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Jerry Capital

@JerryCap

22 Apr

@Kap_Attack_

The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity

h/t @Kap_Attack_ for a fantastic must read book recommendation

"The following pages are in fact the result of a constructive effort to detect, know and thus possibly neutralize one of the most powerful, dark forces which hinder the growth of human welfare and happiness"

First Law: Always and inevitably everyone underestimates the number of stupid individuals in circulation.

Read 19 tweets

Jerry Capital

@JerryCap

26 Jan

@nntaleb

My Notes on Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails

Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Applications

By @nntaleb

"Insurance can only work in Mediocristan; you should never write an uncapped insurance contract if there is risk of catastrophe. The point is called the catastrophe principle."

"{thick tailed}, extreme events away from the centre of the distribution play a very large role. Black Swans are not "more frequent", they are more consequential. The fattest tail distribution has just one very large extreme deviation, rather than many departures from the norm"

Read 25 tweets

Jerry Capital

@JerryCap

24 Nov 20

1) I am as conservative as anyone on a clean balance sheet but does $TDG suggest $HEI is just way way too underlevered?

2) Is this too backward looking?Monetary policy (or anything really) doesn't have to play out the way it did in March in the next crisis (did $TDG raise debt post-Fed support?).

3) What are the biggest differences between business models/revenue splits that allow $TDG to carry so much more debt.

Read 4 tweets

Jerry Capital

@JerryCap

23 Nov 20

@drjasonfung

I just finished "The Cancer Code" by Jason Fung (@drjasonfung) easily the best book I've read this year.

Highly recommend.

Telomeres, Telomere cap, Hayflick limit

Atomic bomb survivor cancer rates increased only modestly, with "life expectancy shortened by months, not years".

Chronic exposure is what matters.

Read 14 tweets

Jerry Capital

@JerryCap

9 May 20

1) $CSU Annual General Meeting Highlights

“It's a lot more fun to be providing utilities with software right now than providing gyms with software"

2) Everybody is working from home and watching $NFLX

3) “Took action prior to the shutdown… Surprised at how well its gone which leads to questions of how many office we need to leave open”

Read 15 tweets

Jerry Capital

@JerryCap

5 Feb 20

$ANGI

"A successful marketplace captures market share not only from incumbents, but creates incremental demand as the simple and reliable experience lure buyers who otherwise might not transact."

$ANGI

"The 150 categories we’ve unlocked to date represent about $50 billion of our current addressable market (*$400 billion TAM*), all of which can now flow through our platform and our earnings."

$ANGI

"There is a whole other category of projects that are sort of medium priced projects that covers about $150 billion in TAM that we’re in the early stages of experimenting with."

Read 5 tweets

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