A massive haul of new RCP8.5 studies today
And the beat goes on ... Image
What do such studies mean for the real world? Image
RCP8.5 as BAU and RCP4.5 as mitigation (both improper) continues to be common, example Image
Such studies based on fictional worlds are used as the basis for providing reliable guidance to decision makers Image
RCP8.5 in 2100 is even used as the basis for climate event attribution studies in 2018 Image
Twice a week Google Scholar emails me dozens and dozens of new RCP8.5 studies
Unwinding this mess may never be done, but if it is, it won't be an easy task
/END Image
PS. I'm not linking papers or naming authors here, because these issues are systemic and structural, and not simply based on choices of individual researchers. The IPCC is responsible for this community-wide failure and probably needs to take charge in helping to fix it.

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More from @RogerPielkeJr

17 Apr
This letter from members of US Congress to Ecohealtth Alliance contains some very interesting information related to a lab leak hypothesis ... it is fair to say that authoritative investigations of a lab leak are now proceeding on multiple fronts ⤵️
republicans-energycommerce.house.gov/wp-content/upl…
Some highlights and questions:
Does anyone actually have this review? Image
Here is that framework: phe.gov/s3/dualuse/Pag… Image
Read 8 tweets
12 Apr
Motivated by @Scienceofsport 🧵

Can we agree that female physiology gives an advantage over males in women's gymnastics?

And if so can we further agree that gymnastics rules for trans athletes should thus be very different than, say, boxing?

See: doi.org/10.1080/147631…
Sports w/ female athleticism superior or equivalent to male athleticism

YES
gymnastics (F)
rhythmic gymnastics
synchronized swimming
diving
equestrian
sailing
racing (car, motorbike, horse)

MAYBE
ice skating/dancing
skiing
luge
bobsled
distance swimming
endurance running

More?
Now bear with me... imagine a 19th/20th century alternative history with the western world female dominated & our female leaders created a modern Olympics centered on exalting female athleticism - like in gymnastics and synchronized swimming (as above), with men cheering along...
Read 7 tweets
12 Apr
Lots of good comments on our newly revised preprint, keep’em coming 🙏⤵️
If we view the future through the lens of plausible IPCC scenarios (AR5 & SSP consistent with 2005-2020 reality & 2020-2040 near-term projections), the below shows fossil fuel CO2 emissions without application of an negative emissions technologies Image
One comment we have received on this analysis is that the envelope of emissions in 2100 from plausible scenarios may not actually reflect all plausible outcomes

We agree!

That is an argument (which we make) for updating IPCC scenarios & not continuing to use outdated scenarios
Read 4 tweets
9 Apr
How we talk about disasters has changed dramatically (since ~2006) Image
The IPCC definition of "climate change" as a detectable change in the statistics of weather (and outcome metric) has been increasingly rejected in favor of "climate change" defined as a causal actor that changes weather

These definitions are 100% incompatible Image
17 years ago I wrote about how the different definitions of "climate change" used by the FCCC and IPCC was problematic for connecting science and policy
sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publicat…

The increasing use of "climate" (or "climate change") as a causal actor adds to this dissonance Image
Read 6 tweets
8 Apr
🧵
Science Diplomacy and The Pandemic Treaty

Here are five important science-related issues to include in any future global pandemic treaty

rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/science-dipl…
1⃣
First, improve the process for the WHO’s declaration of a public health emergency.

2⃣
Second, countries should agree on common standards for data collection and dissemination during a pandemic, to inform responses and enable relevant research to be undertaken.
3⃣
Third, nations should agree to establish international standards for the recommendation of vaccine and drug approval in a pandemic.

4⃣
Fourth, nations should agree on procedures for investigations of pandemic origins.
Read 4 tweets
6 Apr
Recently I've had many convos w/ academic faculty about diversity

One common view is that academic excellence means denying as many students as possible an opportunity to come to our campus, called EXCLUSIVITY

That's just wrong

Academic excellence means ACCESSIBILITY for all
University EXCLUSIVITY is in practice the manufacturing of demand for access far above the ability of a campus to supply education

That supply/demand mismatch justifies high tuition rates which further supports EXCLUSIVITY

So campuses become most accessible to the wealthiest
Some campuses use high tuition to subsidize lower income students thus enhancing accessibility

This is impractical for state schools as tuition rates can never be this high

The net effect is the increasing presence of wealthiest at state schools at the expense of the poorest
Read 4 tweets

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