Vaccination progress is excellent - but it's worth noting there are disparities. It was good to hear in yesterday's Number 10 press conference that some of these disparities are being reduced.
Let's look at the most recent data (published 14 April, for vaccinations to 7 April)
The first disparity is age. But this is due to prioritization based on risk and makes sense.
But when you combine this with location, you can see that London stands out. More generally, urban areas are likely to be under-vaccinated.
For ethnicity, black people are far less likely to have been vaccinated (as at 7 April)
And the most striking disparity is whether you live in a deprived area. IMD is the Index of Multiple Deprivation and goes from 1 (most deprived) to 10 (least deprived).
Without reducing these inequalities, there is a risk that the virus will re-emerge most strongly in the least deprived communities. Some of these communities may have been highly exposed already, which is a factor that complicates things, as well as correlations between factors.
You are far more likely to have been vaccinated if you are white, from a least deprived, rural area than being black, from a deprived, urban area.
Very hard work is being carried out to reduce these differences in vaccination rates. It's hard work and is very much appreciated.
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Public Health England have updated their analysis of Variants of Concern and Variants under Investigation. It is great that this expert analysis has been published.
Some commentary.
Firstly, the India variant (B.1.617). This has been split. Only B.1.617.1 with E484Q is a Variant under Investigation.
Variants of Concern remain
B.1.1.7 (UK/Kent)
B.1.351 (South Africa)
P.1 (Manaus)
B.1.1.7 with E484K
Several other variants are being monitored.
This is PHE's chart of variant prevalence. As you can see, B.1.1.7 (Kent variant) dominates (purple)
The latest @PHE_uk variant data has been published for the UK. First, the heatmap of new cases.
Significantly:
P1 (Manaus) has increased from 40 to 60 total cases
B.1.617 (India) has increased from 77 to 132 total cases.
B.1.351 (SA) has increased from 600 to 670 total cases
Here is my Covid variants cumulative chart (excluding UK variant).
Here are my heatmaps for detected cases, hospitalizations, vaccines, and variants. Data released 22 April 2021 for cases to 18 April 2021 apart from variants (data to 21 April 2021).
DETECTED CASES
Falling in all age groups. A very good sign. Cases will not yet have been detected as a result of Step 2 (open air pubs etc.)
Here are my updated charts which now highlight the B.1.617 Variant under Investigation (first detected in India) in blue
You can see the 77 cases reported this week as the light blue line
It is not clear from this 'initial report' whether all these cases were detected this week
Here's the same data on a logarithmic scale including B.1.1.7 (Kent)
It is clear that the number of B.1.617 (Variant under Investigation) first detected in India) is of significance.
Further work will be going on by experts at @PHE_uk to determine how significant.
The Roadmap fourth test that 'our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern'.
It is worth remembering that even though the vaccination rollout is going extremely well, not everyone is vaccinated and vaccines are not 100% effective.
"In England, ... 54.9% of the population (95% credible interval: 49.5% to 60.0%) would have tested positive for antibodies against the coronavirus (COVID-19)... on a blood test in the week ending 28 March 2021, suggesting they had the infection in the past or have been vaccinated
Imporant caveat:
"Across all four countries of the UK, there is a clear pattern between vaccination and testing positive for COVID-19 antibodies **but the detection of antibodies alone is not a precise measure of the immunity protection given by vaccination**.