At the end of the bull market, popularity contests are in abundance.

But, if you will buy the most popular companies and allocate to the most popular industries like everyone else, what is your edge to outperform?

"First answer the question, 'What's your edge?" — Seth Klarman
"I think Julian Robertson said it best and I think to some extent that's why the Tiger Cubs have been so successful.

'What is your edge?'

When having a bear or bull discussion, he would constantly say 'what is your edge?', 'what do you know that the market doesn’t?'"
"What is in your process that gives you an edge?

Whether it’s trading-wise, whether it’s research-wise that basically sets you aside?

Do you see things differently and do you see the reality versus the perception of reality?"

— Jim Chanos
"If you play games where other people have the aptitudes & you don't, you're going to lose.

And that's as close to certain as any prediction that you can make. You have to figure out where you have an edge & play within your circle of competence."

— Charlie Munger

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More from @TihoBrkan

6 Apr
Precious metals are a disappointment to the investment community.

Cryptocurrencies have stolen the attention, gold's centuries of history all but forgotten & the business news anchors laugh at metals.

For contrarians, it's probably a good time to start paying attention.
Everyone has their own view on this asset class.

There is a die-hard Goldbugs camp, there is also a lot of hate towards Gold, plus everything in between.

Gold has become very much disliked in the West, while countries like China & India have a strong tradition towards it.
Gold floated in the early 1970s, but my chart starts in 1988 — cutting out the 70s is maybe not a fair way to measure its performance.

Regardless, it should be clear that Gold has had periods of very strong returns (25% CAGR over a decade) as well as disappointing periods.
Read 8 tweets
1 Apr
Emerging Markets thread.

The EM stocks have been consolidating for 14 years plagued by one crisis after another.

For their stocks to outperform, we need:

• sustained weaker $USD
• accelerating growth vs DM
• higher commodities (inflation)
• booming global exports (demand) Image
Relative to the US market, Emerging Markets have been underperforming since 2011 — coincides with the bottom in the $USD.

The underperformance is actually worse if we remove the China Tech sector (Tencent, Alibaba, etc).

EM: a value trap or once-in-a-decade buying opportunity? Image
Within the Emerging Economies complex, Asia has been the outperformer while the rest of the countries have lagged considerably.

The chart below shows the EM ex Asia, which recently traded below the March 2009 bottom (11 years ago).

These countries are dirt cheap, in our view. Image
Read 7 tweets
31 Mar
Cash levels have constantly remained low throughout this bull market.

The majority are invested & any turbulence sees central banks step in, saving the day.

However, low cash will eventually be a concern when forced liquidation starts since there will be no marginal buyers. Image
S&P 500 is approaching a record valuation of 3 times forward-looking sales.

Even if the market was to crash by -30%, valuations would be expensive since the market would trade at around 2X revenue — this was a top back in the year 2000.

CBs have created a monster bubble. Image
Jeff Gundlach is saying the US stock market is incredibly overpriced by any traditional metric and the next crash will be for the history books.

Thinks the $VIX will spike to never-before-seen levels surpassing the crash of 1987 & 2008.

markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/bi…
Read 16 tweets
30 Mar
Mezzanine financing is one of the most opportunistic ways to allocate capital, whether it's in public or illiquid markets — and yet it is very misunderstood.

In this super thread, which will be ongoing, I will disclose the theory & practice I've learned about the asset.
Mezzanine financing occurs in situations where a business or a project has insufficient creditworthiness or collateral to borrow in classic (& cheaper) form like a bank loan or senior debt & potentially where owners/sponsors refuse to dilute shareholders or give up legal control.
From what I've learned over the years, mezzanine deals are looked at differently in the US vs other developed markets like Eurozone & Anglo-Saxon jurisdictions.

There is a large misunderstanding between players, both with private equity & real estate, due to these developments.
Read 43 tweets
30 Mar
A collection of threads, which will focus on what we are doing with our capital and the strategies we employ to achieve targeted returns in public & alternative assets.

None of this is advice, but merely a journal of how we allocate & opportunities we are attracted to.
We invest in real estate passively (LPs) & actively (sole ownership or JVs).

We also focus on residential strategies like value add & development in several countries.

This thread showcases one of our luxury value adds in Prague. 👇

A mega-thread on mezzanine financing.

Also known as "the funding gap" between classic bank loans & common equity ownership, it is one of the most opportunistic ways to allocate capital from the risk vs reward standpoint.

Read 5 tweets
27 Mar
Few more things on mezzanine debt.

Important to understand mezz play is not super-safe debt, but rather a hybrid "in-between piece" in a classic debt & equity structure.

The inter-creditor deed will often not allow mezz to foreclose without the senior's permission.

Moreover...
...if the values are down 35%?

In a single year? Highly unlikely, but can happen.

As the project goes into administration — depending on your LTV — mezzanine will most likely be in trouble or wiped out (if leverage was too high).

But so are equity investors, right?
So it shouldn't be a surprise.

Keep in mind that well-structured mezz can survive a -20% to -25% downturn — equity often cannot.

In other words, mezz debt is for investors who are after higher returns & are willing to take more risk (with solid downside protection).
Read 4 tweets

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