How I imagine Alfred Adler would have described investor psychology (1/x)
1. Investors' goal is to show their superiority
- Any drawdown is felt as a threat to their ego, and so they reinforce their belief in their own superiority by doubling down
- Gains are sold in an effort to maintain their self-image of investors who cleverly buy low and sell high
2. Blaming external events is a way to protect a fragile ego.
If a stock disappoints, you are more likely to blame corporate governance, investor sentiment, the Fed, short-sellers or someone else. Taking full accountability is hard because you'll challenge your identity.
3. Cynism is also a way to protect your ego.
If everything around you sucks, then surely you are not the one to blame for any adverse outcomes.
4. Diversification is often used as an excuse as if to say:
"I can do it if I try. But I just want to be prudent".
That way, you won't expose your work and your performance to criticism.
5. People used to "reward-and-punishment education" take cues from daily stock price moves or peer opinions.
Focus on such feedback causes dopamine swings that can make you lose track of the long-term picture.
Adler's anti-dotes
- Think of yourself as a flawed individual with room for improvement
- Accept that some won't approve
- Compare yourself with your ideal self, not others
- Focus on your process, not the outcome
- Ignore past and present, live the moment
- Live below your means
• • •
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Swiss banker wisdom, as retold by Max Gunther (1/x)
1. If you are not worried, you are not risking enough
Humans need adventure, we get satisfaction out of it. Hard to get rich if you try to avoid worry. You're not going to get rich from salary. Play for meaningful stakes. Get over the fear of being hurt. 3-6 stocks are enough.
2: Take profits too soon
Don't be too greedy. Decide what gain you're hoping for and when you reach that point, get out. Long winning streak make the news and get talked about, but they are newsworthy for the very reason that they are rare.
“I have money in the bank that I don’t know what to do with. I have never invested in stocks before. Where do I begin?”
I'm not a financial advisor but I can relate. You want to compound your capital but also be prudent and not gamble. Here is my advice
Some general advice:
• Diversify broadly. If you don't know what you're doing, just buy everything.
• Avoid leverage. Ruin kills compounding.
• Make contrarian bets. Buy before others do.
• Focus on long-term value. The long-term is easier to predict than the short-term.
1. First invest in freehold property with leverage
Most people who buy property do well because:
• True underlying inflation is probably 3%+
• You can use 5x leverage if not more
That causes the return on your initial housing deposit to reach double-digits. Hard to beat.
"How did you go bankrupt?
Gradually, then suddenly."
- Ernest Hemingway
Warning signs in the early "gradual" phase
• Shipments slow down
• Quality slips a bit
• Inventories build compared to sales
• Payables are extended
• Gross margins erode a bit
• Cash balances are falling
Warning signs in the late "gradual" phase
• Production problems
• Material shortages (mgmt tries to conserve cash)
• AR days go up
• Payables > 60 days
• Cash balances low
• Hard to meet payroll
• Credit facilities in technical default
• Employee morale is failing
"You don't know what anything is worth unless you know what can go wrong."
A 2.5-hour interview is perhaps overkill. But Anthony Deden is a smart man.
Key factors he looks at when analysing companies:
Scarcity
Permanence
Independence
What can go wrong?
Would you re-hire CEO if you were the controlling shareholder?
"I have never met a company that has grown subject to just acquisitions... When you look at something reliant on acquisitions or financial engineering, you are looking at an accident waiting to happen."