"In England, ... 54.9% of the population (95% credible interval: 49.5% to 60.0%) would have tested positive for antibodies against the coronavirus (COVID-19)... on a blood test in the week ending 28 March 2021, suggesting they had the infection in the past or have been vaccinated
Imporant caveat:
"Across all four countries of the UK, there is a clear pattern between vaccination and testing positive for COVID-19 antibodies **but the detection of antibodies alone is not a precise measure of the immunity protection given by vaccination**.
Levelling off in antibody detection for England
Green line: % vaccinated
Blue line: % population with antibodies detected
Decline in antibodies detected in older age groups
Note the fall in over-70s.
These should be getting their second doses, so hopefully this will increase.
Note *there is not 100% antibodies detected even if you're vaccinated (but these vaccines are effective - not 100% effective)
So:
- levelling off in detected antibodies
- particularly for the over-70s
- vaccines give benefits not just through antibodies
- vaccines are effective, but not 100% effective
And
- get vaccinated
- get your second dose when called
- 'cry freedom' isn't a great idea right now.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Here are my updated charts which now highlight the B.1.617 Variant under Investigation (first detected in India) in blue
You can see the 77 cases reported this week as the light blue line
It is not clear from this 'initial report' whether all these cases were detected this week
Here's the same data on a logarithmic scale including B.1.1.7 (Kent)
It is clear that the number of B.1.617 (Variant under Investigation) first detected in India) is of significance.
Further work will be going on by experts at @PHE_uk to determine how significant.
The Roadmap fourth test that 'our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern'.
It is worth remembering that even though the vaccination rollout is going extremely well, not everyone is vaccinated and vaccines are not 100% effective.
"Prisons are highly prone to outbreaks of COVID-19 and consequent raised risks of hospitalisations and deaths (high confidence). Age-standardised mortality rates are significantly higher for prisoners than the general population. ...
" ... Incidence of disease, number and size of outbreaks, hospitalisation and mortality rates in prisons have increased markedly in wave 2 compared to wave 1 (high confidence). Prisons can act as amplifiers for community infection."
1. The vaccine deployment programme continues successfully 2. Evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated
...
3. Infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS 4. Our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern