As Credit Suisse is aware, Counterparty credit risk is so complicated, that almost all the formulas in the CRR had to be corrected two years later !

A thread!
Ooops we forgot a floor in the duration calculation (btw this formula is still horribly wrong)
Who’s the bloody intern who forgot the long-term bonds in the notional calculations!?
Seriously, no one told you that a number inside a square root has better be positive? (I mean CCR is complex, but not in *that* sense)
I can’t believe you made the same error TWICE!
When you say it out loud, SF sounds so much nicer than SK
You can’t sum on a null set, dude.
Rule number 1 of mathematical logic : if you open a parenthesis, you have to close it & vice versa. You might not seen it, but the computer will.
I can’t believe they took the wrong hedging set for non-electrical commodities. Rookie error.
Read it 23 times and see if you can find the error.
Yeah, I always make the same mistake when I price a bond. 1%, one Basis point, what’s the difference anyway. It’s only money.
Confusing notional and market value for a Jump to default… this will not end well.
Do you need an aspirin ?
Banking regulations are so complex that, after taking three years to draft a regulation, they have to publish a corrigendum two years after, because it was filled with errors.

I hope you feel reinsured.

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More from @jeuasommenulle

8 Apr
It feels like a big mystery about Credit Suisse remained largely unnoticed.

OK, they took a 4.4bn hit from Archegos… but how did they manage to lose *only* 900m in Q1 and wrongfoot analysts who had all estimated much lower capital ratios?
To understand the magnitude of the mystery: the Q1 consensus *before* the Greensill mess was around 1.4bn.

1.4bn-4.4bn=-3bn. Where the hell did the extra 2.1bn come from?! Not to mention a potential Greensill provision.
Let’s be super generous and assume no Greensill provision (hmmm) and a fabulous Q1 with PBT at 2bn.

We’re still missing 1.5bn. Not exactly small change. Where could this come from?
Read 10 tweets
6 Apr
We finally have the total cost of the Archegos disaster for Credit Suisse: 4.4bn CHF.

There is one question I get A LOT: how is it possible that Credit Suisse took a multi-billion exposure on a “family office”?

I will try to explain - A thread.
First it should be stressed how extraordinary that exposure is.

One of the most important rules in banking (the one which puts Greensill in a *lot* of trouble) is called the large risk limit.

It says max exposure should be 25% of own funds.
In practice, most banks set internal limits around 10% - that would be approx. 5bn CHF.

How on earth did Credit Suisse get to a 4bn+ exposure?

The reason is probably that they didn't even know & I will try to explain why as simply as possible.
Read 37 tweets
6 Apr
The largest European banking group (Finanzgruppe, group of savins banks in Germany) is a big fan of the Banking union and wants you to know it.

Their latest “state of the banking union” report is literally on fire. A thread
You enjoy resolution rules?

“Two early practical cases (Banca Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca) sparked debate about conceptual deficiencies in the resolution mechanism”
Clearly, uniform resolution governance would improve the situation. Not so fast:

”Making the SRB responsible for all banks cannot be justified either economically or politically”
Read 12 tweets
31 Mar
We have the same kind of institution in France. Its effectiveness is not great. Pretty much every application is approved unless reckless. But there was an extraordinary story once... let me tell it to you
This is the kind of institution that will routinely allow members of the ministry of finance to go work for a bank.

But there was this normal guy who was working as a tax inspector. And he had enough of it, he wanted a life change. So he quit and said he wanted to become...
A travelling salesman selling umbrellas ! And believe it or not, the Commission de deontologie (the french equivalent) refused ! Why, will you ask? Surely there is no lobbying or conflict of interest involved !

Why can a treasury guy who authorised big M&A deals can go to a bank
Read 7 tweets
20 Mar
Je vois qu'il y a quelques questions donc je vous livre ma lecture éclairée du décret Absurdistan

1) on peut se promener avec sa famille mais pas faire du sport avec eux. Le premier que je vois courir avec son enfant c'est 135€. On marche !
2) on peut se promener dans un rayon de 10km ...mais si le chien est avec vous alors c'est max 1km.

3) on peut faire ses courses pro dans un rayon de 30km - mais attention, surtout ne pas prendre son chien.
4) Les vendeurs de graines et les luthiers sont bien en commerces essentiels - je vous sentais inquiet.

5) on peut se déplacer dans le cadre de l'acquisition ou la location d'un bien immobilier- mais seulement si c'est une résidence principale.
Read 5 tweets
14 Mar
An optimistic Coronavirus thread, & not only about the corona you know!

There are 4 others widespread human coronaviruses (& 2 rare ones) and most of the time, they only give you a common cold.

Why is it important, if SARS-CoV-2 is different?

Meet OC43.
As I said, OC43 will only give you a cold. Sometimes it gives a bad respiratory infection, but it's rare, and no one really cares about OC43. But it hasn't always been like that!
Recent research (dr.dk/nyheder/viden/…) suggests OC43 was responsible for the "Russian flu" of 1890
In many ways, that pandemic was eerily similar to the Covid one - e.g. see this great story (sorry, in French). It killed more than 1 million people and spread like a wildfire.

vidal.fr/actualites/262…
Read 8 tweets

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