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Jon Worth

16 Apr, 15 tweets, 4 min read

So where are we with #SoedervsLaschet #LaschetvsSoeder

At the beginning of the week we were supposed to know which would be CDU-CSU Chancellor Candidate by the end of the week... but we still don't know, and it's Friday

A thread to sum it up!

On Monday the CDU-Präsidium tried to bounce the CSU and Söder into conceding - by publicly throwing their weight behind Laschet

suedkurier.de/ueberregional/…

Norbert Röttgen - who lost to Laschet and Merz to become CDU party leader, but did surprisingly well, then argued that the decision ought to depend on who will do best in the election

spiegel.de/politik/deutsc…

Söder then fought back, and had the backing of the CSU leadership, and some CDU members of the Bundestag as well - basically with the message that he'd be better placed to win

tagesschau.de/inland/innenpo…

Then Hasleoff, CDU Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt, distanced himself from the idea that Laschet ought to be the candidate

rp-online.de/politik/deutsc…

Meanwhile a load more polls show a lot more Germans would prefer Söder as Chancellor to Laschet

sueddeutsche.de/politik/cdu-cs…

And as of Friday morning apparently the two of them are trying to hammer things out...

focus.de/politik/deutsc…

If this were simply about who would steer CDU-CSU towards the best election result, the outcome would be clear: they should go for Söder

But this is as much about the medium term futures of both CDU and CSU as it is who the candidate is

Were Söder to be candidate, and become Chancellor, that strengthens the CSU vis à vis the CDU - possibly for 8+ years

Were Laschet the candidate and it goes well, CDU can easily live with it

Were it to go badly, and a left wing coalition were to come to power, the CDU can ditch Laschet and position itself for a battle 4 years away (Röttgen back in the frame?)

The German press has been full of pieces about the relative merits of Laschet and Söder, and it's a mixed bag. Söder was more anti-immigration, but Laschet is more pro-coal and probably also pro-Russia.

In terms of character they're quite different: Laschet the guy who's like a mayor of a small village, jovial and a bit bumbling. Söder has more edge, speaks with more authority, but not someone you'd buy a second hand car from.

Also I expect that once a decision *is* made, it will all calm down quickly - because that's what Christian Democrats do. Hostilities and recriminations might then break out again after the 26 September election.

Last but not least the Greens will decide their Chancellor candidate on Monday. I wonder whether we're going to know the CDU-CSU candidate by then?

And to conclude, what are the odds?

My current educated guess...
Söder 60%-40% Laschet
Baerbock 90%-10% Habeck

/ends

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More from @jonworth

Jon Worth

@jonworth

13 Apr

This UK-got-it-right, EU-got-it-wrong on vaccine supply and rollout line, as espoused by Nick Clegg earlier, is overly simplistic

Here's what Clegg said:
theneweuropean.co.uk/brexit-news/eu…

This thread will attempt a more balanced view

Was the Commission handling vaccine procurement collectively the right thing to do for the EU-27?

*Absolutely*

Because it means a fair distribution of vaccines, regardless of wealth of the Member State or its own supply

Did the European Commission handle that process as well as it could have?

*Probably not*

It might have focused less on price, and more on speed of delivery. Saying that with hindsight is easier

Read 11 tweets

Jon Worth

@jonworth

12 Apr

Why there will not be a night train through the Channel Tunnel any time soon...

... explaining that the only way I can - with a diagram!

This is an attempt to give an overview as to why it'd be so damned hard to do - as opposed to the breezy optimism about it in Sunday's Observer

Don't get me wrong: trains are great, and night trains are great, but a mainland Europe to London night train is not going to happen

@rail

FYI @rail @seatsixtyone @McWhirterAlex @philrichardsuk @Koelschlenny @DavidJackmanUK for input into this. And you'll all probably say the diagram is in the end *too simple*!

/ends

Read 4 tweets

Jon Worth

@jonworth

9 Apr

2016
Remainers: Brexit will be a problem for Northern Ireland
Leavers: no it won't

2021
Remainers: Brexit is a problem for Northern Ireland
Leavers: We didn't go far enough with Brexit / the violence is not connected to Brexit / the EU imposed the NI Protocol 🤦‍♂️

@timmokx

Further excuses:

it's Remainers' fault for not backing soft brexit (via @timmokx)

NI hasn't actually had Brexit (Kate Hoey, thanks @heeney77 for the reminder)

the EU imposed a hard border with Art 16 / vaccines

@eufactsexplain

The EU used Ireland as a weapon in Brexit talks (@eufactsexplain)

*ALL* bullshit

Those who promoted Brexit, especially Johnson's Brexit: you made keeping peace in Northern Ireland one hell of a lot harder. This is ON YOU.

Read 5 tweets

Jon Worth

@jonworth

8 Apr

@davidmcallister

The European Parliament is not taking #Brexit scrutiny nearly seriously enough

You your approach is shamefully poor
@davidmcallister
@berndlange
@ManfredWeber
@CHansenEU
@KatiPiri
@NathalieLoiseau
@ph_lamberts

🇪🇺 citizens deserve better, not least those in 🇮🇪

An angry 🧵

1/25

Let's not forget that when the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement was finally sorted on 24 Dec, it was provisionally applied - allowing the EP to do its scrutiny this spring

2/25

Provisional application was extended from the initial end of February deadline until the end of April

That's 2️⃣2️⃣ days from now

3/25

Read 25 tweets

Jon Worth

@jonworth

7 Apr

The essential problem for Eurostar is UK Govt doesn't know what it *wants* from long distance international rail through the Channel Tunnel

The UK Government wants to minimise its costs, and doesn't want problems, but beyond that is *has no answers*

Does the UK believe in competition on the London-Paris/Brussels routes? And if so, what sort?

Is that people might fly instead competition enough? Or is on-rail competition also desirable?

Until COVID hit, Eurostar could afford to be more expensive than flights, because the time saved and better convenience meant people favoured the train

But is that the right answer?

Read 11 tweets

Jon Worth

@jonworth

1 Apr

A fortnight ago I wanted to answer a question: would a 🇪🇺 vaccine export ban be justified?

I was somehow instinctively against any such ban, and still am

But digging into it revealed the worst of out politics, media and social media, and how badly we cope with complexity

1/22

The essence of the issue is that this is both an ideological/ethical matter, and a practical one - and the interplay between the two is complicated

No person's response to the question ban-or-not can be based either all on ethics or all on practicality

2/22

Or - putting it another way - export of a small number of vaccines might be easier to justify than export of a massive number that would slow down the exporting region's own vaccination drive

3/22

Read 22 tweets

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