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More from @james_d_baird

17 Apr
How Not to Die

Survival sounds trivial, but as the #1 predictor of success, it's underrated. Let's break it down!

In a nutshell, it means:

1. Reducing risk
2. Building strength
3. Navigating crises Image
But why think survival is important?

It's a question worth considering from first principles.

"Deciding whether or not life is worth living is to answer the fundamental question in philosophy.” —Albert Camus
First, our survival is good for the universe.

Some disagree.

They think humanity is bad. We're destroying the earth through pollution, garbage, greenhouse gases, etc.
Read 21 tweets
15 Apr
How to Thrive as a Hunter-Gatherer

A lifestyle advocated by @naval, @balajis, @dvassallo, & more. Let's break it down!

In a nutshell, this means:

1. low risk, high volatility
2. less certainty, more control
3. more adversity, greater strength
4. lots of intensity + leisure
Most career tracks are fragile. One small thing goes wrong and you're jobless. Dangers include:

• AI/robotics
• outsourcing
• pandemics

Things are different for us than our parents.
At our age they could choose from hundreds of robust careers because:

• the economy was booming
• technology was slow(er)
• globalization was low(er)

If something went terribly wrong, it was hard to bounce back, but the overall likelihood of career disruption was much lower.
Read 25 tweets
12 Apr
Good explanations—the key to infinite knowledge.

@DavidDeutschOxf formalized the idea. @naval is a fan. Let’s break it down!

In a nutshell, good explanations are:

1. testable
2. hard to vary
3. extendable
4. creative
Deutsch's model explains why knowledge has compounded since the Enlightenment.

Think about this:

• Knowledge use to double every 500 years
• In 1900, it doubled every 100 years
• Now IBM predicts it doubles every 11-12 hrs 🤯

Why? What changed? Will it keep compounding? Image
In school, your teachers probably picked testability as the key to the scientific revolution, but that's incomplete.

Consider the Greek explanation for winter.

Once a year, Demeter morns for her daughter Persephone, who must travel to live with her abusive husband, Hades.
Read 23 tweets
11 Apr
The Barbell Strategy

@nntaleb pioneered and popularized this approach to investing. Let's break it down!

In a nutshell:

1. put 90% of your money in risk-free assets, protecting your downside.

2. bet 10% on super-risky opportunities, giving you the chance for a big windfall.
In the end, your portfolio looks like an unbalanced barbell 👆🏼

This strategy breaks with the traditional method, which says:

• diversify your investments across industries and pick options that are neither super risky nor super safe.

It looks smart and measured...but...
the traditional method has two problems:

1. You're not actually diversified. One thing in one industry can impact all others (think 2008).

2. You're not exposed to big returns.

In essence: you're picking up nickels in front of a steamroller.
Read 16 tweets

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