A massive haul of new RCP8.5 studies today
And the beat goes on ...
What do such studies mean for the real world?
RCP8.5 as BAU and RCP4.5 as mitigation (both improper) continues to be common, example
Such studies based on fictional worlds are used as the basis for providing reliable guidance to decision makers
RCP8.5 in 2100 is even used as the basis for climate event attribution studies in 2018
Twice a week Google Scholar emails me dozens and dozens of new RCP8.5 studies
Unwinding this mess may never be done, but if it is, it won't be an easy task
/END
PS. I'm not linking papers or naming authors here, because these issues are systemic and structural, and not simply based on choices of individual researchers. The IPCC is responsible for this community-wide failure and probably needs to take charge in helping to fix it.
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This letter from members of US Congress to Ecohealtth Alliance contains some very interesting information related to a lab leak hypothesis ... it is fair to say that authoritative investigations of a lab leak are now proceeding on multiple fronts ⤵️ republicans-energycommerce.house.gov/wp-content/upl…
Some highlights and questions:
Does anyone actually have this review?
Now bear with me... imagine a 19th/20th century alternative history with the western world female dominated & our female leaders created a modern Olympics centered on exalting female athleticism - like in gymnastics and synchronized swimming (as above), with men cheering along...
If we view the future through the lens of plausible IPCC scenarios (AR5 & SSP consistent with 2005-2020 reality & 2020-2040 near-term projections), the below shows fossil fuel CO2 emissions without application of an negative emissions technologies
One comment we have received on this analysis is that the envelope of emissions in 2100 from plausible scenarios may not actually reflect all plausible outcomes
We agree!
That is an argument (which we make) for updating IPCC scenarios & not continuing to use outdated scenarios
How we talk about disasters has changed dramatically (since ~2006)
The IPCC definition of "climate change" as a detectable change in the statistics of weather (and outcome metric) has been increasingly rejected in favor of "climate change" defined as a causal actor that changes weather
These definitions are 100% incompatible
17 years ago I wrote about how the different definitions of "climate change" used by the FCCC and IPCC was problematic for connecting science and policy sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publicat…
The increasing use of "climate" (or "climate change") as a causal actor adds to this dissonance
1⃣
First, improve the process for the WHO’s declaration of a public health emergency.
2⃣
Second, countries should agree on common standards for data collection and dissemination during a pandemic, to inform responses and enable relevant research to be undertaken.
3⃣
Third, nations should agree to establish international standards for the recommendation of vaccine and drug approval in a pandemic.
4⃣
Fourth, nations should agree on procedures for investigations of pandemic origins.