THREAD: In 2005, the official Annual Energy Outlook saw power sector CO2 rising from 2,400 to 3,000 MMT by 2020. But actual emissions fell to 1,450 MMT, 52% below projected levels. A new @BerkeleyLab report looks at how we got “halfway to zero.” emp.lbl.gov/publications/h… 1/11
The biggest change was drastically less demand for electricity, due in part to sectoral and economic changes, but also to greater energy efficiency driven by policies and technology advancement. Instead of rising by 24% it was dead flat. 2/11
And as demand stayed flat, cheaper natural gas from the shale gas revolution combined with the rapid growth of wind and solar power to squeeze out coal. Some nuclear retirements were offset by greater output at existing plants. 3/11
Meanwhile, total consumer electricity costs were 18% lower than 2020 projections, even as prices were slightly higher. Less demand meant lower bills -- to the tune of $86 billion a year. 4/11
The “social costs” of power generation were dramatically lower. Damages to human health and the climate were 92% and 52% lower, respectively, as carbon, sulfur and nitrogen oxide emissions all fell. A total social savings of $500 billion in 2020. #halfwaytozero 5/11
The total number of jobs in electricity generation rose by 29%, as a decline in coal jobs was offset by a greater increase in renewable energy jobs.
Looking forward, #windpower and #solarenergy are likely to be the backbone of a future supply. Already 660 GW have requested transmission access, more than half of what might be required to approach a zero-carbon power-sector target. #halfwaytozero 8/11
But that much wind & solar is not trivial. Much is needed to ensure electricity delivery, reliability and resilience, build new transmission infrastructure, change planning and grid operations, revise siting processes, and focus attention on impacted workers and communities. 9/11
Most of all, how do we fill the remaining gap when the wind doesn’t blow and the sun doesn’t shine? Many things could fill the gap (long-duration storage, hydrogen, nuclear, etc.) but further RD&D is needed. #halfwaytozero 10/11
While "Past performance is no guarantee of future results,” a look back shows that big changes are possible over a 15 year span. What will the next 15 years bring, and is getting all the way to zero possible? Read the Halfway to Zero report at emp.lbl.gov/publications/h… 11/11
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The new @BerkeleyLab compilation of utility-scale #solar data and trends is out! A briefing slide deck, data file, maps, and data visualizations can all be found at utilityscalesolar.lbl.gov.
Here are some highlights → THREAD
More than 4.5 GW of utility-scale (>5 MW) solar came online in 2019, bringing cumulative capacity to 29 GW. Projects are spread across all 10 regions that we track, though more heavily concentrated in the sunniest regions. Maps and data available at utilityscalesolar.lbl.gov. 2/x
The median installed cost of new projects in 2019 fell to $1.4/W-AC, down 20% from 2018 and more than 70% from 2010. 77% of projects and 88% of capacity added in 2019 used single-axis tracking. More details in the new @BerkeleyLab data resource at utilityscalesolar.lbl.gov. 3/x
THREAD: New research from @BerkeleyLab, published in @NatureEnergyJnl, shows that policy and business model interventions can help low- and moderate-income households enjoy the benefits of rooftop #solar. Online at rdcu.be/b993z 1/x
Many states have programs to help low-income households go solar. But which create the biggest effects? Our research compares LMI incentives, leasing, and PACE finance programs. emp.lbl.gov/publications/i… 2/x
Using demographic data from solar adopters, @BerkeleyLab can parse the effects of different policies and business models. General subsidies do little to reach low-income customers, while leasing and PACE help a little. Most effective are direct LMI incentives. 3/x
THREAD ALERT! Our annual “Tracking the Sun” report on distributed #solar is out! We have price, technology and other data from 1.6 million PV systems, representing 81% of the total installed through 2018. 1/x emp.lbl.gov/tracking-the-s…