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Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
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22 Apr, 5 tweets, 2 min read
The latest @PHE_UK variant data has been published for the UK. First, the heatmap of new cases.

Significantly:
P1 (Manaus) has increased from 40 to 60 total cases
B.1.617 (India) has increased from 77 to 132 total cases.
B.1.351 (SA) has increased from 600 to 670 total cases
Here is my Covid variants cumulative chart (excluding UK variant).

Note:
P1 (Manaus, red)
B.1.351 (South Africa, purple)
B.1.617 (India, light blue)

nb cumulative chart that depends on testing intensity, some will be cases at the border
And here is my cumulative chart on a log scale, including B.1.1.7 (UK variant)

There has been a great deal of surge testing that will have enabled greater detection.

However, increases in P1, B.1.351, and B.1.617 are all increases that need to be taken seriously.
Finally, here is my commentary on the technical analysis of B.1.617 that has just been published by @PHE_uk

More on the P1 increase. Good to see that all contacts have been traced.

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More from @Dr_D_Robertson

Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
22 Apr
Public Health England have updated their analysis of Variants of Concern and Variants under Investigation. It is great that this expert analysis has been published.

Some commentary.
Firstly, the India variant (B.1.617). This has been split. Only B.1.617.1 with E484Q is a Variant under Investigation.

Variants of Concern remain
B.1.1.7 (UK/Kent)
B.1.351 (South Africa)
P.1 (Manaus)
B.1.1.7 with E484K

Several other variants are being monitored.
This is PHE's chart of variant prevalence. As you can see, B.1.1.7 (Kent variant) dominates (purple)
Read 17 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
22 Apr
Here are my heatmaps for detected cases, hospitalizations, vaccines, and variants. Data released 22 April 2021 for cases to 18 April 2021 apart from variants (data to 21 April 2021).
DETECTED CASES

Falling in all age groups. A very good sign. Cases will not yet have been detected as a result of Step 2 (open air pubs etc.)
Here's the colourblind-safe version
Read 8 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
21 Apr
Vaccination progress is excellent - but it's worth noting there are disparities. It was good to hear in yesterday's Number 10 press conference that some of these disparities are being reduced.

Let's look at the most recent data (published 14 April, for vaccinations to 7 April) Image
The first disparity is age. But this is due to prioritization based on risk and makes sense.

But when you combine this with location, you can see that London stands out. More generally, urban areas are likely to be under-vaccinated. Image
Read 7 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
15 Apr
Here are my updated charts which now highlight the B.1.617 Variant under Investigation (first detected in India) in blue

You can see the 77 cases reported this week as the light blue line

It is not clear from this 'initial report' whether all these cases were detected this week
Here's the same data on a logarithmic scale including B.1.1.7 (Kent)

It is clear that the number of B.1.617 (Variant under Investigation) first detected in India) is of significance.

Further work will be going on by experts at @PHE_uk to determine how significant.
The Roadmap fourth test that 'our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern'.

It is worth remembering that even though the vaccination rollout is going extremely well, not everyone is vaccinated and vaccines are not 100% effective.
Read 5 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
15 Apr
My latest variants charts using data from @PHE_uk

*There is a new VUI B.1.617 (first detected in India) with 77 cases*

~ 8% increase in Kent (B.1.1.7)
~ 10% increase in B.1.351 (SA)
~ 11% in P.1 (Brazil)

Note *cumulative* charts, cases dependent on testing strategy

A thread
Here's the same data including B.1.1.7 and plotting on a log scale
77 appears to be a relatively high number of first detected cases for the B.1.617 Variant under Investigation first detected in India.

See this article for some commentary. I await PHE's expert analysis of the particular risks of B.1.617

forbes.com/sites/williamh…
Read 8 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
14 Apr
The @ONS Infection Survey for antibody and vaccination data has been published here ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…

A thread. Image
"In England, ... 54.9% of the population (95% credible interval: 49.5% to 60.0%) would have tested positive for antibodies against the coronavirus (COVID-19)... on a blood test in the week ending 28 March 2021, suggesting they had the infection in the past or have been vaccinated
Imporant caveat:
"Across all four countries of the UK, there is a clear pattern between vaccination and testing positive for COVID-19 antibodies **but the detection of antibodies alone is not a precise measure of the immunity protection given by vaccination**.
Read 8 tweets

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