Jon Worth Profile picture
13 Apr, 11 tweets, 2 min read
This UK-got-it-right, EU-got-it-wrong on vaccine supply and rollout line, as espoused by Nick Clegg earlier, is overly simplistic

Here's what Clegg said:
theneweuropean.co.uk/brexit-news/eu…

This thread will attempt a more balanced view
Was the Commission handling vaccine procurement collectively the right thing to do for the EU-27?

*Absolutely*

Because it means a fair distribution of vaccines, regardless of wealth of the Member State or its own supply
Did the European Commission handle that process as well as it could have?

*Probably not*

It might have focused less on price, and more on speed of delivery. Saying that with hindsight is easier
Has the EU (and EMA) got it right on approvals?

*Probably*

There was a couple of weeks between MHRA and EMA approval for AZ, BioNTech and Moderna. EU also has J&J approved, UK does not
What about production?

*Very solid*

Recall that EU has exported 21m doses so far to UK, and UK none to EU - how would UK rollout look without that?
Also related to this, Q2 looks *excellent* in the EU - 200m doses of BioNTech, the vaccine with the most stable production until now. 55m doses of J&J. Production from EU supply chains that exceeds EU needs in Q2
By contrast the UK's situation in Q2 is more rocky. UK is heavily dependent on AZ, and production of that has not scaled so easily. Still reliant on imports for everything else (for now - Novavax might change the situation)
Also the way the Commission, and the Member States (esp 🇳🇱🇪🇸🇩🇪) have handled the J&J issue has been good - there was a danger that'd be limited due to bottling in the USA, but there's now an EU-only supply chain for it. The EU *has learned*
What about rollout?

*Problematic, but problems are being overcome*

What the UK mastered - and the EU's Member States did not - was swift early roll out. The UK was a couple of weeks ahead here. FR, DE vaccinating at a faster rate than UK is now though
So - in short - the UK managed slightly faster approval, and slightly faster roll out, but it has been dependent on imports from the EU and its vaccination rate is now limited by supply constraints in the way the EU's currently is not
Sure, there is room for improvement. But that is not "the EU letting itself down"

/ends

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More from @jonworth

12 Apr
Why there will not be a night train through the Channel Tunnel any time soon...

... explaining that the only way I can - with a diagram!
This is an attempt to give an overview as to why it'd be so damned hard to do - as opposed to the breezy optimism about it in Sunday's Observer

Don't get me wrong: trains are great, and night trains are great, but a mainland Europe to London night train is not going to happen
FYI @rail @seatsixtyone @McWhirterAlex @philrichardsuk @Koelschlenny @DavidJackmanUK for input into this. And you'll all probably say the diagram is in the end *too simple*!

/ends
Read 4 tweets
9 Apr
2016
Remainers: Brexit will be a problem for Northern Ireland
Leavers: no it won't

2021
Remainers: Brexit is a problem for Northern Ireland
Leavers: We didn't go far enough with Brexit / the violence is not connected to Brexit / the EU imposed the NI Protocol 🤦‍♂️
Further excuses:

it's Remainers' fault for not backing soft brexit (via @timmokx)

NI hasn't actually had Brexit (Kate Hoey, thanks @heeney77 for the reminder)

the EU imposed a hard border with Art 16 / vaccines
The EU used Ireland as a weapon in Brexit talks (@eufactsexplain)

*ALL* bullshit

Those who promoted Brexit, especially Johnson's Brexit: you made keeping peace in Northern Ireland one hell of a lot harder. This is ON YOU.
Read 5 tweets
8 Apr
The European Parliament is not taking #Brexit scrutiny nearly seriously enough

You your approach is shamefully poor
@davidmcallister
@berndlange
@ManfredWeber
@CHansenEU
@KatiPiri
@NathalieLoiseau
@ph_lamberts

🇪🇺 citizens deserve better, not least those in 🇮🇪

An angry 🧵

1/25
Let's not forget that when the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement was finally sorted on 24 Dec, it was provisionally applied - allowing the EP to do its scrutiny this spring

2/25
Provisional application was extended from the initial end of February deadline until the end of April

That's 2️⃣2️⃣ days from now

3/25
Read 25 tweets
7 Apr
The essential problem for Eurostar is UK Govt doesn't know what it *wants* from long distance international rail through the Channel Tunnel

The UK Government wants to minimise its costs, and doesn't want problems, but beyond that is *has no answers*
Does the UK believe in competition on the London-Paris/Brussels routes? And if so, what sort?

Is that people might fly instead competition enough? Or is on-rail competition also desirable?
Until COVID hit, Eurostar could afford to be more expensive than flights, because the time saved and better convenience meant people favoured the train

But is that the right answer?
Read 11 tweets
1 Apr
A fortnight ago I wanted to answer a question: would a 🇪🇺 vaccine export ban be justified?

I was somehow instinctively against any such ban, and still am

But digging into it revealed the worst of out politics, media and social media, and how badly we cope with complexity

1/22
The essence of the issue is that this is both an ideological/ethical matter, and a practical one - and the interplay between the two is complicated

No person's response to the question ban-or-not can be based either all on ethics or all on practicality

2/22
Or - putting it another way - export of a small number of vaccines might be easier to justify than export of a massive number that would slow down the exporting region's own vaccination drive

3/22
Read 22 tweets
1 Apr
2 days ago I wrote about Janssen / Johnson & Johnson 💉, with the tentative conclusion that an 🇪🇺-based supply chain was solid enough to mean there would be no EU-US-J&J spat to mirror the EU-UK-AZ spat

Does that still hold?
What changed?

15m J&J doses at the Baltimore 🇺🇸 plant had to be ditched

nytimes.com/2021/03/31/wor…
So will J&J divert doses intended for the EU to the USA to make up for that shortfall?

The answer to that is:
* We don't know *

We have nothing yet to indicate doses are diverted
Read 11 tweets

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