Some late-in-the-day thoughts on the Conservative #climate plan (I had a paper deadline today). @BrettDolter & @GK_Fellows and I are *so* close to finishing our paper on the distributional impacts of emissions pricing in Canada.
We talked about SK-specific options for revenue-recycling on Monday in an @CBCNews opinion piece cbc.ca/news/canada/sa…
Here are our estimates of carbon tax costs by income decile and by source for each province, at $50 per tonne. This includes the federal OBPS. Note: we assume no behavioural change, so this is a 'worst-case' scenario. 
Note that costs are increasing with income: higher-income households buy more. So under the federal Conservative plan, where a levy from fuel purchases goes into household savings accounts, the 'rebate' is larger for higher-income households.
Contrast that to a lump-sum rebate, like the current Climate Action Incentive Payment. Rebates differ by household composition, but not by income.
We model a lump-sum rebate similar to the current federal rebate (we have slightly different assumptions about revenue use). This figure plots net returns (rebate less costs) by income quintile and province.
With a lump-sum rebate that doesn't depend on income, lower-income households are more likely to have a rebate greater than their costs. Policy choices matter! The Conservative plan is likely to be regressive, whereas lump-sum rebates are progressive. /fin
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