Thread by @DonaldWelsh16

After the startling events of yesterday, losing the plot seems to be a good place to start. Lets attempt to look through the noise and think rationally of what might be going in Ontario. Like it or not, I think it comes down to the C19 vaccination process. Lets explore. 1/

https://twitter.com/doc_turek/status/1383237643991846916

I put forth the idea that the 3rd wave narrative is largely contrived. It was designed to deflect attention from the C19 vaccination process. The problem centers around the temporary immunosuppression (approx 2 weeks) that occurs with the first shot. 2/

I've covered this idea before but will now build upon it. It is becoming increasingly clear that the first shot is associated atleast temporarily with a wave of C19 infection which can lead to hospitalization and even death. 3/

https://twitter.com/DonaldWelsh16/status/1382291307905830912?s=19

For simplicity, I have attached data (vaccination vs cases) from Ontario. 4/

And a few from other jurisdictions (vaccination vs cases/hospitalization or deaths). 5/

Additionally, this association has also been seen in nursing homes, their residents vaccinated earlier in the year. 6/

https://twitter.com/MConceptions/status/1382070005777502209?s=19

Interestingly, in Britian, this trend was buried within the broader seasonal winter surge. But if you look closer, you can see two humps in December/January. An expected rise and one I think is associated with the initial vaccination process. 7/

Remember correlation isn't causality but there is other evidence to consider, most notably, the Phase 3 trial notes of the mRNA vaccine manufacturers. C19 infections were higher in the vaccinated group for an initial 7-14 days. These people were removed from further analysis. 8/

So what is going on? I propose that the temporary immunosuppression (known to occur with vaccines) with the first shot is making people susceptible to natural infection as the virus is indeed circulating. They in turn could infect their close contacts. 9/

The irony here is that vaccine induced immunosuppression shows the public that your body's natural immunity is quite effective at combating and neutralizing C19. An inadvertent experiment. 10/

I contend that the Ontario Science table is aware of the issue and has been preparing for it by keeping hospital beds open, moving patients to LTCs and by limiting surgeries to increase ICU capacity. 11/

https://twitter.com/DonaldWelsh16/status/1382389345022263300?s=19

So why move forward? First, its a cold calculation. They have computed that a temporary rise in cases/hospitalizations and deaths will be offset by the long term benefits. I suspect the net benefit calculation is thin and highly leverage to vaccine efficacy/numbers. 12/

Second, after 13 months of fear mongering and propaganda, public health and the Ontario science panel has terrorized to portion of the public to a point of incapacitation. Mental illness is sky rocketing and the underpinnings of society are collasping. 13/

Lastly, it's clear that C19 isn't the big viral threat initially hypothesized or that NPIs are effective (other than accelerating societal decline). Other jurisdictions have adjusted their policies and adopted the GBD. Ontario has strangely doubled down. 14/

It is now clear that Ontario's public health campaign is a monumental disaster and likely the largest policy failure in history. Plenty of blame to go around but a topic for another time. 15/

Unfortunately, poor public health messaging positioned vaccines as the only solution and this has eliminated gov't policy options. No one seem to consider the process of vaccine development. This isn't a trivial and coronaviruses are notoriously tricky. 16/

I contend the province has decided to move forward despite significant vaccine related issues. This is a dodgy legal and moral landscape. Thus, its not surprising that gov't policy has become irratic and advisors look confused and disjointed. 17/

https://twitter.com/iamSas/status/1383133041892147205?s=19

Looking through the fog, recent policy actions seem pointed at further societal isolation (to minimize C19 spread) and ramping up the noise to distract the public from the trend between vaccines and cases/hospitalizations and deaths. 18/

I contend that this is poor strategy and now is the time to slow down, investigate and readjust public health policies. Our policies are badly flawed and causing great harm. These mistakes are festering and this doesn't end well for politicians or their advisors. End.