Ahead of the 2021 Q1 Earning Report next week, here are our Capacity Maps that estimate the Scheduled Production Capacity for each quarter of the current year based on the expected shift crews
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Q1
Q1 shows 179,688 which was very close to to 180,338 units actually produced
Q2 shows 234,375 units
One uncertainty is the output of Model S / Model X after restart this month
If we conservatively allow only 50% of 25,000 units that would lower the total by -12,500
= 222,875
Q3 shows 276,563 units
One uncertainty is the start date for GF4 in Brandenburg
- this is 14,063 units in the above number
Another uncertainty is the ramp rate for GF5 in Austin
- this is 14,063 units in the above number
We could adjust by -14,063 and -7,031 = -21,094 units
Q4 shows 332,813 units
RAW NUMBERS :
Q1 = 180,338
Q2 = 234,375
Q3 = 276,563
Q4 = 332,813
TOTAL = 1,024, 089 units
Further assessments will be made after each quarterly result
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This is the Long Version for the Cognoscenti and folk who want to really understand and learn
Norway is the leading market in the world in terms of the current Transition to EVs
- and it also has relatively good and timely data sources
So what can we learn from Norway's EV experience that may be useful when looking at other markets ?
1. This chart shows the evolution of Norway's Passenger Car Fleet since 1960
2. The expansion of the Fleet in the early days had some really high growth rates before settling down over time into low single digits, with occaisonal setbacks followed by recoveries of different shapes
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The plant will be built by Ultium Cells, a U.S.-based joint venture of the two companies, with construction to begin immediately
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