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21 Apr, 9 tweets, 2 min read
ROBERT FRIEDLAND ON COPPER

Mr Friedland, founder and co-chairman of Ivanhoe Mines which explores and develops mines in Africa, said :

"Copper is crucial in electrifying the global economy"

"Mining companies will have to be “real heroes”"
resourcesrisingstars.com.au/news-article/m…
The world is yet to grasp the scale of disruption in replacing fossil fuels, with most people in urban areas unaware of where materials in everyday life come from

“It’s all copper, copper, copper, copper, copper, copper,” he told the CRU World Copper Conference on Tuesday
While the 70-year-old billionaire is taking a long-term view, his words of warning contrast with those of some of his colleagues at the conference who are reluctant to accelerate growth plans in a cyclical market
His comments seem more in line with bullish analysts such as Goldman Sachs’ Nicholas Snowdon, who predicts record-high prices as the metal heads towards the tightest conditions since the mid-2000s
Mining is suffering from years of underinvestment, with America very under-explored because for 20 or 30 years “it wasn’t cool to mine”, Mr Friedland said

Where future supplies come from “is going to be a matter of fervent debate” as will how to tax and regulate them
Copper is a vital part of green infrastructure from grids to wind turbines

Massive investments are needed to electrify economies

The US power grid “is a joke” compared with China’s and needs $13 trillion and “astronomic amounts” of the right metals to get up to scratch, he said
“In the short term, we’ve had a big rise in the price of copper,” Mr Friedland said

"But for the medium term, copper has really become a national security issue. It’s central for what we want to do with our economy"
While the industry should now be seen as part of the solution in global decarbonisation, it also faces challenges to decarbonise, he said

Ore quality around the world is deteriorating, meaning volume has to rise and carbon emissions increase
Mining will need both hydroelectric and nuclear power as well as renewable, he said

People should expect a carbon tax on everything, he said

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More from @jpr007

22 Apr
TESLA CAPACITY MAPS FOR 2021

Ahead of the 2021 Q1 Earning Report next week, here are our Capacity Maps that estimate the Scheduled Production Capacity for each quarter of the current year based on the expected shift crews

We have upgraded to format to show more information

Q1 Image
Q1 shows 179,688 which was very close to to 180,338 units actually produced

Q2 shows 234,375 units

One uncertainty is the output of Model S / Model X after restart this month

If we conservatively allow only 50% of 25,000 units that would lower the total by -12,500

= 222,875 Image
Q3 shows 276,563 units

One uncertainty is the start date for GF4 in Brandenburg

- this is 14,063 units in the above number

Another uncertainty is the ramp rate for GF5 in Austin

- this is 14,063 units in the above number

We could adjust by -14,063 and -7,031 = -21,094 units Image
Read 4 tweets
20 Apr
WOODLANDS FIRE CHIEF FIGHTING FUD ON REPORTING OF VEHICLE CRASH

1. The vehicle did NOT "burn out of control for four hours"

- "our guys got there and out down the fire within two to three minutes" Image
2. The firefighters were working primarily to protect a crime scene

- “We could not tear it apart or move it around to get ‘final extinguishment’ because the fact that we had two bodies in there and it was an investigation-slash-crime scene,” Buck explained Image
3. The initial reports were of a forest fire, not a motor vehicle

- "The first report to emergency dispatchers came at about 9:25 pm on Saturday with reports of a forest fire, not a motor vehicle," Buck said Image
Read 11 tweets
20 Apr
EV startup Lordstown Motors made its way from its home in Ohio to Baja California over the weekend to take place in the brutal 242.8-mile desert race known as the San Felipe 250 as a method of testing and data collection.
thedrive.com/news/40237/lor…
After completing the first 40-mile leg of the race, Matthew Blanchard, Lordstown Motors' director of security and the vehicle's driver, stopped to top off the Endurance's charge
The team also took this opportunity to review telematics data regarding the vehicle's off-road performance and soon determined that it wasn't aligned with what they had expected for the race
Read 14 tweets
18 Apr
NORWAY - STATUS OF EV TRANSITION

NOTE : This is the short-form report - see separate thread with long-form analysis

1. Norway is rapidly advancing towards an EV-only sales environment for Passenger Cars
2. In the process, sales of ICEVs are shrinking fast and may cease by 2023, ahead of government deadlines

- the Red bars in this chart show potential ICEV sales volumes for 2021 and 2022
3. Norway has moved fast on EVs and is well ahead of others, but it still shows a significant annual Supply deficit relative to Natural Demand

This Red triangle represents a Supply shortfall of about 300,000 new vehicles that could be needed by the national fleet by 2028
Read 5 tweets
18 Apr
UNDERSTANDING EVs BY LOOKING AT NORWAY

This is the Long Version for the Cognoscenti and folk who want to really understand and learn

Norway is the leading market in the world in terms of the current Transition to EVs

- and it also has relatively good and timely data sources
So what can we learn from Norway's EV experience that may be useful when looking at other markets ?

1. This chart shows the evolution of Norway's Passenger Car Fleet since 1960
2. The expansion of the Fleet in the early days had some really high growth rates before settling down over time into low single digits, with occaisonal setbacks followed by recoveries of different shapes
Read 27 tweets
17 Apr
LG Energy Solution and General Motors will invest more than $2.3 billion to build another battery cell manufacturing plant in the U.S., the companies announced Friday at an event in the state of Tennessee, where the factory will be located
asia.nikkei.com/Business/Autom…
The plant will be built by Ultium Cells, a U.S.-based joint venture of the two companies, with construction to begin immediately

The facility is scheduled to go online in late 2023 and will create 1,300 jobs
"The addition of our second all-new Ultium battery cell plant in the U.S. with our joint venture partner LG Energy Solution is another major step in our transition to an all-electric future," GM CEO Mary Barra said in a press release
Read 10 tweets

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