1) Quebec’s Health Minister expressed concern on Sunday that 58% of new cases across the province are being identified in people under the age of 40 in the third wave. In this thread, I will show how #COVID19 hospitalizations are occurring here in younger age groups, too.
2) Quebec on Sunday posted a total of 608 #COVID19 hospitalizations, up by 25 since Saturday. The chart below shows that 10 of those hospitalizations occurred in Quebecers in their 30s. Still, the predominant group are those in their 60s, 20 years younger than in the first wave.
3) This is happening for two reasons. Many Quebecers in their 80s and 90s have already been vaccinated against #COVID19, although a good number are still being hospitalized for the #pandemic illness, as the chart below reveals.
4) The more transmissible B.1.1.7 variant — now circulating widely in Quebec — was found in a Danish study to pose a hospitalization risk that’s 64% higher than the older so-called wild type strains. In Brazil, the P.1 strain has led to most ICU stays occurring in those under 40.
5) Quebec posted an increase of 728 variant cases Sunday for a cumulative total of 16,173. Montreal posted the biggest increase by far, 388, suggesting the third wave is rising in the city. Authorities have yet to make public the genetic sequencing of thousands of variant cases.
6) To date, nearly 90% of the variants sequenced in Quebec have turned out to be of the B.1.1.7 lineage. The next most common strain is B.1.351, which first arose in South Africa. It’s been detected in seven regions and comprises 9.64% of all sequenced cases in Quebec.
7) Since B.1.351 has been shown to be resistant to the AstraZeneca vaccine, authorities are not administering it in the hot spot of Abitibi-Témiscamingue, which has 128 such cases. A new Israeli study has found that this variant may evade the Pfizer vaccine, too.
8) Meanwhile, Montreal’s seven-day rolling average of #COVID19 cases per 100,000 residents rose to 17.10 on Sunday from 15.48 on April 1, another sign that the third wave is rising in the city. Please take a glimpse of the chart below.
9) At the neighborhood level, the east end of the city has been responsible for most #COVID19 cases as well as hospitalizations in the past seven days. The number of hospitalizations at Santa Cabrini Hospital near Saint-Léonard has nearly doubled to 33 in a week.
10) On Saturday, health professionals administered just over 9,000 vaccines in Montreal, down from the record of more than 15,000 the day before. To date, 26.37% of the city’s population has been partially inoculated. That compares with 20.34% in the Capitale-Nationale.
11) Finally, as Montreal was to return to an 8 p.m. curfew on Sunday, the province added five #COVID19 fatalities to a death toll of 10,742, representing 46.08% of all such deaths in Canada. End of thread. Please limit your social contacts and wear a mask in public.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

13 Apr
1) In addition to the B.1.1.7 variant that originated in the U.K., there were tentative signs on Monday that three other variants are beginning to pop up in regions across Quebec. In this thread, I will assess what this means.
2) The B.1.1.7 variant is still the predominant one in Quebec, with 1,434 cases, up by five since last week. This doesn’t mean there were only five new cases of B.1.1.7, though. There’s still a backlog of thousands of cases to sequence genetically. Image
3) Apart from B.1.1.7, the Outaouais declared for the first time a B.1.351 case. This #COVID19 strain originated in South Africa and has been shown to be resistant to the AstraZeneca vaccine. Cases in the B.1.351 hot spot of Abitibi-Témiscamingue inched up by three to 131. Image
Read 15 tweets
11 Apr
1) Since April 1, the age group in Quebec reporting both the greatest number of #COVID19 hospitalizations and the sharpest increase are those in their 60s, according to the latest provincial data. This is a drop of 20 years from the first wave.
2) The data by Quebec’s public health institute shows a net increase of 80 #pandemic hospitalizations since the start of the month for a total of 583. This suggests the third wave is already having a deleterious effect on the province.
3) The number of #COVID19 deaths has risen by 61 to 10,737 in Quebec since April 1. In the eight days prior to the start of April, the number of deaths rose by 49. Again, this suggests the third wave is growing worse in Quebec.
Read 10 tweets
10 Apr
1) COVID-19 outbreaks in Quebec workplaces are not getting the attention they deserve, but they’ve been surging just as much, if not more, than those in schools. On Friday, the number of such clusters jumped by 25 to 499. In this thread, I will address the workplace phenomenon.
2) Since April 1, the number of #COVID19 outbreaks in schools across Quebec has risen from 175 to 251, or 43%. During the same period, workplace outbreaks have climbed from 349 to 499, or 43% as well. Yet the risks of workplace contagion are not being discussed as much.
3) Perhaps that’s one of the reasons why Quebec made masks mandatory for employees in all workplaces on Thursday. No doubt the more transmissible variants spurred public health authorities to act more aggressively in this third wave. But which workplaces are the most vulnerable?
Read 10 tweets
9 Apr
1) The impact of the third wave on Quebec hospitals thus far is not nearly as severe as what is going on in Ontario, but there are ominous signs the situation is deteriorating in the acute-care system here. In this thread, I will examine those signs.
2) As I report in my @mtlgazette column tonight, over-burdened Maisonneuve-Rosemont Hospital is now offloading #COVID19 patients to nearby Santa Cabrini Hospital. The reason is a severe shortage of nurses. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
3) In the past nine days, the number of #COVID hospitalizations in Quebec has jumped from 487 to 566. The biggest increase is being observed in the 60-to-69 age group, as you can glimpse from the chart below. In the first wave, it was patients in their 80s who were hospitalized.
Read 10 tweets
8 Apr
1) On the eve of a second 5 p.m. news conference tomorrow by Premier François Legault this week, it’s now clear that the #pandemic in Quebec has deteriorated sharply in the past two days. In this thread, I will take stock of the latest worrisome trends.
2) First, let me extend my heartfelt condolences to the family of the 16-year-old student who died of #COVID19 at Sainte-Justine Hospital Saturday, the youngest person in Quebec to have succumbed to the #coronavirus, most likely from one of the variants. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
3) Quebec posted an increase of 29 #COVID19 hospitalizations Wednesday, raising the total in the province to 543. The increase was the highest since Jan. 17, when Quebec was at the peak of its second wave. Yet Health Minister Christian Dubé downplayed the severity of the spike.
Read 11 tweets
7 Apr
1) A record 27 schools across Quebec announced on Tuesday that they have suspected variant #COVID19 cases. Most are found in the Capitale-Nationale region, which has already shut schools until April 12. But seven schools are located in the Montreal area.
2) On Tuesday evening, Premier François Legault backtracked on his decision requiring Montreal high school seniors to attend classes five days a week. But as the latest list by covidecolesquebec.org shows, the variants are still circulating widely in Montreal classrooms.
3) Legault again asserted that the situation is under control in Montreal. Please let me draw your attention to an article by my @mltgazette colleague @katelynthomas that Montreal's #COVID19 case numbers are again rising from a plateau. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
Read 10 tweets

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