h/t @Kap_Attack_ for a fantastic must read book recommendation
"The following pages are in fact the result of a constructive effort to detect, know and thus possibly neutralize one of the most powerful, dark forces which hinder the growth of human welfare and happiness"
First Law: Always and inevitably everyone underestimates the number of stupid individuals in circulation.
First Law Explained:
σ
Second Law: The probability that a certain person be stupid is independent of any other characteristic of that person.
Second Law Explained
🚨 TECHNICAL INTERLUDE 🚨
Figure #1!
Each one of us has a current balance with everybody else. From action or inaction each one of us derives a gain or a loss and at the same time one causes a gain or a loss to someone else. Gains and losses can be conveniently charted on a graph.
Third ( 🪙 Golden 🪙 ) Law
A stupid person is a person who causes losses to another person or to a group of persons while himself deriving no gain and even possibly incurring losses
Third ( 🪙 Golden 🪙 ) Law Explained
Four Basic Categories
H = Helpless
I = Intelligent
B = Bandit
S = Stupid
🚨 TECHNICAL INTERLUDE 🚨
Figure #2!
The Bandit gains something from harming you, the more they gain the closer they are to intelligent (above line M), the less they gain the closer they are to stupid (below line M). Think of a general who causes vast destruction and casualties in return for a promotion or medal.
Bandit vs. Stupid vs. Super-Stupid:
The majority of stupid people are basically and unwaveringly stupid... Stupid people cause harm to you and gain nothing themselves, but there is a next level... a *super-stupid* person, who causes harm to you AND harm to themsleves.
Stupidity and Power:
The Question that reasonable people often raise is how and why stupid people can reach positions of power and consequence.
The Power of Stupidity:
When confronted with a stupid individual you are completely at his mercy.
The Fourth Law: Non-stupid people always underestimate the damaging power of stupid individuals. Non-stupid people constantly forget that at all times and places under any circumstances to deal and/or associate with stupid people infallibly turns out to be a costly mistake.
The Fourth Law Explained: You can't outmanoeuvre stupid
The Fifth Law: A stupid person is the most dangerous type of person. A stupid person is more dangerous than a bandit.
"Insurance can only work in Mediocristan; you should never write an uncapped insurance contract if there is risk of catastrophe. The point is called the catastrophe principle."
"{thick tailed}, extreme events away from the centre of the distribution play a very large role. Black Swans are not "more frequent", they are more consequential. The fattest tail distribution has just one very large extreme deviation, rather than many departures from the norm"
1) I am as conservative as anyone on a clean balance sheet but does $TDG suggest $HEI is just way way too underlevered?
2) Is this too backward looking?Monetary policy (or anything really) doesn't have to play out the way it did in March in the next crisis (did $TDG raise debt post-Fed support?).
3) What are the biggest differences between business models/revenue splits that allow $TDG to carry so much more debt.
"A successful marketplace captures market share not only from incumbents, but creates incremental demand as the simple and reliable experience lure buyers who otherwise might not transact."
$ANGI
"The 150 categories we’ve unlocked to date represent about $50 billion of our current addressable market (*$400 billion TAM*), all of which can now flow through our platform and our earnings."
$ANGI
"There is a whole other category of projects that are sort of medium priced projects that covers about $150 billion in TAM that we’re in the early stages of experimenting with."