Thread by @DonaldWelsh16

For a year, many have publicly warned our blinkered public health officials not to mix politics, fear and vaccine development. Yet they did and now, that lack of critical thinking has left Canada with a Faustian bargain. 1/

That bargain involves deploying rushed vaccines, knowing to increase short term illness, hospitalization and death in a fraction of people, for attainment of longer term herd protection. 2/

You can see this bargain play out in Canadian data. First we have this beautiful graph showing the strong relationship between vaccination and cases. Fortuitously, the coupling to death is weaker. 3/

Arguably, corelation isn't causality but one can address this concern by taking aggregate data and breaking it down by province, each in a different geographical/climatic zone. Notice the uniqueness of each region until ~3 weeks ago (from @ClareCraigPath) 4/

The alignment coincidences with vaccine deployment and its difficult to rationalize another explanation. Consequently, the relationship seems more causative than corelative at this point. 5/

As previously stated, it's fortune that case rise only slightly translates to death. Vaccine deployment and cases do seem to be driving a rise in ICU numbers (@jamft). Canada's so called 3rd wave. 6/

What is mechanically driving the rise in ICU usage is unclear, its certainly not bad public behavior. That is a deceitful contrivance used by our public health officials to deflect attention. 7/

Explanations vary and include:

1) Vaccines induced immunosuppression making recipients susceptible to natural infection, along with their close contacts.

2) Vaccines reactivating dormant C19 virus, perhaps in macrophages, inducing re-infection.

8/

3) Vaccine induced immunosuppression allowing for remergence of other viral and bacterial infections like pneumonia.

Truth is we don't have enough information to know and public health has shown no interest in addressing the issue.

9/

This problem isn't Canada specific. We see it everywhere, the most obviously in India where a huge case spike is evident with vaccine roll out. I suspect this and not variants is the reason Brian Lilley (Toronto Sun) wants to ban flights. 10/

https://twitter.com/brianlilley/status/1384600591549280256?s=19

It seems to me our public health officials are aware of the problem but are determined not to discuss it. Indeed, they seem to have gone to some lengths to hide it, by concocting the easily debunked 3rd wave narrative. 11/

I do understand their motives but I have no sympathy. For 13 months, they deployed deceitful and patently dishonest rhetoric, unwittingly walking Canada into this Faustian bargin. I doubt their careers survive the ensuing public inquiries. End.