Swiss banker wisdom, as retold by Max Gunther (1/x)
1. If you are not worried, you are not risking enough
Humans need adventure, we get satisfaction out of it. Hard to get rich if you try to avoid worry. You're not going to get rich from salary. Play for meaningful stakes. Get over the fear of being hurt. 3-6 stocks are enough.
2: Take profits too soon
Don't be too greedy. Decide what gain you're hoping for and when you reach that point, get out. Long winning streak make the news and get talked about, but they are newsworthy for the very reason that they are rare.
3. When the ship starts to sink, don’t pray. Jump
Half your investments will turn sour. Get used to it. Have a plan to get out and do it without hesitation. Get out when the ship starts to sink. Don't wait until it is half submerged. Unless you see tangible improvement, get out.
4: Human behaviour cannot be predicted
Nobody has the faintest idea of what’s going to happen next year. Don’t take economist, market advisers or financial oracles seriously.
Don't base your move on what supposedly will happen. Instead, react to what *does* happen.
5: Chaos is not dangerous until it begins to look orderly
The world of money is one of patternless disorder and utter chaos. Get used to it. A chart line always looks comfortingly orderly, even when what it depicts is chaos.
6: Avoid falling in love with a specific security
Don't get attached to companies. Don't seek the feeling of being surrounded by the old, the familiar. Make moves after careful assessment of risk and reward. And be ready to sever your roots when something more promising comes.
7: A hunch can be trusted if it can be explained
There is solid information stored in your mind. If you get a hunch, ask whether there is a big enough library of data to have generated that hunch. If you've never encountered a similar situation, ignore the hunch.
8. Don't rely on religion
Leaning on supernatural help or "investment gods" lulls you into a dangerously unworried state.
9. Confidence is better than blind optimism
The pro doesn’t have optimism. What he has is confidence. Confidence springs from the constructive use of pessimism. Knowing how you will handle the worst outcomes.
10. Disregard the majority opinion
Don’t let the majority push you around. Arguing with a majority is enormously hard, especially when questions cannot be verified. Often the best time to buy something is when nobody else wants it. Study each situation, make up your own mind.
11: If it doesn’t pay off the first time, forget it
Perseverance can be useful. Persevering in your efforts to learn, improve and grow rich. Just don't fall into the trap of persevering in an attempt to squeeze gains out of any single speculative investment.
12: Don’t take your own long-range plans too seriously
The only long-range plan you need is an intention to get rich. It's hard to predict the future. Instead, re-evaluate your investment every three months to track the progress made.
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How I imagine Alfred Adler would have described investor psychology (1/x)
1. Investors' goal is to show their superiority
- Any drawdown is felt as a threat to their ego, and so they reinforce their belief in their own superiority by doubling down
- Gains are sold in an effort to maintain their self-image of investors who cleverly buy low and sell high
2. Blaming external events is a way to protect a fragile ego.
If a stock disappoints, you are more likely to blame corporate governance, investor sentiment, the Fed, short-sellers or someone else. Taking full accountability is hard because you'll challenge your identity.
“I have money in the bank that I don’t know what to do with. I have never invested in stocks before. Where do I begin?”
I'm not a financial advisor but I can relate. You want to compound your capital but also be prudent and not gamble. Here is my advice
Some general advice:
• Diversify broadly. If you don't know what you're doing, just buy everything.
• Avoid leverage. Ruin kills compounding.
• Make contrarian bets. Buy before others do.
• Focus on long-term value. The long-term is easier to predict than the short-term.
1. First invest in freehold property with leverage
Most people who buy property do well because:
• True underlying inflation is probably 3%+
• You can use 5x leverage if not more
That causes the return on your initial housing deposit to reach double-digits. Hard to beat.
"How did you go bankrupt?
Gradually, then suddenly."
- Ernest Hemingway
Warning signs in the early "gradual" phase
• Shipments slow down
• Quality slips a bit
• Inventories build compared to sales
• Payables are extended
• Gross margins erode a bit
• Cash balances are falling
Warning signs in the late "gradual" phase
• Production problems
• Material shortages (mgmt tries to conserve cash)
• AR days go up
• Payables > 60 days
• Cash balances low
• Hard to meet payroll
• Credit facilities in technical default
• Employee morale is failing
"You don't know what anything is worth unless you know what can go wrong."
A 2.5-hour interview is perhaps overkill. But Anthony Deden is a smart man.
Key factors he looks at when analysing companies:
Scarcity
Permanence
Independence
What can go wrong?
Would you re-hire CEO if you were the controlling shareholder?
"I have never met a company that has grown subject to just acquisitions... When you look at something reliant on acquisitions or financial engineering, you are looking at an accident waiting to happen."