Thread by @vtchakarova

An unexpected manifestation of the pandemic is the bifurcation of the global order in a way unseen since the Cold War. It begs the question—is the world witnessing the beginning of a new bipolar era of global competition? A thread 🧵#GlobalSystem #geopolitics #RaisinaFiles

In the presence of a hegemon, there is always a process of polarisation that leads to the creation of a secondary system organised around a pole consisting of a single competitor or a group of rivals that seek to undermine the incumbent’s global power supremacy.

A global reserve currency is not possible nowadays without global power projection capabilities
that enable the US to control the interconnected flows of goods, capital, services, data, & protect trade & transport routes from disruptions that might result in major supply shocks.

Globalisation created highly interconnected networks
between Washington and Beijing, while also causing the consequent rise of China. This unintended outcome has led to China challenging US dominance in various spheres.

China is seizing the opportunity to become the first Asian global power in modern international relations. However, Beijing’s global rise will primarily be determined by the outcome of the 4th Industrial Revolution and its capability to establish own socio-econ global networks.

There are four domains that will be crucial in determining the outcome of this mutual competition—political economy, technology, international rules and ideology, and partnerships and alliances.

Realpolitik has once again become the true motor of global affairs; it is the main driver of the systemic decoupling between the US 🇺🇸 and China 🇨🇳following the shift of global power from the Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific.

But Washington 🇺🇸 is not the only one pursuing the decoupling of ‘Chimerica’; Beijing 🇨🇳 is just as keen to break up its dependence on American monetary, financial, economic, trade, diplomatic and technological networks.

The nature of #globalisation is determined by the geoeconomic and geopolitical expansion model by the nation-state that has established global dominance, much like Great Britain did in the nineteenth century and the US did at the end of the Cold War in the twentieth century.

Which country will emerge the winner from the ongoing digital revolution is yet to be seen, but the victor will surely impose its dominance on competitors and allies alike in the future.

The Cold War encompassed a competition over the systemic hierarchy of international values, norms, and rules. Similarly, the outcome of the ongoing competition between Washington and Beijing will also have an impact on the future of the global order in terms of rules, and values.

Multilateralism is at risk of becoming only a buzzword, with institutions reduced to playgrounds for diplomatic battles between competing powers. This dynamic could easily resurface, with the transatlantic community on one side, and China and Russia on the other. #Dragonbear

China 🇨🇳 & Russia 🇷🇺operate within the existent global order with the clear goal of disrupting it, dismantling its multilateral structures, and creating better conditions for their conceptualisation of multilateralism, which is strictly opposed to Western values, norms and rules.

An important structural layer of the global system consists of middle-sized powers oscillating between US & China to maximise their own gains while avoiding picking a side for as long as possible—there are neither eternal allies, nor perpetual enemies, only perpetual interests.

From a geopolitical point of view, the new great game will be predominantly situated in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean due to rising competition between the two Asian giants, China and India, in addition to the systemic rivalry between China and the US. #Dragonbear

Main hotspots & triggers for an escalation of US-China rivalry are in the South & East China Seas, Indian Ocean, Mediterranean, Caspian, & Black Sea, & the MENA. Tensions are also expected along global chokepoints for energy 6 food as well as China's Belt and Road connectivity.

China has become the main external factor in American domestic politics, but the US can only exert a limited influence on Chinese domestic affairs. International cooperation has become a function of the competition and systemic rivalry between Washington and Beijing.

The competition btw US & China is made up as much by the tech, geoeconomic & institutional decoupling as it is by the oscillating alliances of middle power countries. China has already become a 2nd pole of global power & has also begun challenging existing structures & networks.

Read the whole paper in order to find out about the optimistic and pessimistic scenario on the systemic rivalry between the US and China in the conclusion ➡️orfonline.org/research/raisi… (p. 40-52)