I've been asked why I'm commenting on the CDU-CSU Söder-Laschet thing, rather than the Grüne chancellor candidate issue
I have said a few things about the Grüne issue, but it's much simpler and less controversial
The Grüne have a joint leadership - Habeck and Baerbock - but there can be only one Chancellor
The two of them will decide which one of them it will be, and it will be announced tomorrow
My money is on it being Baerbock, chances 90% to 10% I reckon
And if it is Baerbock, the amount of fuss about it within the party will be really minimal. If it's Habeck there will be more of a problem, but even then it can be overcome
In short: the Grüne are handling this well, so it's not a media saga
CDU-CSU are not handling this well, so it has become a saga
That's all
(For the record: I am a member of the Grüne, understand how the party works internally, but I have no leaks or information here - I am just applying logic to this, and drawing a conclusion)
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Turn your head away from some silly argument in a pub between a politician and a landlord in Bath for a moment
Today is *really important* for German politics as it will help determine Merkel's successor
So listen up...
It concerns these 3
A 🧵
Germany has a federal election on 26th September
Merkel is leaving the political scene. She is no longer going to be Chancellor...
Who's going to replace her?
🇩🇪 has a proportional election system. Chances of any party getting >50% of the seats are close to zero... But the party with the most seats after the election normally chooses who the Chancellor is
1. Is there any likely situation where no 2 party coalition would work?
2. If the GRÜNE were the largest party would GRÜNE-CDU/CSU be tried rather than Green-Red-Red?
On 1. I suppose CDU/CSU, GRÜNE and SPD all getting 20-23%, AfD 15, Linke and FDP 10 each, others 5 is not impossible, but is pretty unlikely...
On 2. if the GRÜNE did well enough to be the largest party, that’d mean Green-Red-Red would work, that’d surely be easier to do than a coalition with CDU as junior partner?
At the beginning of the week we were supposed to know which would be CDU-CSU Chancellor Candidate by the end of the week... but we still don't know, and it's Friday
A thread to sum it up!
On Monday the CDU-Präsidium tried to bounce the CSU and Söder into conceding - by publicly throwing their weight behind Laschet
Norbert Röttgen - who lost to Laschet and Merz to become CDU party leader, but did surprisingly well, then argued that the decision ought to depend on who will do best in the election
2016
Remainers: Brexit will be a problem for Northern Ireland
Leavers: no it won't
2021
Remainers: Brexit is a problem for Northern Ireland
Leavers: We didn't go far enough with Brexit / the violence is not connected to Brexit / the EU imposed the NI Protocol 🤦♂️
Further excuses:
it's Remainers' fault for not backing soft brexit (via @timmokx)
NI hasn't actually had Brexit (Kate Hoey, thanks @heeney77 for the reminder)
the EU imposed a hard border with Art 16 / vaccines
The EU used Ireland as a weapon in Brexit talks (@eufactsexplain)
*ALL* bullshit
Those who promoted Brexit, especially Johnson's Brexit: you made keeping peace in Northern Ireland one hell of a lot harder. This is ON YOU.