The @IEA is out early with projected energy & CO₂ emissions for 2021:
Energy:
2020: ⬇️ ~4%
2021: ⬆️ 4.6%, 0.5% above 2019 levels (full rebound)
Global fossil energy CO₂ emissions:
2020: ⬇️ 5.8%, or ~2GtCO₂
2021: ⬆️ 4.8%, or ~1.5GtCO₂
Everyone wanted back to normal🤔
1/
Energy:
2020: ⬇️ ~4%
2021: ⬆️ 4.6%, 0.5% above 2019 levels (full rebound)
Global fossil energy CO₂ emissions:
2020: ⬇️ 5.8%, or ~2GtCO₂
2021: ⬆️ 4.8%, or ~1.5GtCO₂
Everyone wanted back to normal🤔
1/
My guestimate was 3.5% as of April 2021, so quite some lower.
My method is very aggregated, based on GDP & historical trends in CO₂/GDP. I would trust the IEA much more with disaggregated approaches... Or?
2/
My method is very aggregated, based on GDP & historical trends in CO₂/GDP. I would trust the IEA much more with disaggregated approaches... Or?
2/
Projections change over time. This is the projection I made in January, it was for 3% growth (not 3.5%). The difference? @IMFNews increased their projected GDP growth.
3/
3/
The @gcarbonproject has been making these projections for years. Most important is to evaluate how the projections performed.
There are uncertainties. These are projections. A projection in April is harder, as there is still 8 months in the year...
essd.copernicus.org/articles/12/32…
/end
There are uncertainties. These are projections. A projection in April is harder, as there is still 8 months in the year...
essd.copernicus.org/articles/12/32…
/end
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
