Thread by @jonworth

Hey Brits!

Turn your head away from some silly argument in a pub between a politician and a landlord in Bath for a moment

Today is *really important* for German politics as it will help determine Merkel's successor

So listen up...

It concerns these 3

A 🧵

Germany has a federal election on 26th September

Merkel is leaving the political scene. She is no longer going to be Chancellor...

Who's going to replace her?

🇩🇪 has a proportional election system. Chances of any party getting >50% of the seats are close to zero... But the party with the most seats after the election normally chooses who the Chancellor is

There are 2 (possibly 3) parties that could be...

The Greens (Grüne) are currently in second place in the opinion polls, at somewhere between 20 and 23%

And this morning they chose their candidate - Annalena Baerbock

The process was professional, smooth and painless, and co-leader Robert Habeck was fine with this too

The Christian Democrats (polling +/- 27%) are currently tearing themselves apart about their choice, and *might* choose this evening which of these two to go for - Armin Laschet (l) or Markus Söder (r)

There are 2 Christian Democrat Parties - the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) that runs in 15 of 16 German states, and the Christian Social Union (CSU) that runs in Bavaria only

CDU and CSU choose a Chancellor Candidate jointly

Both Laschet and Söder want it

Laschet is the son of a coal miner from Aachen in Nordrhein-Westfalen, and he's the Prime Minister of that State (think Düsseldorf, Köln, the Ruhr) - he actually exceeded expectations there in 2017, but now looks weak in the eyes of the population

He's Party Leader of the CDU

Söder is the Prime Minister of Bavaria (think Munich and BMWs) and he underperformed there in a 2018 election, but now looks like a winner in the eyes of the population

He's Party Leader of the CSU

What's going to happen?

Reading what's happening in this saga is no easy task, but it looks at the moment that Söder is the narrow favourite to win the nomination - because he's more popular in the wider population than Laschet is

To complete the picture, a passing mention for the Social Democrats (SPD), currently polling 3rd on +/- 17%

Their Chancellor Candidate Olaf Scholz is a long shot for the top job

But hang on, I hear you saying - how could the party in third, a full 10% behind CDU-CSU, find a way to power?

That depends on what coalition Germany ends up with...

Most likely is ⚫️🟢 (from the party's colours) - CDU-CSU and the Greens

That means Laschet or Söder as Chancellor and Greens with major ministerial jobs - foreign minister and finance minister probably

The reverse - 🟢⚫️ - is possible, where the Greens out-poll the Christian Democrats, with Baerbock as Chancellor

Greens overtaking CDU-CSU is not impossible, but is still odds against

But that's not all

What about coalitions without the Christian Democrats in them?

There are two options:
🟢🔴🔴 (Greens, SPD, The Left)
🟢🔴🟡 (Greens, SPD, Free Democrats (liberals))

Baerbock as Chancellor with these

The Greens would have the best chance to lead any three party coalition, but it is not completely impossible to imagine that the SPD could overtake the Greens and get into a position for 🔴🟢🔴 instead of 🟢🔴🔴 - and Scholz becomes Chancellor

And also for those of you still keeping up... 🟢 features in *all* of these coalition options

So there you go... today's party politics in Germany summed up in a thread.

Any questions about any of this? Do ask! Happy to explain any of this... and I have time on my hands as it might take some hours before we have white smoke from the CDU-CSU!

/ends