Czech Prime Minister @AndrejBabis & VicePM/Interim For.Minister @jhamacek announced that GRU unit 29155 was "involved" in a 2014 explosion of Czech ammo depot (Vrbětice) which killed two Czech citizen.
DETAILS OF GRU OPERATION, AS EXPLAINED BY CZECH POLICE INVESTIGATION, @okundra reports:
On 13 October 2014, two GRU Unit 29155 officers flew by Aeroflot from Moscow to Prague. They left on 16 October 2014 to Austria and then flew back to Moscow.
Both used GRU-issued passports on fake names: Ruslan Boshirov (real name: Anatoliy Chepiga) & Alexandr Petrov (Real name: Alexander Mishkin).
Both GRU passports were later used for the Skripal poisoning operation in the UK.
Cover story: they wanted to visit (civilian-used) ammo depot in Vrbětice.Registered with no meta data e-mail and fake passports (different than used for entering Czech territory: Chepiga as Ruslan Tabarov, Mishkin as Nikolaj Popa),stayed in small hotel in Czech city of Ostrava
Both GRU officers got entry cards for Vrbětice ammo depot for period of 13-17 October 2014. The first ammo explosion: 16 October, 09:25 AM.
Czech Police: when they visited Vrbětice ammo depot, weapons were being moved from that facility to be sold to a Bulgarian arms dealer.
These weapons were supposed to be sold to Ukrainian army. Sources say the Bulgarian was Emilian Gebrev whom the GRU tried to murder in 2015 in Sofia.
Czech Police thinks that the ammo explosions were supposed to happen outside of Czech territory, but something went wrong.
Czech Police investigation was suspended in 2015, but re-opened in 2018 after GRU officers using same fake passports tried to assassinate Sergey Skripal in the UK.
Today, Czech Police just opened search for the two GRU officials:
Czech PM Babis and VPM/FM Hamáček announced: "18 Russian intelligence (SVR + GRU) officials based as Russian diplomats on Czech territory involved in this case will be expelled within 48 hours".
They compared this to the GRU Skripal attack in 2018.
WHAT DOES IT MEAN:
This is defacto act of Russian state terrorism on a NATO soil.
Czech President currently pushes Czech government to give nuclear power plant deal to Rosatom. We expect major public pressure to exclude Rosatom now.
Now, there are 130+ Russians with diplomatic immunity on Czech soil, some 60 Czechs on Russian soil.
Remember: in 1971: UK expelled 105 Soviet intelligence officials.
We should send ALL of them home and start building diplomatic presence from zero.
At about the same time, explosions took place at Bulgarian arms depos - which we hypothesized had been triggered by this same GRU unit 21955 - a total of 8 undercover agents from this unit traveled to Bulgaria in late 2014 and early 2015.
Here @christogrozev (@bellingcat) says: What Czech police hasn't discovered, it appears, is that not only these two "poster boys" of the GRU - but several more members of unit 21955 - including their whole management team - came to Czechia at that same time. Details out soon.
"One important aspect: both Mishkin and Chepiga were bestowed "Hero of Russia" awards by Putin in late 2014/early 2015. We always assumed it was over their involvement in Crimea. *This* successful operation in Czhechia, however, makes it a much more likely explanation."
Former Chief of Czech General Staff (4-star General) Jiří Šedivý call this "military attack on our country".
After Czech Republic expelled 18 Russian intelligence officers hiding under diplomatic cover, Russia sent home 20 Czech diplomats from Russia, including Czech Deputy Ambassador. They are to leave Moscow by Monday night.
= another Russian escalation, next steps will follow.
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Let us have a look to what led to the complete failure of @JosepBorrellF who was completely humiliated in Moscow. It is a strategic problem, not just ad hoc screw-up.
Usually, large EU countries select weak High Representatives for Foreign and Security Policy (HiRep) so that HIReps serve as their tools, not as strong players.
So they chose @JosepBorrellF with no real Europe-wide executive track record.
October 2019: With dozens of European security experts, we voiced our fears that @JosepBorrellF will be a weak EU foreign policy chief:
HOW A JOINT COUNTER-INTELLIGENCE OPERATION CAUGHT GRU RED-HANDED:
New details of Russian military intelligence (GRU) operation in the Czech Republic are out thanks to @okundra & @spurny2 (Czech weekly magazine @RESPEKT_CZ):
- (Russian) Assistant Military Attache to Prague Dmitrij Bondarenko cultivated a Czech arms leader. Since 2018, Bondarenko developed a clandestine arms deal with him.
- In January 2019, Bondarenko was replaced by another GRU officer Jevgrenij Sergejevic Borisenko in Prague.
- Borisenko kept meeting the Czech arms dealer on monthly basis, discussing “the order (or specific weapons and ammo)”.
- Czech police tracked and arrested a gang of Czech weapons dealers in late May 2020, including this Czech arms dealer - the contact of GRU.
(Thread) EU leaders are making a strategic mistake for the whole Europe by trying to finalise the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) now.
Let me explain why this mistake will have deep geopolitical implications. It is greed over geopolitical wisdom:
ANGLE #1: TRUST
Just in 2020, China has broken multiple international treaties it has signed up for. It became a rough actor which cannot be trusted.
Just in 2020, we have seen China blackmailing individual EU member states (Germany, Czech Republic, Sweden, others).
Moreover: China openly strategically blackmails Australia, our fellow democracy.
Therefore, we cannot trust what China promises, we need to have hard tools to force it to obey the rules it signed up for. Without this, it is a strategic defeat for the EU.
(Thread) WHY WE CANNOT TRUST ZOOM FOR PRIVATE CALLS
Many people use Zoom for public events, which is fine.
The problem is that often Zoom, is used for private calls. Many security professionals do not trust it for following reasons:
The main problem is that Zoom has much of its business in mainland China, so under effective control of the largest and most technologically sophisticated totalitarian regime of today.
1) In the past, data of Western Zoom users were transferred via Zoom servers in China. Zoom claims it will not happen again. But: Zoom in China is under direct control of Chinese laws which force it to cooperate with Chinese intelligence agencies and be silent about it.
Which Trump era policies should Biden keep on countering Chinese hostile behavior?
I spoke to good friends who served in the Trump administration as career professionals on China policy. Here is what they think:
- what Trump admin really did on China is to impose costs for its hostile actions and China did not really escalate = its possible to raise the costs for China and it will back down once it feels a hard response (in sense of though sanctions and trade restrictions)
- Trump administration cost imposition strategy had two potential outcomes: either it persuades Beijing to rein in bad behavior.
- Or if not, we highlight for the world China’s bad behavior and take steps to protect ourselves and diversify away from dangerous dependence.
With Trump losing, let me spell out the Trump administration policies which Europe needs the Biden team to keep.
Change rhetorics, not most of the policies.
Let me run you though them:
1) U.S. need to keep being tough on China and Chinese hostile activities in Europe. We need to team up on this, be better allies on this global threat. Keep the pressure on Huawei and other Chinese espionage entities, keep them out of 5G networks.
2) U.S. need to be tough on Russia as long as Russia is aggressive. No Obama-era style naive reset. The Kremlin responds only to power and toughness. No appeasement ever works with dictators. Keep moving U.S. troops to Poland. Keep raising funding for U.S. European defense ops.