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17 Apr, 23 tweets, 8 min read
(THREAD) BREAKING NEWS:

Czech Prime Minister @AndrejBabis & VicePM/Interim For.Minister @jhamacek announced that GRU unit 29155 was "involved" in a 2014 explosion of Czech ammo depot (Vrbětice) which killed two Czech citizen.

Response: 18 Russian intelligence officers expelled.
WHAT HAPPENED: In 2014, series of explosions devastated ammo storages in Vrbětice, Eastern part of Czech Republic.

50+ ton military ammo stored by a private company (Imex Group) which rented these buildings from Czech Army.

2 civilian employees killed

cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Výbuchy_m…
DETAILS OF GRU OPERATION, AS EXPLAINED BY CZECH POLICE INVESTIGATION, @okundra reports:

On 13 October 2014, two GRU Unit 29155 officers flew by Aeroflot from Moscow to Prague. They left on 16 October 2014 to Austria and then flew back to Moscow.
Both used GRU-issued passports on fake names: Ruslan Boshirov (real name: Anatoliy Chepiga) & Alexandr Petrov (Real name: Alexander Mishkin).

Both GRU passports were later used for the Skripal poisoning operation in the UK.

SOURCE:
respekt.cz/agenda/za-vybu…
Cover story: they wanted to visit (civilian-used) ammo depot in Vrbětice.Registered with no meta data e-mail and fake passports (different than used for entering Czech territory: Chepiga as Ruslan Tabarov, Mishkin as Nikolaj Popa),stayed in small hotel in Czech city of Ostrava
Both GRU officers got entry cards for Vrbětice ammo depot for period of 13-17 October 2014. The first ammo explosion: 16 October, 09:25 AM.

Czech Police: when they visited Vrbětice ammo depot, weapons were being moved from that facility to be sold to a Bulgarian arms dealer.
These weapons were supposed to be sold to Ukrainian army. Sources say the Bulgarian was Emilian Gebrev whom the GRU tried to murder in 2015 in Sofia.

Czech Police thinks that the ammo explosions were supposed to happen outside of Czech territory, but something went wrong.
Czech Police investigation was suspended in 2015, but re-opened in 2018 after GRU officers using same fake passports tried to assassinate Sergey Skripal in the UK.

Today, Czech Police just opened search for the two GRU officials:
WHAT HAPPENED TODAY:

Czech PM Babis and VPM/FM Hamáček announced: "18 Russian intelligence (SVR + GRU) officials based as Russian diplomats on Czech territory involved in this case will be expelled within 48 hours".

They compared this to the GRU Skripal attack in 2018.
WHAT DOES IT MEAN:

This is defacto act of Russian state terrorism on a NATO soil.

Czech President currently pushes Czech government to give nuclear power plant deal to Rosatom. We expect major public pressure to exclude Rosatom now.
Now, there are 130+ Russians with diplomatic immunity on Czech soil, some 60 Czechs on Russian soil.

Remember: in 1971: UK expelled 105 Soviet intelligence officials.

We should send ALL of them home and start building diplomatic presence from zero.

europeanvalues.cz/wp-content/upl…
At about the same time, explosions took place at Bulgarian arms depos - which we hypothesized had been triggered by this same GRU unit 21955 - a total of 8 undercover agents from this unit traveled to Bulgaria in late 2014 and early 2015.

bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-eu…
Here @christogrozev (@bellingcat) says: What Czech police hasn't discovered, it appears, is that not only these two "poster boys" of the GRU - but several more members of unit 21955 - including their whole management team - came to Czechia at that same time. Details out soon.
"One important aspect: both Mishkin and Chepiga were bestowed "Hero of Russia" awards by Putin in late 2014/early 2015. We always assumed it was over their involvement in Crimea. *This* successful operation in Czhechia, however, makes it a much more likely explanation."
Former Chief of Czech General Staff (4-star General) Jiří Šedivý call this "military attack on our country".

What we already know this GRU unit did:

Seven Czech citizen used ketchup as symbolical blook against walls of the Russian Embassy in Prague.

Russian state terrorism murdered two Czech citizen in the 2014 ammo depot explosion.
BREAKING:

Czech PM @AndrejBabis just announced that the Czech government will declassify the (BIS) counterintelligence report on this Vrbětice GRU attack.

It should happen on Monday after the Czech government approves this move.

lidovky.cz/domov/babis-vl…
UPDATE: Czech journalist @lukas_prchal (@enkocz) reports:

For the Vrbětice 2014 attack, the two GRU officers were accompanied by another officer from the same unit, two high Czech security sources confirm.

denikn.cz/606545/v-cesku…
STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT:

Czech VPM/Trade Minister @KarelHavlicek_ says that Rosatom will be excluded from the nuclear tender.

This is the most important geopolitical decision of the Czech Republic for decades to come.
Czech Republic will inform NATO allies at the Tuesday meeting of the North Atlantic Council.
Just wow:

Chairman of UK Commons Foreign Affairs Committee says NATO countries should collectively expell Russian ambassadors.

seznamzpravy.cz/clanek/sef-zah…
After Czech Republic expelled 18 Russian intelligence officers hiding under diplomatic cover, Russia sent home 20 Czech diplomats from Russia, including Czech Deputy Ambassador. They are to leave Moscow by Monday night.

= another Russian escalation, next steps will follow.

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WHY EUROPE LOSES TO RUSSIA AND CHINA:

Let us have a look to what led to the complete failure of @JosepBorrellF who was completely humiliated in Moscow. It is a strategic problem, not just ad hoc screw-up.
Usually, large EU countries select weak High Representatives for Foreign and Security Policy (HiRep) so that HIReps serve as their tools, not as strong players.

So they chose @JosepBorrellF with no real Europe-wide executive track record.
October 2019: With dozens of European security experts, we voiced our fears that @JosepBorrellF will be a weak EU foreign policy chief:

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(THREAD) GRU GOT BUSTED IN PRAGUE:

HOW A JOINT COUNTER-INTELLIGENCE OPERATION CAUGHT GRU RED-HANDED:

New details of Russian military intelligence (GRU) operation in the Czech Republic are out thanks to @okundra & @spurny2 (Czech weekly magazine @RESPEKT_CZ):
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Just in 2020, China has broken multiple international treaties it has signed up for. It became a rough actor which cannot be trusted.

Just in 2020, we have seen China blackmailing individual EU member states (Germany, Czech Republic, Sweden, others).
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(Thread) WHY WE CANNOT TRUST ZOOM FOR PRIVATE CALLS

Many people use Zoom for public events, which is fine.

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9 Nov 20
THREAD:

Which Trump era policies should Biden keep on countering Chinese hostile behavior?

I spoke to good friends who served in the Trump administration as career professionals on China policy. Here is what they think:
- what Trump admin really did on China is to impose costs for its hostile actions and China did not really escalate = its possible to raise the costs for China and it will back down once it feels a hard response (in sense of though sanctions and trade restrictions)
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With Trump losing, let me spell out the Trump administration policies which Europe needs the Biden team to keep.

Change rhetorics, not most of the policies.

Let me run you though them:
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2) U.S. need to be tough on Russia as long as Russia is aggressive. No Obama-era style naive reset. The Kremlin responds only to power and toughness. No appeasement ever works with dictators. Keep moving U.S. troops to Poland. Keep raising funding for U.S. European defense ops.
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