Jon Worth Profile picture
19 Apr, 17 tweets, 5 min read
Hey Brits!

Turn your head away from some silly argument in a pub between a politician and a landlord in Bath for a moment

Today is *really important* for German politics as it will help determine Merkel's successor

So listen up...

It concerns these 3

A 🧵 ImageImageImage
Germany has a federal election on 26th September

Merkel is leaving the political scene. She is no longer going to be Chancellor... Image
Who's going to replace her?

🇩🇪 has a proportional election system. Chances of any party getting >50% of the seats are close to zero... But the party with the most seats after the election normally chooses who the Chancellor is

There are 2 (possibly 3) parties that could be...
The Greens (Grüne) are currently in second place in the opinion polls, at somewhere between 20 and 23%

And this morning they chose their candidate - Annalena Baerbock

The process was professional, smooth and painless, and co-leader Robert Habeck was fine with this too Image
The Christian Democrats (polling +/- 27%) are currently tearing themselves apart about their choice, and *might* choose this evening which of these two to go for - Armin Laschet (l) or Markus Söder (r) Image
There are 2 Christian Democrat Parties - the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) that runs in 15 of 16 German states, and the Christian Social Union (CSU) that runs in Bavaria only

CDU and CSU choose a Chancellor Candidate jointly

Both Laschet and Söder want it
Laschet is the son of a coal miner from Aachen in Nordrhein-Westfalen, and he's the Prime Minister of that State (think Düsseldorf, Köln, the Ruhr) - he actually exceeded expectations there in 2017, but now looks weak in the eyes of the population

He's Party Leader of the CDU Image
Söder is the Prime Minister of Bavaria (think Munich and BMWs) and he underperformed there in a 2018 election, but now looks like a winner in the eyes of the population

He's Party Leader of the CSU Image
What's going to happen?

Reading what's happening in this saga is no easy task, but it looks at the moment that Söder is the narrow favourite to win the nomination - because he's more popular in the wider population than Laschet is
To complete the picture, a passing mention for the Social Democrats (SPD), currently polling 3rd on +/- 17%

Their Chancellor Candidate Olaf Scholz is a long shot for the top job Image
But hang on, I hear you saying - how could the party in third, a full 10% behind CDU-CSU, find a way to power?

That depends on what coalition Germany ends up with...
Most likely is ⚫️🟢 (from the party's colours) - CDU-CSU and the Greens

That means Laschet or Söder as Chancellor and Greens with major ministerial jobs - foreign minister and finance minister probably
The reverse - 🟢⚫️ - is possible, where the Greens out-poll the Christian Democrats, with Baerbock as Chancellor

Greens overtaking CDU-CSU is not impossible, but is still odds against
But that's not all

What about coalitions without the Christian Democrats in them?

There are two options:
🟢🔴🔴 (Greens, SPD, The Left)
🟢🔴🟡 (Greens, SPD, Free Democrats (liberals))

Baerbock as Chancellor with these
The Greens would have the best chance to lead any three party coalition, but it is not completely impossible to imagine that the SPD could overtake the Greens and get into a position for 🔴🟢🔴 instead of 🟢🔴🔴 - and Scholz becomes Chancellor
And also for those of you still keeping up... 🟢 features in *all* of these coalition options
So there you go... today's party politics in Germany summed up in a thread.

Any questions about any of this? Do ask! Happy to explain any of this... and I have time on my hands as it might take some hours before we have white smoke from the CDU-CSU!

/ends

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Jon Worth

Jon Worth Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @jonworth

18 Apr
Two nerdy German coalition questions...

1. Is there any likely situation where no 2 party coalition would work?

2. If the GRÜNE were the largest party would GRÜNE-CDU/CSU be tried rather than Green-Red-Red?
On 1. I suppose CDU/CSU, GRÜNE and SPD all getting 20-23%, AfD 15, Linke and FDP 10 each, others 5 is not impossible, but is pretty unlikely...
On 2. if the GRÜNE did well enough to be the largest party, that’d mean Green-Red-Red would work, that’d surely be easier to do than a coalition with CDU as junior partner?
Read 5 tweets
18 Apr
I've been asked why I'm commenting on the CDU-CSU Söder-Laschet thing, rather than the Grüne chancellor candidate issue

I have said a few things about the Grüne issue, but it's much simpler and less controversial
The Grüne have a joint leadership - Habeck and Baerbock - but there can be only one Chancellor

The two of them will decide which one of them it will be, and it will be announced tomorrow
My money is on it being Baerbock, chances 90% to 10% I reckon

And if it is Baerbock, the amount of fuss about it within the party will be really minimal. If it's Habeck there will be more of a problem, but even then it can be overcome
Read 5 tweets
16 Apr
So where are we with #SoedervsLaschet #LaschetvsSoeder

At the beginning of the week we were supposed to know which would be CDU-CSU Chancellor Candidate by the end of the week... but we still don't know, and it's Friday

A thread to sum it up!
On Monday the CDU-Präsidium tried to bounce the CSU and Söder into conceding - by publicly throwing their weight behind Laschet

suedkurier.de/ueberregional/…
Norbert Röttgen - who lost to Laschet and Merz to become CDU party leader, but did surprisingly well, then argued that the decision ought to depend on who will do best in the election

spiegel.de/politik/deutsc…
Read 15 tweets
13 Apr
This UK-got-it-right, EU-got-it-wrong on vaccine supply and rollout line, as espoused by Nick Clegg earlier, is overly simplistic

Here's what Clegg said:
theneweuropean.co.uk/brexit-news/eu…

This thread will attempt a more balanced view
Was the Commission handling vaccine procurement collectively the right thing to do for the EU-27?

*Absolutely*

Because it means a fair distribution of vaccines, regardless of wealth of the Member State or its own supply
Did the European Commission handle that process as well as it could have?

*Probably not*

It might have focused less on price, and more on speed of delivery. Saying that with hindsight is easier
Read 11 tweets
12 Apr
Why there will not be a night train through the Channel Tunnel any time soon...

... explaining that the only way I can - with a diagram!
This is an attempt to give an overview as to why it'd be so damned hard to do - as opposed to the breezy optimism about it in Sunday's Observer

Don't get me wrong: trains are great, and night trains are great, but a mainland Europe to London night train is not going to happen
FYI @rail @seatsixtyone @McWhirterAlex @philrichardsuk @Koelschlenny @DavidJackmanUK for input into this. And you'll all probably say the diagram is in the end *too simple*!

/ends
Read 4 tweets
9 Apr
2016
Remainers: Brexit will be a problem for Northern Ireland
Leavers: no it won't

2021
Remainers: Brexit is a problem for Northern Ireland
Leavers: We didn't go far enough with Brexit / the violence is not connected to Brexit / the EU imposed the NI Protocol 🤦‍♂️
Further excuses:

it's Remainers' fault for not backing soft brexit (via @timmokx)

NI hasn't actually had Brexit (Kate Hoey, thanks @heeney77 for the reminder)

the EU imposed a hard border with Art 16 / vaccines
The EU used Ireland as a weapon in Brexit talks (@eufactsexplain)

*ALL* bullshit

Those who promoted Brexit, especially Johnson's Brexit: you made keeping peace in Northern Ireland one hell of a lot harder. This is ON YOU.
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!