Its another Monday and your weekly reminder you are living through the largest social policy blunder in Canadian history.

But good news, the political class now recognizes this and is actively working to shift the blame.

Lets consider the antics.... 1/
We have on the one hand, Doug Ford and his cabinet who are in full hibernation mode, hoping it all blows over. His caucus is counting the days till they can retire with full pension.....2/
On the other, we have the federal liberals, who initiated this debacle, and are surveying the landscape to see where the next load of virtue signaling can be dropped. The prime minister's hair is combed and Minister Freeland has bought new t-shirts and shoes to match....3/
But don't forget Andrea Howarth, Erin O'toole and Jasmit Singh. Like I said, don't forget them. Does anyone know who these people are and where they can be found? A missing person's report is about to be filed.....4/
Thus is the sorry state of Canada's C19 response. Its been pretty much over for months except for a few hot spots in TO which everyone agrees can be solved by sealing the borders with Manitoba.....5/
It's of course hilarious funny if you don't have to live it. But this is what happens when virtue signaling replaces policy, tribalism trumps the common good, and politics is singularly focused on winning. End.

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More from @DonaldWelsh16

21 Apr
For a year, many have publicly warned our blinkered public health officials not to mix politics, fear and vaccine development. Yet they did and now, that lack of critical thinking has left Canada with a Faustian bargain. 1/
That bargain involves deploying rushed vaccines, knowing to increase short term illness, hospitalization and death in a fraction of people, for attainment of longer term herd protection. 2/
You can see this bargain play out in Canadian data. First we have this beautiful graph showing the strong relationship between vaccination and cases. Fortuitously, the coupling to death is weaker. 3/ Image
Read 12 tweets
20 Apr
One positive aspect of Canada's bungled C19 response has been the number of academic, govt and private sector economists/analysts who have reach out. Steeped in rigorous quantitative analysis, many couldn't square the data with public health rhetoric...1/
In the early months, this conversation was one side, with me explaining biological concepts and placing them in context with data graphs. This relationship has flipped as its clear the C19 response is one of economics and politics.....2/
My education in economics was markedly enhanced yesterday as I listened to my new found colleagues dismantle the federal budget and make comparisons to the 1990s. One went so far as to contact a real estate agent, to put his house up for sale.....3/
Read 4 tweets
17 Apr
After the startling events of yesterday, losing the plot seems to be a good place to start. Lets attempt to look through the noise and think rationally of what might be going in Ontario. Like it or not, I think it comes down to the C19 vaccination process. Lets explore. 1/
I put forth the idea that the 3rd wave narrative is largely contrived. It was designed to deflect attention from the C19 vaccination process. The problem centers around the temporary immunosuppression (approx 2 weeks) that occurs with the first shot. 2/
I've covered this idea before but will now build upon it. It is becoming increasingly clear that the first shot is associated atleast temporarily with a wave of C19 infection which can lead to hospitalization and even death. 3/

Read 19 tweets
14 Apr
The shuttering of schools and shuffling of children to an online experience is traumatic and woefully inadequate. Ontario public health and gov't hasn't explained why. I will put forward a hypothesis for consideration. 1/
Simply put, Ontario public health made 4 key mistakes 13 months ago. The include 1) viral threat inflation, 2) use of coercive messaging, 2) proclaiming vaccines as a solution; and 3) NPIs as effective. All were wrong. 2/
This poor intellectual foundation has driven policy failure after policy failure. I assume health officials, epidemiologists and politicians are now painfully aware of the disaster as the harms aren't trivial. 3/
Read 15 tweets
12 Apr
Its monday morning again and your weekly reminder that you are in the midst of the largest social policy disaster in Canadian history.

Its a catastrophic failure across the entire governmental landscape. 1/
It's hard, inside a bubble, to see the magnitude of the failure. But consider the following.

Fiscal/monetary

1) 500 billion of direct gov't spending that we know of.

2) Billions of governmental loans that will never be repaid. Details still emerging.

2/
3) 500 billion in money printing to support capital and bond markets.

4) Compromised fiscal control at the federal treasury. First world pillage and looting.

5) Tens of thousands of bankrupted businesses.

6) Personal insolvency at record levels approaching 60 percent.

3/
Read 8 tweets
11 Apr
Listen to three beautiful minds illuminate epidemiological principles as they apply to C19. Clear, crisp thoughts and infinite patience. Truth is folks, Canada did everything wrong and I mean everything. 1/
Dr. Kuldorff was prescient in saying the C19 response has done immeasurable, long term damage to public health. Trust has disappeared and he isn't sure how it can be restored. 2/
Canada is experiencing a broad systematic failure within public health, from schooling to policy implementation. This community will have to be stripped bare and everything must be restructured to serve the needs of a 21st century society. 3/
Read 4 tweets

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