There's a 💊 drug (named Zolgensma) that costs $2.5mn (Rs 18 crore). Currently the world's costliest drug.

Why is it so expensive?

(a tiny thread)
1/ It treats a rare genetic disease Spinal Muscular Atrophy (SMA).

SMA is a horrible disease that kills 90% of babies before the age of 2.

Until Zolgensma, it was untreatable.
2/ The disease incidence rate is extremely low.

For example, in the US there would be only 400 new cases per year.

(Such diseases are called rare or orphan diseases)
3/ Developing this treatment took USD 800 m of investment over a couple of years.

Why did this take so much money?

Well, correcting a faulty gene in our body is *difficult*. Researching such uncharted approaches takes a lot of money.
4/ Ultimately, the pharma and biotech industry prices therapies using a metric called QALY (roughly, quality of years added)

In this case, where 90% of babies that would have died now don't, the drug manufacturers feel $2.5mn price tag is justified.
5/ An immediate gut reaction would suggest this is an absurd price and governments should never allow such high price tags.

But you remove the ability to charge high and all innovation will stop. Someone needs to invest $800m to develop this. And they want economic incentives.
6/ And in any cases, the cost is paid by health insurance (private or public).

Any particular individual would never be able to afford this.

So we should vouch for both high drug prices (for more innovation) and universal health care.
7/ Still curious?

Watch this presentation by @murphey_richard who dives into this drug as a case study.

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More from @paraschopra

12 Apr
Crypto is the future of our society.

(a 🧵 thread on my podcast with @balajis)
1/ Balaji is a deep thinker on crypto and its implications.

Formerly the CTO of Coinbase and General Partner at Andreessen Horowitz, he’s believes crypto technologies such as bitcoin will change the world the say way Internet did.

Here's the podcast:

2/ We touch on a lot of topics in the podcast.

• How to assess a strange new thing's potential
• How technologies rise and fall
• How to tell what's a fad and what's real
• How to identify nascent technology that will change the world
Read 65 tweets
11 Apr
I bet our descendants will get bored of exploring new planets faster than our ancestors got bored of exploring new lands.

Here’s why.
1/ Unlike distant lands, we can observe space from far.

We know an insane amount of stuff about Mars.

Compare this to Columbus who didn’t even know that the Americas existed.
2/ Unlike exploring the Earth, we have no expectation of stumbling upon another culture or language.

We have no expectation of stumbling upon something new to trade with.

We won’t find cloves or silk on Mars.

Space is barren.
Read 6 tweets
11 Apr
Hubble deep field, the most amazing picture of our universe.

(a tiny 🧵 thread)
1/ I learned so much from this recent paper by @tobyordoxford (h/t to @anderssandberg for tweeting)

This thread is based on that paper, so if you’re intrigued, highly recommend reading the entire thing arxiv.org/pdf/2104.01191…
2/ One of the most awe-inspiring insights from the paper is that many of the galaxies we see in the Hubble deep field image are FOREVER beyond our reach.

I don’t mean just practically, but even theoretically.
Read 17 tweets
10 Apr
Been looking at my historical chats and emails to understand how I thought about #bitcoin.

I think it’s a great way to adjust mental models for the future.
1/ In a 2011 chat, someone said they’re buying $5k worth of bitcoins (when it was $30 per bitcoin).

I told them I think it’s a bubble :)
2/ As per the emails, I and friends were pretty excited about it in 2013.

Understood the technology properly.

We were even cooking up ideas to make bitcoin transactions simple, like a PayPal for bitcoins.

But at $600 per bitcoin, I decided it was overhyped.
Read 12 tweets
9 Apr
How investing in startups is different from other kinds of investing.

(a tiny thread)
1/ The biggest difference is in mindset.

With startups, you don’t think how they can fail because they almost certainly will fail.

Rather you think about their best case - how big they can get if everything goes right.
2/ Another difference is in valuations.

In a sense, a startup company should be defined by its ability to tell a growth story instead of its size.
Read 14 tweets
6 Apr
All startups belong to an ecosystem that makes or breaks them.

(a 🧵 thread on this mental model)
1/ All startups live in an ecosystem where different businesses directly or indirectly support one another.

e.g in the case of the automotive industry, the ecosystem consists of car manufacturers, parts manufacturers, petrol stations, service centers, car insurance companies.
2/ All of them mutually support the entire ecosystem, which means the growth or decline of one business will directly impact all other businesses.
Read 19 tweets

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