collateral to borrow in classic (& cheaper) form like a bank loan or senior debt & potentially where owners/sponsors refuse to dilute shareholders or give up legal control.
From what I've learned over the years, mezzanine deals are looked at differently in the US vs other developed markets like Eurozone & Anglo-Saxon jurisdictions.
There is a large misunderstanding between players, both with private equity & real estate, due to these developments.
A collection of threads, which will focus on what we are doing with our capital and the strategies we employ to achieve targeted returns in public & alternative assets.
None of this is advice, but merely a journal of how we allocate & opportunities we are attracted to.
We invest in real estate passively (LPs) & actively (sole ownership or JVs).
We also focus on residential strategies like value add & development in several countries.
This thread showcases one of our luxury value adds in Prague. 👇
Also known as "the funding gap" between classic bank loans & common equity ownership, it is one of the most opportunistic ways to allocate capital from the risk vs reward standpoint.